So the spread is on +1 for tomorrows game?

[PirateDawg]

Can't believe it is that close after the season we've had. Maybe most of it comes from the talent on each team.

 

[MSUDC11]

Mizzou is a weird team. They have some talent on offense and beat teams like Arkansas and Kentucky that we laid an egg against. But then they’ve also had some stinkers of their own and definitely benefited from being in the East.

We could absolutely win, or this could be another bad day for us. I think we have to play clean offensively and then force some turnovers of our own. That is an issue that hasn’t gotten discussed really, we haven’t forced a turnover since the Vandy game.

 

[missouridawg]

Mizzou is a weird team. They have some talent on offense and beat teams like Arkansas and Kentucky that we laid an egg against. But then they’ve also had some stinkers of their own and definitely benefited from being in the East.

We could absolutely win, or this could be another bad day for us. I think we have to play clean offensively and then force some turnovers of our own. That is an issue that hasn’t gotten discussed really, we haven’t forced a turnover since the Vandy game.

This is all reasonable and logical. And I'm not trying to throw a stone at you or anything, but our success in every game this year had depended upon two things; (1) whether or not the defense committed to dropping 8 on almost every play and (2) whether that defense had any talent at all.

LSU didn't drop 8 at all and we played our best game of the season
Arkansas dropped 8 and we had no answer
UK dropped 8 and we had no answer
aTm dropped 8 and we had no answer
Bama is Bama
Vandy dropped 8, but had little talent and almost beat us
UGA dropped 8 the fewest number of times against us other than LSU and we almost beat them (offense looked reasonable here)
OM dropped 8 a lot but didn't have a ton of talent, but still beat us (offense looked reasonable here)
Auburn dropped 8 a lot and we had no answer

Mizzou - If they drop 8 a lot... they will shut us down. The stats prove that out.

For those interested in stats.... sorted by Team Total Defense (yards per game allowed):
UK 53
AU 62
MZ 64
ARK 106
OM 127

Why anyone thinks we have a shot in this game, if Mizzou drops 8 a lot, is beyond me. This Saturday will look a lot like Auburn, if they drop 8 and commit to it.

 

[patdog]

Looks like Mizzou is down to 2 true FR corners for this game who will have to play every snap. Of course one of them is one of the top recruits in the country last year. But still, we may have a chance.

 

[fishwater99]

Mizzo -1 and LSU +2.5 look like winners.

Also
USC -3 (Tonight)
SJS +6.5
ND +10.5
ISU +6
OSU -20

 

[Drebin]

It's not as simple as you say. Auburn didn't drop 8 much at all. They mixed coverage all game, but they almost always had two safeties over the top. Our freshman QB struggled to make the right read because they confused him. Ole Miss did something similar, as did A&M.

Auburn actually played quite a bit of man because we didn't have any receivers that scared them in coverage. A healthy Payton and Heath might have allowed us to take advantage of it.

Arkansas dropped 8 almost every play, and Kentucky did it probably 75% of the time. But most of the rest of the time, while we've still seen a lot of zone, it's been combo and cover 2 stuff, and not "drop 8".

 

[MSUDC11]

I feel like Auburn played more man that Georgia against us. Everyone remembers the one Walley TD against UGA being against man, but they did play a HEAVY zone for the majority of the game. Probably too soft of a zone, but still a zone.

The thing with me looking at this game is that even though we are 2-7 and have struggled mightily on offense at times, it’s not like we’ve gotten blown out every week. We have three losses that were decided by 7 points and two other losses (Kentucky and Auburn) where game was competitive for most of the night but the dam broke late and we lost by double digits. A&M and Bama are the only two teams who have really just blown us out.

Mizzou is in that tier of teams we have been competitive with. Our defense is competent enough to keep us in the game in all likelihood, and if we can do just enough offensively then we have a chance. Don’t think we necessarily have to score 50 in order to win if our defense plays reasonably well.

 

[PirateDawg]

We had 2 big dropped passes that could have made a difference against Auburn

This is all reasonable and logical. And I'm not trying to throw a stone at you or anything, but our success in every game this year had depended upon two things; (1) whether or not the defense committed to dropping 8 on almost every play and (2) whether that defense had any talent at all.

LSU didn't drop 8 at all and we played our best game of the season
Arkansas dropped 8 and we had no answer
UK dropped 8 and we had no answer
aTm dropped 8 and we had no answer
Bama is Bama
Vandy dropped 8, but had little talent and almost beat us
UGA dropped 8 the fewest number of times against us other than LSU and we almost beat them (offense looked reasonable here)
OM dropped 8 a lot but didn't have a ton of talent, but still beat us (offense looked reasonable here)
Auburn dropped 8 a lot and we had no answer

Mizzou - If they drop 8 a lot... they will shut us down. The stats prove that out.

For those interested in stats.... sorted by Team Total Defense (yards per game allowed):
UK 53
AU 62
MZ 64
ARK 106
OM 127

Why anyone thinks we have a shot in this game, if Mizzou drops 8 a lot, is beyond me. This Saturday will look a lot like Auburn, if they drop 8 and commit to it.

I think the talent balance will help us this weekend.

 

[patdog]

Dropped passes are part of the game. Happens every week on every team. When you throw the ball 50+ times per game, you're going to have more of them. With a 68% completion percentage on the season, we're not dropping a lot of passes.

 

[PirateDawg]

Wow, I didn't realize that. I thought all passes were caught in every game.

We had two passes that hit receivers right in the hands that should have been TDs but were dropped against Auburn. Auburn had several TD opportunities (open receivers) but Nix threw the ball too long except on the last TD pass he made.

I agree that we are not dropping many passes this year and that is why the two were so big. They were easy completions but were dropped. My point was we were in the game against Auburn and were not blown out and even had opportunities.

Dropped passes are part of the game. Happens every week on every team. When you throw the ball 50+ times per game, you're going to have more of them. With a 68% completion percentage on the season, we're not dropping a lot of passes.

 

[mcdawg22]

Auburn manned outside and zoned inside with the cover 2.

 

[8dog]

Mizzou is in trouble. We had an entire week to “rep
it out”.