JoeLeeSocks and BTC

[NTDawg]

We sitting just under $37k. Did you said that you were buying at 30K or in the 30's? I plan on buying more, probably not enough to make a difference but enough to make my wife mad, but I don't want to buy too soon like I have done every other time.

BTW curious about your name because I know that you are real but there is no such thing as Joe Lee Socks

 

[dawgstudent]

Joe Lee Dunn never wore socks.

 

[NTDawg]

That's right. Therefore they didn't exist

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

Dawgstudent covered it... Just figured when I made my account only those late 90's fans would get the reference to Joe Lee Dunn's lack of gold toes. Even then, most wouldn't know.

Now for BTC. You basically have what I said. Been a little news out of China lately, that expedited it but here is my chart. Red lines are resistance which means when the price hits it, it will trigger selling. The green line is support, which is where it should get bought back up. It's always a battle to see if the bulls are bears will break resistance or support respectively.

When I made this chart a few weeks ago, I figured BTC would follow the white line's path, but also was prepared for the dashed red line. That's where the $30k number came from... Its an area with a lot of buying action back in January which represents institutional money IMO. That's where that number comes from. Big money well sell at profits and just quite once it gets to their entry... they let retail buy it back up and rinse and repeat... It's called distribution. Usually works on a downward slope, but with BTC it can go straight down at times.

Anyhow here is the chart. I sold yesterday at resistance of $43k counting on a likely retest of that $30k range. Seems to be working out so far. If we get there, I will buy back in, but watch price action.

View attachment 20348

The faint gold lines are the trend lines since it started falling on the 12th. Until broken, I think $25-30K is on the table.


Here's another chart using fibonacci levels that show my overall attitude. I am in trading mode right now between $30k and $52K. If it goes below $30K I am not touching it. As for timeline... based on the charts I am guessing June-July would be when another bull market would start if it does. Coincidentally, the Federal Reserve is releasing a report this summer on their own Central Bank Digital Currency. I read something today if that actually happens, then by law, all other digital currencies become illegal in the US. The same way we can't start a paper currency to compete with the dollar. Not sure about the teeth, but something to monitor... It's why I only live in BTC world. I think BTC can survive as Digital Gold, but nothing will survive long term as a digital currency.

View attachment 20349

FYI, I would never try to buy the bottom on something this wild. Catch your spot on the ride up to make sure it doesn't knife through. You will see if big buyers jump in, it will bounce hard and fast like that AGD sorority girl from Belzoni did in the late 90's.

 

[Mobile Bay]

View attachment 20350

 

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

trading isn't for everyone (it's for very few actually)

If you're one of the 99% that can't beat the market after you account for fees and taxes, you could always just buy and hold for 4+ years. It has worked for 100% of the people who have tried it.

View attachment 20351
https://stats.buybitcoinworldwide.com/stock-to-flow/

View attachment 20352
https://stats.buybitcoinworldwide.com/yearly-candles/

Remember, the CAGR of bitcoin is 200% over the last decade. So if you can't beat that inclusive of fees and taxes trading it over multiple years, you probably shouldn't.

 

[Mobile Bay]

Let me hurry down to my local gas station and make a completely unregulated "investment" then.

 

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

Let me hurry down to my local gas station and make a completely unregulated "investment" then.

wut?

 

[Mobile Bay]

wut?

I can buy bitcoin through a kiosk at the gas station by my house. Right next to such quality investments as Horny Goat Weed pills and CBD gummies.

 

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

I can buy bitcoin through a kiosk at the gas station by my house. Right next to such quality investments as Horny Goat Weed pills and CBD gummies.

Similarly, I sold all my USD when learned of the existence of ATMs.

Also, don't take out a mortgage to buy a house because payday loans exist.

 

[Mobile Bay]

Similarly, I sold all my USD when learned of the existence of ATMs.

Also, don't take out a mortgage to buy a house because payday loans exist.

The first time I walked into the Silver Star I had $50 on me. I lost $20 on slots and put $10 in another pocket for dinner. I sat down at the roulette table. Six or so hours later I got up and walked out, having paid for my friend and I's steak dinner with $600 or so. I guess I made a good investment then too.

 

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

The first time I walked into the Silver Star I had $50 on me. I lost $20 on slots and put $10 in another pocket for dinner. I sat down at the roulette table. Six or so hours later I got up and walked out, having paid for my friend and I's steak dinner with $600 or so. I guess I made a good investment then too.

Do that every week for the next three years and get back to me.

View attachment 20353

 

[Mobile Bay]

Do that every week for the next three years and get back to me.

View attachment 20353

Stick with BTC for the next 40 years and get back to me.

 

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

Stick with BTC for the next 40 years and get back to me.

That's the point.

View attachment 20354

 

[oxfordrebel22]

Dawgstudent covered it... Just figured when I made my account only those late 90's fans would get the reference to Joe Lee Dunn's lack of gold toes. Even then, most wouldn't know.

Now for BTC. You basically have what I said. Been a little news out of China lately, that expedited it but here is my chart. Red lines are resistance which means when the price hits it, it will trigger selling. The green line is support, which is where it should get bought back up. It's always a battle to see if the bulls are bears will break resistance or support respectively.

When I made this chart a few weeks ago, I figured BTC would follow the white line's path, but also was prepared for the dashed red line. That's where the $30k number came from... Its an area with a lot of buying action back in January which represents institutional money IMO. That's where that number comes from. Big money well sell at profits and just quite once it gets to their entry... they let retail buy it back up and rinse and repeat... It's called distribution. Usually works on a downward slope, but with BTC it can go straight down at times.

Anyhow here is the chart. I sold yesterday at resistance of $43k counting on a likely retest of that $30k range. Seems to be working out so far. If we get there, I will buy back in, but watch price action.

View attachment 20348

The faint gold lines are the trend lines since it started falling on the 12th. Until broken, I think $25-30K is on the table.


Here's another chart using fibonacci levels that show my overall attitude. I am in trading mode right now between $30k and $52K. If it goes below $30K I am not touching it. As for timeline... based on the charts I am guessing June-July would be when another bull market would start if it does. Coincidentally, the Federal Reserve is releasing a report this summer on their own Central Bank Digital Currency. I read something today if that actually happens, then by law, all other digital currencies become illegal in the US. The same way we can't start a paper currency to compete with the dollar. Not sure about the teeth, but something to monitor... It's why I only live in BTC world. I think BTC can survive as Digital Gold, but nothing will survive long term as a digital currency.

View attachment 20349

FYI, I would never try to buy the bottom on something this wild. Catch your spot on the ride up to make sure it doesn't knife through. You will see if big buyers jump in, it will bounce hard and fast like that AGD sorority girl from Belzoni did in the late 90's.

You’re a gigantic resource to this board. And although I know I’m the enemy to some on here, who use their parents WiFi (I kid, I kid) I really appreciate it. I’ve learned a lot from you. I definitely owe you a beer sometime if I’m ever in Starkville for a game that you’re at.

 

[PineGroveBully]

Yea right, And Grizzly Adams had a beard.

 

[Apoplectic_Objurgator]

Quincy for the when!

 

[Nicephorus]

Dawgstudent covered it... Just figured when I made my account only those late 90's fans would get the reference to Joe Lee Dunn's lack of gold toes. Even then, most wouldn't know.

Now for BTC. You basically have what I said. Been a little news out of China lately, that expedited it but here is my chart. Red lines are resistance which means when the price hits it, it will trigger selling. The green line is support, which is where it should get bought back up. It's always a battle to see if the bulls are bears will break resistance or support respectively.

When I made this chart a few weeks ago, I figured BTC would follow the white line's path, but also was prepared for the dashed red line. That's where the $30k number came from... Its an area with a lot of buying action back in January which represents institutional money IMO. That's where that number comes from. Big money well sell at profits and just quite once it gets to their entry... they let retail buy it back up and rinse and repeat... It's called distribution. Usually works on a downward slope, but with BTC it can go straight down at times.

Anyhow here is the chart. I sold yesterday at resistance of $43k counting on a likely retest of that $30k range. Seems to be working out so far. If we get there, I will buy back in, but watch price action.

View attachment 20348

The faint gold lines are the trend lines since it started falling on the 12th. Until broken, I think $25-30K is on the table.


Here's another chart using fibonacci levels that show my overall attitude. I am in trading mode right now between $30k and $52K. If it goes below $30K I am not touching it. As for timeline... based on the charts I am guessing June-July would be when another bull market would start if it does. Coincidentally, the Federal Reserve is releasing a report this summer on their own Central Bank Digital Currency. I read something today if that actually happens, then by law, all other digital currencies become illegal in the US. The same way we can't start a paper currency to compete with the dollar. Not sure about the teeth, but something to monitor... It's why I only live in BTC world. I think BTC can survive as Digital Gold, but nothing will survive long term as a digital currency.

View attachment 20349

FYI, I would never try to buy the bottom on something this wild. Catch your spot on the ride up to make sure it doesn't knife through. You will see if big buyers jump in, it will bounce hard and fast like that AGD sorority girl from Belzoni did in the late 90's.

The USD CBDC paper will be interesting to see. Feel like we’ll see some sort of cooperation with the private sector here. Having a completely government controlled digital currency seems like it would stifle innovation and likely introduce lots of inefficiencies. As someone put it, the US shouldn’t try to “out China” China with a centrally controlled digital currency. Personally, think we’ll see some sort of “whitelist” of vetted banks and other institutions who are allowed to interact with the CBDC dollar. They’ll then issue the dollars through their own system or publicly tradeable “stablecoins” like USDC backed with “digital dollars”.

Lot of people don’t realize how transformative this could be, but if the government is able to issue “digital dollars” directly to consumer “digital wallets” then you basically eliminated the need for bank accounts which would virtually collapse a big chunk of the current banking system (can’t issue loans if you don’t have any deposits). While this may fly in China, doubt it will here.

Jeremy Allaire who is CEO of circle which is involved with USDC stablecoin is a good follow for info on this. Clearly he’s biased towards private sector cooperation though. At this point, USDC is the closest thing to a CBDC. A stablecoin centrally controlled and backed by US companies.

https://twitter.com/jerallaire?s=21

 

[JungRebel]

USDC will need to be heavily vetted and audited. I dont think they've done even an attestation since February. This is exciting news, however, as you mention. Viable banks entering the space make for valid off ramps. If I could link my Metamask to my brokerage account I would have no need for a savings account at a bank.

OR for complicated tax software.

All that said, seems a bit too good to be true. I get the feeling we are due for some bad news before any of this comes to pass. The fact is however that there is an unregulated $2T global industry that needs to be sorted out before it gets too big for itself. Players like USDC and USDT need to be audited like banks if they are going to be playing the role of a bank.

What's more, CEXs like Coinbase need to be held accountable for their lack of customer service. **** like that doesnt happen with legitimate financial institutions.

As for the question of the future of banking, I'll just say that FDIC insurance and reliable tech are the ONLY reasons I have a savings account. If the government or private sector can assuage those fears I think we may all can just get along with the future of finance and automation. I have my doubts. Time will tell.

You don't need reserves to lend. Havent for a while, but lending in the crypto space is impossible right now for most loans. That's the whole reason we have credit scores. Would love to see the Defi solution to that dilemma.

 

[Mobile Bay]

Quincy for the when!

Until the government destroys it.

In the 1920's a man could buy a basic suit for five quarters. It's about the same if you look at the value of a true silver quarter today.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

Jung... You seem to be deep in the know on DeFi and I can honestly say that I am clueless. But I do have a little insight on the future of banking. It isn't going anywhere. I saw something recently that if you sat members of congress by which industry gave them the most money over their politcal careers instead of by party you would have 60% in the Financials party, 25% in the Lawyer/Lobbyist party, 5% in the Big Pharma, and a few % each in Farms, Labor, and Energy parties.

The big banks make the rules. The only way "defi" works is if the banks get their pound of flesh of each transaction. Also, the crypto market is no longer $2 trillion. It's $1.3 trillion. It has lost $1.2 trillion in cap in the last 10 days.

The crypto/defi revolution is going to get squashed for now. Something this big is a threat to civilization as we know it. It's not ready to topple governments. It takes centuries to do that kind of thing.

 

[SwampDawg]

Why is the value of Bitcoin expressed in Dollars?

 

[MaroonOil]

Keep buying baby, this is normal for all of you new to this game. BTC swings like this since forever, only difference is the price is big enough that people actually care now. China does stuff like this all the time. All the bears disappeared when we ran up 40-60k the last time. I’m not afraid to say we are now in a bear market but we are, but I promise you, it will pass.

Only difference this time is. Major major Institutions are involved now. Word on the street is someone is trying to liquidate someone, once they have, we go back up. That is BTC.

My favorite Doge is a more sensitive situation, but it is being algo traded(institutions signals galore) & will go up with BTC, of course I say that & it didn’t follow BTC the last few days. The fact remains, too much is happening for it over the next year to not catch easy gains.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

Word on the street huh. This is normal, huh... Well if by normal you mean a 50% drawdown in a few weeks on BTC, then yes its happened a few times in the last 5 years. In both cases the bottom was a long way down and a long time away. DOGE happens to be down 68% and ETH 58% as I type this. This is not just a dip. It's a sustained corrective period or worse.

Everything you post about is some kind of amalgamation of Reddit, Twitter, and Tik Tok memes. Give us some data, signals, buy points, things to watch out for... Word on the street and this is normal, doesn't get you many points in the credibility column.

And for the record, since the last time you were on here pumping DOGE, it's dropped 50%. In about 10 days. I saw lots of people pumping DOGE on twitter at $.04-.05 a few months ago. This move was not made buy the people. It was caused by funds,whales, whatever. It is now in a coordinated drawdown that is designed to take money from retail investors that keep pumping money in on the way up and buy the dips on the way down. A whole lot of people are going to lose money on this crap, hopefully its just playing around money for most though.

 

[UpTheMiddlex3Punt]

Bitcoin floor is 30k. No way it goes below that.

 

[JungRebel]

No doubt on any of your points. Blockchain simply isnt viable tech right now, not for what it wants to do, and perhaps it never will be. The brute fact is that BTC is not a viable currency right now and ETH... it is not overstating the case to call it the worst currency in written history. The entire crypto space is broken if these are the solutions of the future, and unfortunately the average person knows nothing of crypto past BTC and maybe DOGE. The time simply has not come for these innovations, again it may never come. With actors like USDT and USDC in the space we definitely need regulation and I dont see it coming soon. All that said, projects like Maker, Compound, Yearn, and Uni are solid and will be around for the long haul if the space survives at all. Hard to be optimistic now. Crypto is due for a long winter until the tech can scale and frankly the UI is more friendly and people care to learn what is possible. None of the above look to happen in the near future.

I've been mostly in stables for a week or so, and those will remain in stable-stable liquidity pools for a long time until I'm comfortable with the direction the market is going. My opinion of what the tech can achieve it fulfills its promise has not changed, but this is the reality now.

Every year someone cuts one of the corners of the trilemma and declares blockchain a viable tech. It is not. All three problems need to be solved and only then will the promises of Defi be fulfilled. As for banks, well, many an industry with incredible political power has faced the problem of adopt automated solutions or die a slow death. I believe that is coming, blockchain or not, no matter the winners and losers.

 

[MaroonOil]

Been in BTC since the beginning & it always go back up. Not worried, if you are worried about this dip then you don’t need to be in crypto. Period. Instead of sitting here & pointing & explaining to you the whole ups & downs of BTC history, which is rhetorical . Crypto is the future, & that is how I invest, all long. If you are looking to make quick gains, this isn’t for you or leverage up. I’m a BTC whale & telling you everything is going to be okay. If we don’t correct back up a little on Monday I will be in shock but there is no reason to panic. Tesla hasn’t sold any of their BTC & they won’t. BTC will stay in a 30k support range, we are stronger now then the 15-17’ route. This may only last a few months as this country is finally starting to turn a page on COVID

Doge is a speculative gold mine, yep lotto buy. Invest with only what you are willing to lose but the future is bright.
Edit: An effort to make Doge a player is at hand, some already hit the lotto on it. Will say it again, holding for another year or two.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

You are a BTC whale. Which means you have at least 1000 BTC in a wallet currently worth at least $33 million. Yet you still work on the oil rigs....

I think you might be a Kratom whale.

View attachment 20366

 

[MaroonOil]

No oil rig, I provide supply, never the less it is all never enough. Retiring at 40 and it is all set.

These BTC sell offs after ATH have always recovered, don’t miss it. I’m very decentralized to it. You need to look at all cryptocurrency as a 15-20 years down the road investment. Easy to wait, it is proven & worked already for me & many others.

Doge is my new baby, richest man in the world that has conquered fiat & now trying to conquer crypto.

Edit: I’m out of GME until the vote, shorts are out until a new bad position is on. Oh well, AMC is still a good long when America is back to normal.

 

[JungRebel]

No offense but I'll believe you're a whale when .5 BTC hits my TW. I'll verify it for the board.

 

[MaroonOil]

It don’t matter to me what you believe or anyone else. Just know that crypto always recovers. I said BTC might hit 100k in July too, it still just might but the chances now are looking grim until this institutional war ends. It is the dangerous risk of this whole thing, many want the price dropped to control the limited supply in BTC. A lot of new big wallets have appeared..

 

[Nicephorus]

No doubt on any of your points. Blockchain simply isnt viable tech right now, not for what it wants to do, and perhaps it never will be. The brute fact is that BTC is not a viable currency right now and ETH... it is not overstating the case to call it the worst currency in written history. The entire crypto space is broken if these are the solutions of the future, and unfortunately the average person knows nothing of crypto past BTC and maybe DOGE. The time simply has not come for these innovations, again it may never come. With actors like USDT and USDC in the space we definitely need regulation and I dont see it coming soon. All that said, projects like Maker, Compound, Yearn, and Uni are solid and will be around for the long haul if the space survives at all. Hard to be optimistic now. Crypto is due for a long winter until the tech can scale and frankly the UI is more friendly and people care to learn what is possible. None of the above look to happen in the near future.

I've been mostly in stables for a week or so, and those will remain in stable-stable liquidity pools for a long time until I'm comfortable with the direction the market is going. My opinion of what the tech can achieve it fulfills its promise has not changed, but this is the reality now.

Every year someone cuts one of the corners of the trilemma and declares blockchain a viable tech. It is not. All three problems need to be solved and only then will the promises of Defi be fulfilled. As for banks, well, many an industry with incredible political power has faced the problem of adopt automated solutions or die a slow death. I believe that is coming, blockchain or not, no matter the winners and losers.

Where you parking your stables? Been more conservative with my farming until this volatility blows over. Few days high double digit APY not worth the risk right now IMO. Rotated most in uni v3 DAI/USDC pools which pays around 18% APR lately, probably more today. Best thing it rewards in DAI and USDC.

Got some in convex finance too (automated curve farming YFI competitor made by the curve people). Convexfinance.com. It’s new so limited my exposure until more tested.

Little skittish with the higher earning curve pools as a couple of the more exotic stables de-pegged down to .90 at one point today (UST and USDN)

 

[JungRebel]

BUSD-USDT on Autofarm (BSC).
BSCBUSD-BUSD on Viperswap. (That's BUSD bridged from BSC to ONE paired with BUSD bridged from BSC to ETH to ONE. This pool is great for the Harmony Bridge to function.)

Still sticking with an ETH-MATIC LP on Beefy on the Matic network. Not concerned about the losses there, those are long term plays. About to move this over to Autofarm on Polygon, they've got some MATIC to give away.

Picked up some CAKE today at my target price. Staked it for ZIL, another long term play.

I have nothing on the ETH chain.

By the way between you and me I hate all stable coins EXCEPT Dai. It is the only decentralized solution to this problem, but I have to live with USDT and USDC right now, we all do.

 

[JungRebel]

C'mon man, it would really stick it to Joe.

 

[Nicephorus]

BUSD-USDT on Autofarm (BSC).
BSCBUSD-BUSD on Viperswap. (That's BUSD bridged from BSC to ONE paired with BUSD bridged from BSC to ETH to ONE. This pool is great for the Harmony Bridge to function.)

Still sticking with an ETH-MATIC LP on Beefy on the Matic network. Not concerned about the losses there, those are long term plays. About to move this over to Autofarm on Polygon, they've got some MATIC to give away.

Picked up some CAKE today at my target price. Staked it for ZIL, another long term play.

I have nothing on the ETH chain.

By the way between you and me I hate all stable coins EXCEPT Dai. It is the only decentralized solution to this problem, but I have to live with USDT and USDC right now, we all do.

I’m mostly sticking to keeping my stables ins tuff with no impermanent loss for now till volatility eases up some. Honestly, my risk appetite for these newer farms has dropped off considerably the last several months with the increasing amount of hacks and rugpulls you see now (especially on BSC), but I was in a ton of them last summer. Can be very lucrative if your risk appetite is high but sorta got to a point where my stack got big enough where I began to get more conservative with my farming practices. Matic doesn’t seem as bad and I did have some stuff on polygon curve for a bit. There’s been a rash of exploits on BSC mainly from projects copying vulnerable code and not having the actual understanding of it to close known loopholes that have been previously exploited on other protocols. (See Pancake Bunny)

One to look into on ethereum now that gas is getting reasonable again is lixir finance https://lixir.finance/
Due to launch anytime now. Basically it automatically adjusts UNI v3 positions for max return and gives LIX rewards on top of it. Should be pretty good yield just from UNI apy. Thinking I’ll put some here although it’s new so definitely a degree of “smart contract risk” involved.

 

[JungRebel]

Bunny got wrecked. I had 1.03 Bunny staked at the time. Picked up about a dozen during the crash. Not a huge believer in the project but anything connected to PCS will probably do alright unless the BSC chain itself fails or falls out of favor. By the way, gas on ethereum is anything but reasonable still. I am staked pretty good on Polygon but the reason I'm letting it ride is the exit fee back to ethereum. Its absurd and no one should be playing with it except whales. I don't chase new farms except on the Harmony network. The Viper dev is anon but known to the team, Mochi has a multisig set up with them, and Openswap is run by a validator. I feel good about it unless Defi collapses entirely—which is not out of the question.

 

[johnson86-1]

That's the point.

View attachment 20354

That's an irrelevant comparison unless you are planning on saving your assets in actual cash, which is a terrible idea. The right comparison is to what the alternative investment is, which for most people is the stockmarket and for the vast majority of people, will be either the stockmarket or some real estate. Or for people explicitly looking for an inflation/currency hedge, might be gold or other commodities or other currencies.

Obviously Bitcoin has looked good so far, but it doesn't produce anything or have any worth other than as an alternative to the dollar. If it loses appeal, it will be worth basically nothing. If it's fully adopted, it pretty much by definition isn't going to get you any meaningful return beyond inflation. Not saying it's not a good place to park some money still, but comparing it to the value of the dollar doesn't make the case for it.

 

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

bitcoin & traditional assets ROI

That's an irrelevant comparison unless you are planning on saving your assets in actual cash, which is a terrible idea. The right comparison is to what the alternative investment is, which for most people is the stockmarket and for the vast majority of people, will be either the stockmarket or some real estate. Or for people explicitly looking for an inflation/currency hedge, might be gold or other commodities or other currencies.

Obviously Bitcoin has looked good so far, but it doesn't produce anything or have any worth other than as an alternative to the dollar. If it loses appeal, it will be worth basically nothing. If it's fully adopted, it pretty much by definition isn't going to get you any meaningful return beyond inflation. Not saying it's not a good place to park some money still, but comparing it to the value of the dollar doesn't make the case for it.

View attachment 20369

 

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

USD priced in satoshis

Why is the value of Bitcoin expressed in Dollars?

View attachment 20370

If you prefer, we can price USD in satoshis.

 

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

Ray Dalio prefers bitcoin to bonds.

Impressed by Ray Dalio that he can adapt and admit that he needed to do more research. If you don't know who he is, just know every money manager in the world knows who he is. You better believe smart money is buying this correction. I love it for the HODLers. I hate it for the retail investors who panicked and sold.RAY DALIO 2017: #BITCOIN IS A BUBBLE...IT'S NOT AN EFFECTIVE STOREHOLD OF WEALTH.RAY DALIO 2021: "PERSONALLY, I'D RATHER HAVE BITCOIN THAN A BOND."— Neil Jacobs (@NeilJacobs) May 24, 2021