Are we playing good enough to compete for a NC?...

[thekimmer]

You might believe we are already playing well enough and you might be right but if not what needs to change to get us there? While we have a really good team I don't think we are playing at a high enough level at this point to get it done. Here is my list.

1. Get more offensive production out of 1b and LF. Ideally we need both positions to be hitting around .300 but a bare minimum is .250. This is a critical need because I don't think we have much of a chance unless this happens.

2. Must play better defensively. And not just eliminate errors. We have to be able to make the routine plays and make the plus plays to take away hits. This is an important need but maybe not as critical as #1 because of our pitching.

3. We need another lockdown type closer. We have many riches on our pitching staff. Sims is our only lockdown guy but he can't pitch every day. This would be a nice to have and perhaps we can get it out of Smith or Cerantola?

4. We need better mental toughness. We have had a few instances where we have lost focus. A little bad luck has rattled a few pitchers, and we have has some bad ABs at important times. In the stress meat grinder of post season teams who are mentally tough are usually the ones who fare the best.

Others? Agree or disagree?

 

[8dog]

Its gonna be really tough to get to Omaha if we are at risk of getting shut down offensively every game regardless of who is pitching. Just hard for me to believe we can go very far with this lineup.

And the left side of the infield is a sieve. Forsythe at .918. And James probably isnt any better in 3rd base only opportunities

 

[thekimmer]

Its gonna be really tough to get to Omaha if we are at risk of getting shut down offensively every game regardless of who is pitching. Just hard for me to believe we can go very far with this lineup.

And the left side of the infield is a sieve. Forsythe at .918. And James probably isnt any better in 3rd base only opportunities

James fielding at .862 is terrible. He struggles with both the glove and arm which is double trouble over there.

 

[Drebin]

Defense is a problem. And the tighter the spot, the tighter we seem to be defensively.

We don't hit in the clutch. When we need that big hit in that big situation, TA and sometimes Rowdey are the only guys we can count on. Someone has to come through in a big spot with runners on in these close games.

Our starting pitching is inconsistent. Mac and Bednar are great at times, and they lose their command at times. Fristoe is up and down.


I don't see issues getting through a regional or a super if we have the right pairing, but I just don't see where we have the kind of team to make noise in Omaha. But baseball is a funny sport.

 

[randystewart]

I'm in the same boat. Don't get me wrong, I love this team and have watched every game. I just think we are too bad offensively for this to be the year. In conference only games (did that to weed out the bad pitching) our team batting average is .242 which is 12th in the league. 12th in hits, 11th in runs scored. On the season, not just SEC games, we only have 2 regulars hitting above .300, and we have . In contrast, most teams we play have at least 5.
I hate to be negative because this is a fun team to watch, but I just don't see anyone competing for a natty with hitting as bad as ours has been.

 

[MSUDC11]

The biggest thing for me is defense. I think we are good enough on the mound and in situational hitting to go a really long way. But we can’t keep missing these routine plays in key moments.

I think our fans probably harp too much on the “we get totally shut down once a weekend” thing. Doesn’t pretty much everybody? Including the good teams? Arkansas had games against Bama and Auburn where they only scored one run. Had to beat A&M 2-1 in extras last weekend. Vandy looked pretty well shut down by Bednar and Sims on Saturday. It’s going to happen occasionally.

With us, I don’t think our hitting inconsistencies are a mental toughness thing, I think it’s a talent issue at certain positions. I can’t really explain why Hatcher has gone from pretty good hitter to liability at the plate in the last year. But at this point it seems unlikely he drastically turns his season around. So at this point I might really consider going with Clark given that he’s the young guy we are likely counting on to be the future at that position. I hate to say it but if he only hits .220 it’s an improvement from what Hatcher has given you. With LF, it’s becoming harder and harder to justify not playing Cumbest more. Skinner is a great athlete but he too is hovering around the Mendoza line.

Nothing would surprise me with this team, honestly. I think we are capable of winning it all or of getting dumped by a 2 or 3 seed in our own Regional.

 

[patdog]

Short answer, no. It's a good team, but there are some pretty big holes in the lineup, both offensively and defensively. This looks like a super regional team with a ceiling of 1 CWS win. Which is still a pretty damn good team.

 

[$altyDawg]

But baseball is a funny sport.

This is a very valid disclaimer. It'll be interesting to see who gets hot at the right time this year. I sure hope it's us!

 

[8dog]

Yeah at this point in 2013 chad girodo was just another guy and i think we were striking out 8-9 times per game. During the postseason run I think we cut that to 4.

Anyone that gets to Omaha can win it. I think the CWS which is less HR heavy and rewards pitching depth actually plays in our favor. I just question our ability to get there.

 

[Seinfeld]

Unfortunately, no. I think we have as good a shot as anyone to get to Omaha, but there are a minimum of 2-3 more complete teams that will likely knock us out.

We might be able to get by with mediocre hitting and defense if we had elite pitching. However, in spite of depth on our pitching staff, it hasn’t been elite this year, and the errors aren’t helping. The lineup is basically the same way where you don’t mind 1-2 guys having down years, but my gosh... every time we seem to have one kid start to turn a corner, a couple more disappear. It’s hard to string anything together when you have automatic outs coming to plate every inning, and that’s what we’ve had lately

One thing I will say is that I love our team’s ability to strike guys out which could be our saving grace in Omaha, but Lemonis simply has to find some batters

 

[Hanmudog]

Good enough to get to Omaha? Definitely. Good enough to actually win it? Maybe with a couple of lucky breaks that would enable us to avoid Arkansas and Vandy.

Our starting pitchers' inability to go more that 4 innings is going to be our downfall. As good as our bullpen is I don't feel confident with all of them in tight spots.

 

[Go Budaw]

Wouldn’t be surprised if we made it to Omaha. Also wouldn’t be surprised if we got bounced from our own regional and ended our Super Regional streak at 4. I would probably be surprised if we made it all the way to the Finals in Omaha with all our current deficiencies, but that a tough feat even in the best of years. There’s a wide range of outcomes for this team, and most of it depends on whether or not we can get better defensively and start getting more timely hitting from guys who are not playing up to their potential right now.

 

[johnson86-1]

You might believe we are already playing well enough and you might be right but if not what needs to change to get us there? While we have a really good team I don't think we are playing at a high enough level at this point to get it done. Here is my list.

1. Get more offensive production out of 1b and LF. Ideally we need both positions to be hitting around .300 but a bare minimum is .250. This is a critical need because I don't think we have much of a chance unless this happens.

2. Must play better defensively. And not just eliminate errors. We have to be able to make the routine plays and make the plus plays to take away hits. This is an important need but maybe not as critical as #1 because of our pitching.

3. We need another lockdown type closer. We have many riches on our pitching staff. Sims is our only lockdown guy but he can't pitch every day. This would be a nice to have and perhaps we can get it out of Smith or Cerantola?

4. We need better mental toughness. We have had a few instances where we have lost focus. A little bad luck has rattled a few pitchers, and we have has some bad ABs at important times. In the stress meat grinder of post season teams who are mentally tough are usually the ones who fare the best.

Others? Agree or disagree?

I feel like our record is amazing considering the holes we have, and normally I would feel pretty confident that we are going to revert to the mean. But part of us looking so bad at times and consistently at certain positions may be caused by the competition being so much stiffer this year. So our W-L record may not be that out of line with our performance. And of course you've got Hatcher and Dubrule who could start hitting, which would really change our team. Getting really unlikely for Hatcher at this point, but short of something like eye problems or other health issues, it's also hard for me to believe somebody could drop off that badly for this long just based on mental issues. And then Cumbest has shown potential. The coaches obviously have zero confidence in him, but maybe they're just making a mistake and his stats aren't some fluke.

 

[The Peeper]

Absolutely not. Allow me to remove the Wool coat and maroon glasses please.

We have several holes in the batting order not contributing. Among the 7 regulars we have 4 hitting .265 or less and 1 of those is a team low .195 avg and a team low .257 OBP (that's a SEASON LONG SLUMP, not a bad streak).

We have 1 big hole in the field that always seems to give up either a throwing or fielding error per game at least that always costs us. That's not counting at least 1 error a game between the middle infielders.

We have a starting rotation that can be Jekyll and Hyde at times.

I'm not even sure we win the tournament or get out of a Super Regional unless we see a major turn around. A NC is out of the question right now.

 

[Drebin]

Good enough to get to Omaha? Definitely. Good enough to actually win it? Maybe with a couple of lucky breaks that would enable us to avoid Arkansas and Vandy.

Our starting pitchers' inability to go more that 4 innings is going to be our downfall. As good as our bullpen is I don't feel confident with all of them in tight spots.

I don't think starters going 4 innings is the issue as much as knowing when to get them out of there. We have the type of bullpen where we can rotate pitchers every time through a lineup and play matchups. We almost won in 2013 with starters rarely going more than three innings.

I think what gets us in trouble is sticking with guys too long. We want to try to get Mac through five, so we let him try to work through a situation where he walks two and gives up a hit in the 4th and he gives up a couple of big runs. Or maybe we stick with a reliever too long. The margin for error here will of course be much slimmer in tournament play.

 

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

#3: I nominate Parker Stinnett.

date		opponent	ip	h	r	er	bb	so	2b	3b	hr	wp	bk	hbp	ibb	sv	era	np
Mar 21, 2021	at	LSU	1.1	1	2	2	2	2	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13.50	31
Apr 03, 2021		KENTUCKY	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	7.71	26
Apr 10, 2021	at	Auburn	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.40	9
Apr 18, 2021		OLE MISS	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4.15	16
Apr 25, 2021	at	Vanderbilt	1.1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3.18	25
		total	5.2	2	2	2	5	7	2	0	0	3	0	1	0	1	3.18

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Stinnett can pitch final inning when Sims isn't available, which is how we used him against LSU, Kentucky (save situation), and Auburn.

 

[ZombieKissinger]

Yes. We have holes but we’re good enough to compete. Only series losses are Arkansas and Vandy, and we could’ve beaten Vandy. I’m not predicting us to win it all but I think we have a good chance to make Omaha again and we’ll have to see who else is there with us

 

[QuadrupleOption]

Like most others have mentioned, I like this team. I enjoy watching them play.

However, we're 1-5 against the top 2 teams in the country.

So on the one hand, the easy answer is 'no'. On the other hand, if we can improve our hitting and reduce our errors over the next few weeks I think we have a shot.

We aren't that far off but we have some work to do.

 

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

To those saying that the team ranked #4 in the nation at the end of April can't win the national title: Name the teams that can.

This isn't football. There are more teams capable of winning the national title. Of course we are one of them.

Previous national champs' ranking this time of the year:
2019 Vanderbilt #2
2018 Oregon State #5
2017 Florida #13
2016 Coastal Carolina #13
2015 Virginia unranked
2014 Vanderbilt #25
2013 UCLA #12
2012 Arizona #6

 

[Duke Humphrey]

Who knows? As far as making the CWS, our last 4 trips (2007,13,18 and 19) only team that played well in regular season to think we had a shot was 19. The best team we have had in the last 20 years lost in the Super (2016). Baseball is weird and cruel sport.

 

[Russ Wheeler]

We are a consensus top 6 team (including RPI) who has played a top 5 SOS. We are absolutely good enough to win it. However, that wasn't your question. Your question was, "are we playing good enough....?". I assume you mean right now, and the answer is probably not, but we are only going to get better.

I would not be shocked at all to see us hoisting the trophy in June. The ability is abolutely there.

 

[Wizard.sixpack]

Elite pitching is a critical ingredient to winning a NC. We have one of the best staffs in the country top to bottom. If we can just be decent offensively we can win. Case in point. Look no further than the team that beat us in the NC, UCLA. They hit .250 as a team that year! Not one starter over .300 and they only hit like .225 in the series against us.

 

[Phil Wenneck.sixpack]

Honestly I'm scared to death we may not make it out of a regional or super if we

run into an ace pitcher that can completely shut us down offensively. It's one thing to struggle or be limited but we've shown too much of a propensity at times of being completely dominated at the plate over the course of 9 innings.

 

[Cooterpoot]

Defense nor the offense is good enough. Starting pitching hasn't been good enough either. We're good, but not good enough.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

I don't think we have the bats to get to Omaha. Certainly wouldn't be a good showing if we make it. I expect us to make it to the Supers though.

 

[57stratdawg]

Yes. We have to limit walks and errors though. I think we can keep the ball in TD Ameritrade. If we're not walking people and making plays defensively, we can win games there.

That said, I don't want to have to face Vandy up there. I'd rather take our chances with Arkansas. Hopefully Texas or TCU can knock out Corbin's group.

 

[MSUDC11]

This hasn’t been the case as much recently, but you’re still talking about a sport where non-Top 8 seeds have won the title more often than not in the last 20 years. From 2004-2016, 11 of the 13 national champions weren’t Top 8 seeds, and 5 of those 11 were either 2, 3, or 4 seeds that didn’t host a Regional. The No. 1 overall seed hasn’t won the title since Miami in 1999.

I will remind you that a little over a month before we played for a national title in 2013, we were 13-13 in conference play and on the verge of getting swept by a pretty average Ole Miss team in Oxford (they didn’t host and were eliminated in a Regional by William & Mary). Also, for all the great teams we’ve had, the 2018 team that had an interim coach and a losing conference record is tied for our second deepest postseason run. Whoever is left standing at the end is often a total crap shoot.

I’ll echo what I said earlier, I think the ingredients are there for us to have a great postseason run or for us to get dumped at home by South Alabama after 2-3 games. We’re better than many of our fans give us credit for, but not without flaws that could be back breakers at some point. It will all depend on how we are playing in June, as it always does.

 

[PreacherDog]

Yeah at this point in 2013 chad girodo was just another guy and i think we were striking out 8-9 times per game. During the postseason run I think we cut that to 4.

Anyone that gets to Omaha can win it. I think the CWS which is less HR heavy and rewards pitching depth actually plays in our favor. I just question our ability to get there.

Not sure how a guy that went 10-1 with a sub 2 ERA in 36 appearances was just another guy. Besides we had Ross Mitchell as well with Holder as the closer. Man that staff was loaded with talent.
This one has potential to be better (primarily starting) and I hope it can be.
I agree with the assessment that lf and 1b are weak spots in lineup, inconsistent starts, and that bad fielding at times has been an issue. If we can improve these, we certainly have a chance. We have a good team and I enjoy watching them compete.

 

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

Defense nor the offense is good enough. Starting pitching hasn't been good enough either. We're good, but not good enough.

What teams are good enough?

 

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

I don't think we have the bats to get to Omaha. Certainly wouldn't be a good showing if we make it. I expect us to make it to the Supers though.

What teams are good enough?

 

[tcdog70]

Coach L-doesn't play the lefty -righty deal like other Coaches..I've seen Hatcher come to bat against a lefty in a crucial situation and he does not pinch hit a righty.If he would play hatcher against righties and Clark against lefties and the same with BC and Skinner . Leggett might need to play some third, Can James play first?

 

[8dog]

Girodo threw 13 innings in conference play (thats just over an inning per weekend). Stuck out about a batter an inning. In postseason he became flat dominant pushing 2 Ks per inning and throwing long stretches.

 

[johnson86-1]

I don't think we have the bats to get to Omaha. Certainly wouldn't be a good showing if we make it. I expect us to make it to the Supers though.

To get to Omaha? Seriously? We have lost series to Arkansas and Vandy, who seem to be the two best teams in the nation and actually have some separation past that. We should at worst be playing the 9th best team in the nation in the supers. Certainly we don't have a team that you can just pencil in to Omaha, but I would think we' have probably a 40% chance of making it if not 50% chance.

 

[8dog]

Clark is a lefty. Leggett is not gonna help us. Other than Cumbest for skinner there just isnt much we can do.

 

[Russ Wheeler]

Clark is a lefty. Leggett is not gonna help us. Other than Cumbest for skinner there just isnt much we can do.

Leggett should absolutely be the SS. Or 3B, if James is moved to 1B. But either way Leggett should be starting.

 

[Cooterpoot]

What teams are good enough?

Arkansas and Vandy are. We're good enough to make a run. Just don't think we can win it. When starting pitching can make it through the lineup more than twice, we can make a run. But our defense kills us there too. We have to be able to score 7 + runs one of three games too.

 

[Russ Wheeler]

This hasn’t been the case as much recently, but you’re still talking about a sport where non-Top 8 seeds have won the title more often than not in the last 20 years. From 2004-2016, 11 of the 13 national champions weren’t Top 8 seeds, and 5 of those 11 were either 2, 3, or 4 seeds that didn’t host a Regional. The No. 1 overall seed hasn’t won the title since Miami in 1999.

I will remind you that a little over a month before we played for a national title in 2013, we were 13-13 in conference play and on the verge of getting swept by a pretty average Ole Miss team in Oxford (they didn’t host and were eliminated in a Regional by William & Mary). Also, for all the great teams we’ve had, the 2018 team that had an interim coach and a losing conference record is tied for our second deepest postseason run. Whoever is left standing at the end is often a total crap shoot.

I’ll echo what I said earlier, I think the ingredients are there for us to have a great postseason run or for us to get dumped at home by South Alabama after 2-3 games. We’re better than many of our fans give us credit for, but not without flaws that could be back breakers at some point. It will all depend on how we are playing in June, as it always does.

Couple of caveats here.....you really need to start in 2003, because that's when the current format begin, and a national seed won that year. But your point is still very valid. Also, the dead bats and high-seam balls really screwed up a lot of the consistency. But once we sorted all of that out, things started trending towards national seed in 2017 or so. I bet you'll start to see more consistency now. But baseball is still a funny game that will allow room for the Fresno States and Coastal Carolinas, and that's a good thing.

Bottom line, playing at home helps get you to Omaha. And you have to get to Omaha to have a chance to win it. So the goal is always a national seed then you let the chips fall.

 

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

Arkansas and Vandy are. We're good enough to make a run. Just don't think we can win it. When starting pitching can make it through the lineup more than twice, we can make a run. But our defense kills us there too. We have to be able to score 7 + runs one of three games too.

Two teams?! How much will you bet me straight up? You get Arkansas and Vandy. I get the field.

 

[thekimmer]

That is a judgement call....

What teams are good enough?[/QUOTE

There is no definitive check list that quantifies this and every team obviously has its strong and weak points. Its more of an eye test if anything based on what the competition looks like and what a 'winning team' has historically looked like.

With that said, Arkansas is definitely up there. They don't have the best pitching but its serviceable and they have a good offense. Probably their biggest strength is they are a veteran team that plays with a lot of confidence. Vandy is another. They have lights out 1-2 pitching that drops off after that but they have better offensive numbers than we do. I don't really know a lot about teams outside the SEC.

 

[GhostOfJackie]

We are playing good enough to get a national seed and set ourselves up for a run to Omaha. Once we get there anything can happen. Personally, I believe we have the best bullpen in the country and that will set us up nicely for that deep run.

They key is peaking at the end of the season, and playing well when it really matters most. We are one of about 15 teams who could win it all.