Looking ahead to UVA

[Go Budaw]

Virginia threw their ace today (Andrew Abbot), and there seems to be a considerable drop off to their other starters after him.

Seems like we will see either Mike Vasil or Nate Savino. Neither has a ton of swing and miss stuff.

Vasil - 74.2 IP / 4.82 ERA / 65 K’s / .311 BA allowed
Savino - 53.2 IP / 3.86 ERA / 34 K’s / .269 BA allowed

In their batting order they have just two guys over .300 BA on the season, and only 3 guys over .800 OPS. Nobody with double digit HR’s.

In summary, it’s easy to see on paper why they were a 3-seed. But, they’ve been playing great baseball for 3 weeks now, so obviously we can’t take anything for granted. We need Mac to show up with his mind right like Bednar did tonight. And, perhaps even more importantly, we need to start hitting the damn ball in Omaha for a change.

 

[MSUDC11]

Actually expect them to start Griff McGarry. He started Game 2 of their Super and was outstanding. Seven shutout innings with 10 K’s. He struggled in the Regional, however. He is basically Eric Cerentola’s doppelgänger. 0-5 record, 6.06 ERA, 40 walks in 35.2 innings, but teams only hit .165 against him. He has electric stuff when he is on, but command has been a major issue at times. We have to have patient AB’s.

They have an excellent bullpen so the best path to victory is to jump ahead early and make them play catch-up. Offensively they aren’t great, if MacLeod has good command I think he can have a strong outing.

 

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

The way I see it, there are no national seeds, 3-seeds, etc. once you make it to Omaha. If you can make it to Omaha, you can win it all. Virginia lost to Vanderbilt in the 2014 finals as the No. 3 national seed, then beat Vanderbilt in the 2015 finals as a regional 3-seed.

Season stats also don’t mean as much. I expect they will throw McGarry Tuesday. His season stats aren’t impressive, but his start in the super was outstanding, with the season on the line.

We need a good start from MacLeod and a good offensive performance. We’re where we want to be.

 

[thekimmer]

UVA concerns me a bit for the exact opposite reason they should....

Virginia threw their ace today (Andrew Abbot), and there seems to be a considerable drop off to their other starters after him.

Seems like we will see either Mike Vasil or Nate Savino. Neither has a ton of swing and miss stuff.

Vasil - 74.2 IP / 4.82 ERA / 65 K’s / .311 BA allowed
Savino - 53.2 IP / 3.86 ERA / 34 K’s / .269 BA allowed

In their batting order they have just two guys over .300 BA on the season, and only 3 guys over .800 OPS. Nobody with double digit HR’s.

In summary, it’s easy to see on paper why they were a 3-seed. But, they’ve been playing great baseball for 3 weeks now, so obviously we can’t take anything for granted. We need Mac to show up with his mind right like Bednar did tonight. And, perhaps even more importantly, we need to start hitting the damn ball in Omaha for a change.

It's because they really shouldn't be here. Because on paper they should be completely outmatched. I think the term 'team of destiny' is a bit melodramatic but they have the hallmarks of fresno state or coastal carolina. That concerns me. Of course they have really lived a charmed life so far. They got put in a weak regional that wasn't hosted by the 1 seed. They then drew a super opponent won by another 3 seed and played on a neutral site where they had already played the regional. They did beat UT but then tenn is an outscore you with homeruns type team that is not built to win the pitcher's duels that characterize Omaha although the ball has jumped out more than usual so far. Hopefully the clock will strike midnight on cinderella tuesday evening.

 

[patdog]

The way I see it, there are no national seeds, 3-seeds, etc. once you make it to Omaha.

Regional seeds of the last 21 national champions:
1 (national seed) - 10
1 (8-16 seed) - 6
2 - 2
3 - 2
4 - 1

Obviously you can't take anything for granted. But I'm betting on the #1 seeds.

 

[Nunya.sixpack]

Let's hope they don't get too crazy at the Omaha zoo today.

 

[Russ Wheeler]

The way I see it, there are no national seeds, 3-seeds, etc. once you make it to Omaha. If you can make it to Omaha, you can win it all. Virginia lost to Vanderbilt in the 2014 finals as the No. 3 national seed, then beat Vanderbilt in the 2015 finals as a regional 3-seed.

Season stats also don’t mean as much. I expect they will throw McGarry Tuesday. His season stats aren’t impressive, but his start in the super was outstanding, with the season on the line.

We need a good start from MacLeod and a good offensive performance. We’re where we want to be.

I would agree with this, with a couple of caveats:

1) In the newer era/cycle of bats/balls that began transitioning in 2015 and theoretically completed in 2018, it does seem like it's gotten more chalky with less cinderellas;
2) Virginia 2015 was cinderella in record only, they had a LOT of injuries that year, and got them back in the postseason. They were always a national seed sort of team.

But this does have shades of Kumar Rocker 2019 in it. Outstanding stuff who got it together late.

 

[She Mate Me]

Let's hope they don't get too crazy at the Omaha zoo today.

That place is amazing!!

I learned some stuff there. They have an incredible Great Ape collection.

Orangutans are much bigger than I thought. Seem to be very gentle but could easily tear your arms off if it came to mind.

 

[Bulldog from Birth]

That stat is grossly skewed by the fact that so many more 1 seeds make it to Omaha than 2, 3, and 4 seeds. There have only been two 4 seeds to make it to Omaha the last 21 years. Yet one won it all. 15 3-seeds have made it. Two won it all. That’s a slightly higher rate of winning it a than if you put the 8 teams in a hat and picked one out at random.

Russ Wheeler is right. Any team that makes it to Omaha is just as much a threat to win it all as anyone else, barring there being a team or two with vastly superior talent in the field. I don’t see that this year unless Rocker and Leiter both revert to their peak form from March/April.

Regional seeds of the last 21 national champions:
1 (national seed) - 10
1 (8-16 seed) - 6
2 - 2
3 - 2
4 - 1

Obviously you can't take anything for granted. But I'm betting on the #1 seeds.

 

[MarkDallas]

Actually expect them to start Griff McGarry...

Griff McGarry sounds like a made up name.

 

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

Regional seeds of the last 21 national champions:
1 (national seed) - 10
1 (8-16 seed) - 6
2 - 2
3 - 2
4 - 1

Obviously you can't take anything for granted. But I'm betting on the #1 seeds.

Higher seeds have an advantage getting to Omaha. But higher seed is much less of a predictor of outcome in Omaha.

	higher seed win-loss
2015	6-9
2016	1-8
2017	13-3
2018	11-5
2019	8-6
2021	4-5 (so far)
total	43-36 (54%)

<tbody>
</tbody>

(I ignored games between non-national seeds with the same regional seed.)

 

[$altyDawg]

Sounds like a co-anchor to Ron Burgundy.

 

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

Fair enough. As I showed in another post, lower seeds have won a bunch of games, but 2017-19 was very good to higher seeds.

 

[Go Budaw]

Looks like teams actually hit .225 against him (not .165) but everything else is correct.
That would be an interesting move on UVA’s part to put him out there….I’m not sure one good outing against Dallas Baptist is an omen for being successful in Omaha against a high end SEC team, with his control issues it might be a recipe for disaster. But we’ll see if that’s what they do.

 

[She Mate Me]

That stat is grossly skewed by the fact that so many more 1 seeds make it to Omaha than 2, 3, and 4 seeds. There have only been two 4 seeds to make it to Omaha the last 21 years. Yet one won it all. 15 3-seeds have made it. Two won it all. That’s a slightly higher rate of winning it a than if you put the 8 teams in a hat and picked one out at random.

Russ Wheeler is right. Any team that makes it to Omaha is just as much a threat to win it all as anyone else, barring there being a team or two with vastly superior talent in the field. I don’t see that this year unless Rocker and Leiter both revert to their peak form from March/April.

This is a solid point, but I will say that the years we have made it to Omaha as less than a 1 seed seem to have been **** the bed and go home years. Someone may prove me wrong on that remembrance.

 

[Ralph Cramden]

I'm looking forward to seeing our batting against a guy with a 6.06 ERA. Should be fun

 

[Go Budaw]

It's because they really shouldn't be here. Because on paper they should be completely outmatched. I think the term 'team of destiny' is a bit melodramatic but they have the hallmarks of fresno state or coastal carolina. That concerns me. Of course they have really lived a charmed life so far. They got put in a weak regional that wasn't hosted by the 1 seed. They then drew a super opponent won by another 3 seed and played on a neutral site where they had already played the regional. They did beat UT but then tenn is an outscore you with homeruns type team that is not built to win the pitcher's duels that characterize Omaha although the ball has jumped out more than usual so far. Hopefully the clock will strike midnight on cinderella tuesday evening.

They concern me the same way every team in Omaha concerns me. They can beat us if they play well, sure. But, if you’re drawing it up as far as who you want to play and how, a 3-seed team in the winner’s bracket game to move within a game of the finals with one of your decent starters and your full bullpen available is a pretty desirable position to be in. We need to take full advantage of the opportunity.

 

[Seinfeld]

Agree completely. Whether it’s a team with star pitching, an explosive lineup, or one that’s just hot right now, everybody’s good at this point.

That said, if our realistic options after winning a game 1 in Omaha were either Vandy, Tennessee, NC State, or Virginia… I’m taking Virginia all day, every day. They may play out of their minds tomorrow, but having Macleod and a full pen against Virginia to stay in the winner’s circle is about as good a scenario as you could draw up

Edited to add: I just can’t say enough as to how huge last night’s performance was. Bednar, Sims, and even Cumbest with the huge hit down the line to score a 2nd run early. I’m not crowning this team as champs, but that was a championship level performance

 

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

I'm looking forward to seeing our batting against a guy with a 6.06 ERA. Should be fun

I'm hoping for more offense too, but McGarry is better than his season stats. His last outing was 7 scoreless innings in an elimination super regional game against a team with a better slugging % than anyone in Omaha. He also did that while his team was giving him no cushion. He left in the 8th in a 0-0 game.

 

[Herbert Nenninger]

Griff McGarry sounds like a made up name.

Zebulon Vermillion says hold my birth certificate.

 

[thekimmer]

The other thing about virginia that I am not looking forward to is they now have a story in the stands that we will have to endure about 9000 cuts to the seats tomorrow. Not that it isn't an inspiring story. I sincerely am happy the man beat cancer and wish he and his family the best. I just wish they would cover this stuff outside the game especially when it involves essentially rooting against my team.

 

[Go Budaw]

This is a solid point, but I will say that the years we have made it to Omaha as less than a 1 seed seem to have been **** the bed and go home years. Someone may prove me wrong on that remembrance.

Your memory is mostly correct, except for 2018 where we got to the semis but couldn’t close the deal against Oregon State. We were a 2-seed that year.

2007 - We went 2 and Q as a 2-seed….looked terrible in both games.

1998 - in the old 48 team format, I think they reseeded in Omaha based on the number of regional hosts that advanced. We were the 8-seed as we won A&M’s regional from the loser’s bracket. We actually upset UF in Game 1, but then got beat twice by USC and LSU I think.

1997 - We were the 8-seed again although we won our regional at DNF. Lost a close won in the opener to Alabama with DuBose on the mound, beat UCLA, then lost again to Alabama to go home.

All other trips in the past 30 years, we have been a 1-seed in the 64 team format.

 

[Ralph Cramden]

One great outing does not negate getting touched up for 6 runs on average. Hopefully he will not have the second best game of his year against us.

 

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

One great outing does not negate getting touched up for 6 runs on average. Hopefully he will not have the second best game of his year against us.

I'm hoping we hit him, and I won't be surprised if we do. I just think of all 8 teams, Virginia's record/stats are the least relevant in Omaha. They are obviously a different team than they were in the regular season. And as far as sample, McGarry's game against Dallas Baptist is more relevant than any other outing. And his season stats don't provide any consolation to DBU.

But you're right: Expect performance to revert to the mean. We just don't know that will happen Tuesday. And Tuesday is all that matters.

 

[$altyDawg]

Just one more reason why I turn my radio over to 107.9 and listen to Jim call it.

 

[ShrubDog]

UVA has had a good bit of air time on the screens around the house the past several weeks. They have won 4 or so elimination games. They have benefited from the most timely hitting I have seen this post season. They have a true character sidearm reliever named Stephen Schoch. I was surprised they didn’t use him last week because they call him BigDonkey47.

 

[Junction John]

I think they just mispelt Gary McGriff. Crime Dog's son.

 

[Bulldog from Birth]

In 1997, when we were a 2-seed in the Starkville Regional, this was the old 8-regional format. So we were the equivalent of today’s “1 seed but not a national seed.” So we’ve really only been in Omaha as a 2/3 seed 3 times….in 1998, 2007, and 2018. Results have been mixed, finishing anywhere from a 3rd place tie to 2 and Q. It’s just not a large enough sample size though make a determination for this discussion. While we were a bit out of our league in 2007, our teams in 1998 and 2018 were quite strong. Watching either of those teams win a national championship at the end shouldn’t have shocked anyone.

 

[Ralph Cramden]

True enough. He could play out of his mind. I just like averages. But he could have a no hitter one outing and get rocked for 12 the next

 

[thekimmer]

Actually expect them to start Griff McGarry. He started Game 2 of their Super and was outstanding. Seven shutout innings with 10 K’s. He struggled in the Regional, however. He is basically Eric Cerentola’s doppelgänger. 0-5 record, 6.06 ERA, 40 walks in 35.2 innings, but teams only hit .165 against him. He has electric stuff when he is on, but command has been a major issue at times. We have to have patient AB’s.

They have an excellent bullpen so the best path to victory is to jump ahead early and make them play catch-up. Offensively they aren’t great, if MacLeod has good command I think he can have a strong outing.

Yeah, this guy actually has Cerantola like numbers but only came on in the post season to post a good performance. Almost like they rolled the dice with him and it worked out for them that one time. Question is will it work again? He's been around a while and was their friday night guy last year.

Thing is whoever they pitch we MUST be patient. Make them prove they can throw strikes and especially throw plus pitches late in the count. The worst thing we can do is go up there hacking at the first thing that comes within a foot of the plate and turn the inning over in 8 pitches.

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

If it is McGarry, UVA is 2-8 on the season in games he starts, obviously he won the DBU game. The other win was against Old Dominion in the regionals, but he did not pitch well, giving up 3 runs and 4 walks in 3 innings.

Looks like he has swing and miss stuff and pitched really well last weekend, but he has been erratic in his other nine starts to say the least. If it is McGarry, hopefully lighting doesn’t strike twice.

ETA- Their bullpen is phenomenal though. Even with Wyatt pitching three innings yesterday they have a ton of high quality arms. Do not want to be in a situation late in the game tomorrow where we need to score against their pen.

 

[thekimmer]

I'm hoping for more offense too, but McGarry is better than his season stats. His last outing was 7 scoreless innings in an elimination super regional game against a team with a better slugging % than anyone in Omaha. He also did that while his team was giving him no cushion. He left in the 8th in a 0-0 game.

Looks like he's a strike out kind of pitcher too. 61 Ks in 129 ABs. Control appears to have been his achillies heel. 40 walks in 35.2 innings pitched. Nobody even close to those numbers on their staff. Perhaps he figured out his control in his last start. Hopefully he forgets it again if he pitches against us.

 

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

If it is McGarry, UVA is 2-8 on the season in games he starts, obviously he won the DBU game. The other win was against Old Dominion in the regionals, but he did not pitch well, giving up 3 runs and 4 walks in 3 innings.

Looks like he has swing and miss stuff and pitched really well last weekend, but he has been erratic in his other nine starts to say the least. If it is McGarry, hopefully lighting doesn’t strike twice.

ETA- Their bullpen is phenomenal though. Even with Wyatt pitching three innings yesterday they have a ton of high quality arms. Do not want to be in a situation late in the game tomorrow where we need to score against their pen.

We are definitely the more tested team. They only have four wins vs. Super Regional teams. Two in the Super Regional (every Omaha team has two wins vs Super Regional teams) and one in the ACC Tournament (vs. Notre Dame). The other came Sunday vs. Tennessee in Omaha. Abbott started 2 of those 4 wins. He is unavailable. McGarry and Savino started the other two wins (vs. DBU). We've beaten 6 Super Regional teams without Bednar. MacLeod started 3 of those wins: Texas (February), @ LSU, and Ole Miss.

You're right about their bullpen. They have plenty of pitching to win Tuesday. We just need to score runs and take control early.

Statistically, it looks like the 1, 3, 4, and 5 holes are the most dangerous spots in their order: Z. Gelof, Teel (best hitter), Ortiz, and Kent. All with 8+ home runs. Their best hitter is left-handed Teel, so hopefully MacLeod can contain him. The other three most dangerous hitters hit from the right side.

We should be confident and expect to win, but I'm not phased by the 3 next to Virginia's name. They are playing well and can beat anyone.

 

[WilCoDawg]

I loved Grape Ape too!**

 

[WilCoDawg]

I don’t care what his ERA is. We seem to make even the worst pitchers look like Roger Clements.

 

[MSUDC11]

I don’t care what his ERA is. We seem to make even the worst pitchers look like Roger Clements.

We were averaging almost 9 runs a game in the NCAA Tournament before facing a protected Top 15 pick last night.

 

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

postseason stats

Comparing our stats over 7 NCAA games to Virginia's 9 NCAA games:

	BA	OB%	SLG%	OPS	R/G	HR/G
Mississippi State	0.284	0.363	0.492	0.855	7.6	1.43
Virginia	0.282	0.358	0.466	0.824	5.7	1.56

<tbody>
</tbody>

	ERA	H/9IP	WHIP	BB/9IP	K/9IP	K/BB	FLD%
Mississippi State	5.08	8.13	1.26	3.19	13.4	4.18	0.980
Virginia	2.92	7.09	1.12	3.04	12.4	4.07	0.977

<tbody>
</tbody>

 

[TheStateUofMS]

^^^this

 

[TheStateUofMS]

I think Vandy for sure is more talented than us. NCST probably scares me the second most because of their offense.

ETA: Arizona would be second, third would be NCST

 

[PirateDawg]

Notre Dame dominated the ACC so . . .

Virginia threw their ace today (Andrew Abbot), and there seems to be a considerable drop off to their other starters after him.

Seems like we will see either Mike Vasil or Nate Savino. Neither has a ton of swing and miss stuff.

Vasil - 74.2 IP / 4.82 ERA / 65 K’s / .311 BA allowed
Savino - 53.2 IP / 3.86 ERA / 34 K’s / .269 BA allowed

In their batting order they have just two guys over .300 BA on the season, and only 3 guys over .800 OPS. Nobody with double digit HR’s.

In summary, it’s easy to see on paper why they were a 3-seed. But, they’ve been playing great baseball for 3 weeks now, so obviously we can’t take anything for granted. We need Mac to show up with his mind right like Bednar did tonight. And, perhaps even more importantly, we need to start hitting the damn ball in Omaha for a change.

Looking forward to the game!