Passing Percentage

[Trojanbulldog19]

View attachment 18846


This is the top 25 in passing percentage. Closest to us is ULM. Even Graham Harrell at USC only has them at 57 percent. Even Washington State is back down in the 60's. It's just crazy to me to think we are almost at 80 percent passing. I noticed washington state was at 77 percent last year too so we are about right where they were last year with percentage so i'm not sure the ratio will get any more closer to any of the other teams at any time. 2018 Washington still lead the country but it was only 70 percent. his lowest ever was 65 percent at Washington in 2016. His first year was around 74 percent with the average of about 73 with the one lower year bring it down. Just hard to fathom being that much higher than everyone else even the ones running some form of air raid spin off or concepts of air raid.

 

[patdog]

2-6
0-9
2-3
5-1
4-5
1-2
3-0
3-6
3-7

Records of the top 10 teams on that list.

 

[BlueRidgeMtns]

Maybe we'll see that number drop a little next season after the team has had more reps.

Probably not, just spit balling here.

 

[jethreauxdawg]

Looks like we need a few more incomplete passes**

 

[patdog]

That's not completion percentage, it's percent of total plays that are passes. It's a bit confusing. I had to double check to be sure I was reading it right.

 

[LittleBigDog]

Good catch...I misread that completely

That's not completion percentage, it's percent of total plays that are passes. It's a bit confusing. I had to double check to be sure I was reading it right.

nm

 

[aTotal360]

That's not sobering at all...

 

[Trojanbulldog19]

What’s crazy to me is that guys like Harrell, Riley, Briles, Holgerson who came up under leach all hang out in the high 40s to high 50s. None are above 60 percent. Leach seems to be the only on that thinks that he can win big going almost 80 percent passing. His best year at wazzu was closer to 70. His lowest at tech was 66. In 04. He had some 9 win seasons at 75 percent. So I can see why he doesn’t mind being so high. Lot of other variables there for the success those years. Just interesting to see a team that far ahead of everyone else in percentage of passing plays ran.

 

[patdog]

Yeah, it's as if he doesn't care what works as long as he's running his offense. He's going to have to make some adjustments or he won't last long in the SEC. Also interesting that the difference between us and #2 ULM is greater than the difference between ULM and #25 Indiana.

 

[Trojanbulldog19]

View attachment 18849

for comparison here are the rushing teams we are pretty much the equivalent of the triple option teams that only run like the academy’s and ga southern just in the complete opposite direction.

 

[Junction John]

To put how far ahead we are in other terms...

Well, ****, I just saw Patdog posted the same thing. Still amazing.

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

What’s crazy to me is that guys like Harrell, Riley, Briles, Holgerson who came up under leach all hang out in the high 40s to high 50s. None are above 60 percent. Leach seems to be the only on that thinks that he can win big going almost 80 percent passing. His best year at wazzu was closer to 70. His lowest at tech was 66. In 04. He had some 9 win seasons at 75 percent. So I can see why he doesn’t mind being so high. Lot of other variables there for the success those years. Just interesting to see a team that far ahead of everyone else in percentage of passing plays ran.

None of the guys you listed have taken a doormat program to an 11 win season. Leach has done it. TWICE. So I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt he can do it a third time.

 

[PineGroveBully]

Have you not seen adjustments? And you can make changes that won’t necessarily change his system nor show up play in percentages. I know the exam is still incomplete but trotting the line “He's going to have to make some adjustments or he won't last long in the SEC.” after seeing the last 2 bulldog games compared to the 3 prior is asinine or you’re just trying to stir **** up because a little fan enthusiasm makes you miserable. And he’s not just making adjustments to his system, we had no spring practice so he’s really still adjusting from
JoMo’s system. Using a freshman Quarterback. In a SEC only schedule, no powderpuffs to build confidence and work on the getting a rhythm passing system in real game speed rhythm.

 

[msudawg12]

2-6
0-9
2-3
5-1
4-5
1-2
3-0
3-6
3-7

Records of the top 10 teams on that list.

To be fair: a team that is undefeated typically plays from ahead and runs the ball much more to run the clock.

To be extra fair, our % would only drop like 5-7% even if we were bama....

 

[Rayburn8]

I’d love to see this state controlled for competitive game time, because I’m sure it gets skewed for good teams who are up three scores in the fourth quarter or hell even in close games so they run the clock out.

Like that’s the first half pass/run split for example.

 

[Trojanbulldog19]

I’ve seen a few of his adjustments that have helped. 1 pre-snap motion.
2. Much tighter splits
3. A couple more run plays that aren’t just a draw. First touchdown against Georgia for example. And I think adding more wrinkle runs and jet sweeps to his screens using receivers and counters would make his offense more effective. And I also think getting that percentage down to 70 to 65 would be more effective at MSU with our talent profile. It also probably would have helped him transition to his offense better to slowly build it. He has percentages that low so it’s not like he hasn’t done it.
Even teams in the nfl with guys like Mahomes and Brady don’t pass at a ratio like this and they have the talent to do so.

 

[PineGroveBully]

And I think adding more wrinkle runs and jet sweeps to his screens using receivers and counters would make his offense more effective.

Soild post, especially this point

 

[Uncle Ruckus]

I can’t believe that we have posters here who know more about coaching than Mike Leach. Truly amazing.

 

[Trojanbulldog19]

I’ve also noticed Will moves the pocket wayyyy more than Costello. Poor guy had statue feet. That helps keep the play alive. He also isn’t afraid to run 10 yards down field or more if there isn’t anything else. This offense just works better if a qb can move and be accurate with the ball at the same time to get guys open like dak does. Withe speed on defense in this conference that makes a huge difference. If Will was a bit faster and quicker that would probably help too. Will has much quicker feet and decision making ability than Costello. Guys like that make this offense excel more. Play making ability like Mahomes, Minshew, Rattler, Harrell, Mayfield, Murray. Quick feet, extending plays, and the ability to make quick decisions to guys who are open or who will be open.

I just think adding more wrinkles to the run game using receivers in sweeps and some counters would help a young qb out tremendously and a line that is still trying to figure this thing out. If we can call maybe 10-15 percent more run plays this offense could really take off moving and scoring some points and have a chance to have some more rhythm.

The presnap motions, tighter splits have helped a ton.hopefully we will see a few more adjustments the next two games.

 

[patdog]

As others have posted many times, I don't have to be a master chef to know when I've gotten a bad steak at a restaurant. Rules 7 & 8.

7. Comments on coaching and or playing are welcome no matter what your experience level in any sport.
8. Booing a post, player, coach, fan, or whatever is tolerated. If they can't handle booing, they shouldn't step into the spotlight.

 

[WutheringDawg]

Not saying the Leach system will work, but I don’t think you can read too much into the the records of the top passing by percentage teams. Unless their scheme is pass heavy by design then a high percentages can very logically be explained as a lagging indicator - team x is bad, team x’s opponents usually get out to a big lead, team x abandons the run, team x loses. They now show up with other teams similar to x at the top of the list of teams that throw the most by percentage. You’ll probably see that teams that run the most, unless it’s scheme based (academy schools), will predominantly have good records.

Do I wish we incorporated more of the running game? Absolutely, but I don’t think throwing and losing are as directly correlated as the records you posted would suggest.

 

[PineGroveBully]

I’ve noticed the way he moved the pocket the last 2 games. The ability to do that can help hide a weak spot in the OL. I’ve never really been a huge fan of his nor really appreciated his talent until this year but Russell Wilson may be the best in the league at that. 15-20 years ago once you saw a QB move or leave the pocket it was normally like a Vick or McNair putting their heads down. Wilson and Mahomes are two players I think his style really fits albeit at the college level. (as long as he doesn’t think he has Mahomes’ arm) Neither guy is really a burner, I think I remember Mahomes not being much if any faster than Chris Jones. But both guys keep their heads up looking downfield and letting their receivers work their way open. Rogers really wasn’t doing that early but that has really improved the last two games. It’s allowed he and Walley to form a sweet little synchronicity. Just wait until Walley gets an actual SEC quarterback.**

 

[PineGroveBully]

Glad the hall monitor showed up.

 

[Trojanbulldog19]

None of the guys you listed have taken a doormat program to an 11 win season. Leach had done it. TWICE. So I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt he can do it a third time.

Tech wasn’t really much of a door mat. Dykes had them competitive. The big 12 also wasn’t known for defense at all during that period. The SEC kicked their face in a lot of cases when they played out of conference. I can remember ole miss beating them in the cotton bowl in that big 11 win season they had. Ole miss had losses to Vandy, South Carolina, and wake Forest that year. So the 11 win season is kind of meh when you can’t beat a four loss ole miss team. The big 12 champ OU that season crushed them and the OU only put up 14 against Florida in the NC game. Which we then hired their OC to be our HC. So that 11 win season was just kind of overall they won 11 games in a conference that in comparison just really wasn’t that great defensively at all.

I’ll give you wazzu. However, the pac 12 north is much like the east of the sec post urban meyer. And the whole pac 12 really not that great. Many of the blue bloods out there were and have been in the ******* a while. Pretty obvious when then have played outside of conference. In his best year with minshew they beat 8-5 Iowa state by 2 in a 20s scoring game. Don’t forget Auburn beat the pac 12 north winner last year. Just a big difference in football played in that conference and this one. That many SEC blue bloods just aren’t going to suck that bad for that many years.

I would expect more of a Mullen type run at best by leach and that’s okay. I would be very very surprised if he ever got to 11 here at MSU. SEC is a different animal. He was there two years before left to go Oklahoma and in those two years the best they got was 7 wins. Then they went down hill. Kentucky’s average in 98 with 7 wins was 72 percent. It was major because nobody else was doing even close to that then.

 

[johnson86-1]

Tech wasn’t really much of a door mat. Dykes had them competitive. The big 12 also wasn’t known for defense at all during that period. The SEC kicked their face in a lot of cases when they played out of conference. I can remember ole miss beating them in the cotton bowl in that big 11 win season they had. Ole miss had losses to Vandy, South Carolina, and wake Forest that year. So the 11 win season is kind of meh when you can’t beat a four loss ole miss team. The big 12 champ OU that season crushed them and the OU only put up 14 against Florida in the NC game. Which we then hired their OC to be our HC. So that 11 win season was just kind of overall they won 11 games in a conference that in comparison just really wasn’t that great defensively at all.

I’ll give you wazzu. However, the pac 12 north is much like the east of the sec post urban meyer. And the whole pac 12 really not that great. Many of the blue bloods out there were and have been in the ******* a while. Pretty obvious when then have played outside of conference. In his best year with minshew they beat 8-5 Iowa state by 2 in a 20s scoring game. Don’t forget Auburn beat the pac 12 north winner last year. Just a big difference in football played in that conference and this one. That many SEC blue bloods just aren’t going to suck that bad for that many years.

I would expect more of a Mullen type run at best by leach and that’s okay. I would be very very surprised if he ever got to 11 here at MSU. SEC is a different animal. He was there two years before left to go Oklahoma and in those two years the best they got was 7 wins. Then they went down hill. Kentucky’s average in 98 with 7 wins was 72 percent. It was major because nobody else was doing even close to that then.

That Ole Miss team was good by the end of the year. And they matched up really well against Tech, who still put up 34 points.

And anybody expecting more than a Mullen type run needs to find a different school to cheer for. I'm still optimistic about leach (although not as optimistic as I was before the season) and I never expected him to do better than Mullen.