Leach recruiting impact......

[Russ Wheeler]

I'm done complaining about whether or not Leach should or shouldn't have been hired. Now's the time to buy in to the program, because we have no other choice. I hear all the time, "he needs to get his players in here". Well that's fine, but there needs to be tangible return on this rather than just throwing out our current players just to get new ones in who may or may not be better.

The four years before Leach took over at Wazzou, they averaged the 63rd ranked class in the country, 12th ranked class in the PAC-12, and average rating 81.96. The four years after Leach took over they went to 50th ranked class in the country, 9th ranked class in the PAC-12, and average rating 83.32. For purposes of this comparison I let the 2012 class count back towards the predecessor, since it was largely put together by him. That is pretty serious, and that is the kind of impact we must see here. A 13 spot jump in the country is about 20% of 63.

So let's apply that to us. The last 4 years including the 2020 class that Leach did not put together, we averaged 26th in the country, 10th in the SEC, and average rating 87.29. A similar jump to Wazzou puts us at Top 20 in the country. Are we doing that? Currently we are 24th, 9th, and 86.13. So we're up, but we need to go a little higher. Keep in mind that Leach started putting together his improved classes before they even had a winning season or won a bowl game (3-9, 6-7 and 3-9). His best class was before the breakthrough 2015 year, and his class after that on NSD 2016 was the worst of the 4.

All that to say, he's got to have a recruiting impact now, not after he starts winning. He's got the name and pedigree, so we need to see some impact players. Got to close this class, and put together another one hopefully in the top 20 territory next year. If we don't, we really can start to think this experiment will not work, 'his players' or not.

 

[Arloguthrie]

My concern is what if the recruits don't even know about Leach the Offensive Genius. I mean Washington State isn't exactly the most well known program in the country, and recruits were like 7 years old during the Texas Tech years. What if they just know him as the guy whose offense is sputtering at Mississippi State who sometimes makes zany comments? I'm concerned, that's all.

 

[Russ Wheeler]

My concern is what if the recruits don't even know about Leach the Offensive Genius. I mean Washington State isn't exactly the most well known program in the country, and recruits were like 7 years old during the Texas Tech years. What if they just know him as the guy whose offense is sputtering at Mississippi State who sometimes makes zany comments? I'm concerned, that's all.

If you don't know who Mike Leach is, then you've been living under a rock. Gardner Minshew? Come on.

 

[dawgstudent]

My concern is what if the recruits don't even know about Leach the Offensive Genius. I mean Washington State isn't exactly the most well known program in the country, and recruits were like 7 years old during the Texas Tech years. What if they just know him as the guy whose offense is sputtering at Mississippi State who sometimes makes zany comments? I'm concerned, that's all.

Your concern is not noted.

 

[patdog]

I'm not too worried about Leach recruiting. Not that I ever am that much anyway. But for QBs and WRs, I don't think recruiting rankings will tell us much about how a player will fit into Leach's system. And for OL, it's pretty much a crapshoot anyway except for a few 5* recruits.

 

[paindonthurt_]

We don’t have to be top 20.

Stay in the top 25 consistently.
Never drop below 29.
Occasionally hit a top 20
Recruit to needs.

Combine that with good coaching and recruiting ranking average will slowly get better.

I'm done complaining about whether or not Leach should or shouldn't have been hired. Now's the time to buy in to the program, because we have no other choice. I hear all the time, "he needs to get his players in here". Well that's fine, but there needs to be tangible return on this rather than just throwing out our current players just to get new ones in who may or may not be better.

The four years before Leach took over at Wazzou, they averaged the 63rd ranked class in the country, 12th ranked class in the PAC-12, and average rating 81.96. The four years after Leach took over they went to 50th ranked class in the country, 9th ranked class in the PAC-12, and average rating 83.32. For purposes of this comparison I let the 2012 class count back towards the predecessor, since it was largely put together by him. That is pretty serious, and that is the kind of impact we must see here. A 13 spot jump in the country is about 20% of 63.

So let's apply that to us. The last 4 years including the 2020 class that Leach did not put together, we averaged 26th in the country, 10th in the SEC, and average rating 87.29. A similar jump to Wazzou puts us at Top 20 in the country. Are we doing that? Currently we are 24th, 9th, and 86.13. So we're up, but we need to go a little higher. Keep in mind that Leach started putting together his improved classes before they even had a winning season or won a bowl game (3-9, 6-7 and 3-9). His best class was before the breakthrough 2015 year, and his class after that on NSD 2016 was the worst of the 4.

All that to say, he's got to have a recruiting impact now, not after he starts winning. He's got the name and pedigree, so we need to see some impact players. Got to close this class, and put together another one hopefully in the top 20 territory next year. If we don't, we really can start to think this experiment will not work, 'his players' or not.

 

[Russ Wheeler]

We don’t have to be top 20.

Stay in the top 25 consistently.
Never drop below 29.
Occasionally hit a top 20
Recruit to needs.

Combine that with good coaching and recruiting ranking average will slowly get better.

I guess we need to define expectations. I'm talking about going beyond the Danny Boy threshold, which is averaging about 7 wins per year and 3/4 conference wins. We didn't hire Leach to hold serve, Cohen said so himself.

 

[campshelbydog842003]

Mike Leach didn’t get better at WSU because his recruiting ranking went up. When you are recruiting in the 50s and 60s the rankings don’t matter that much (Hugh freeze has signed the 135th rated class and the 89th rated class and is beating the **** out of everyone he plays at that level and their P5 opponents). It is the fit for what you are trying to do and your developmental qualities as a coach. I am worried about our defensive players recruiting ranking a lot more than the offensive side of the ball, and Arnett has already proved he can make chicken salad.

He currently has a bunch of big, slow, road graders on the OL and he needs 5 offensive tackle type guys that can move. He is going to take a bunch of projects on the offensive line just like he always has because we don’t produce many of those types in this state. We need a lot more speed at receiver and that is on the way with this recruiting class. His quarterback of the future is in this recruiting class. His DC is the biggest recruiting job in front of him for this class. Arnett has to be retained.

Another thing that needs to be remembered is that this is the worst in state class of prospects this state has produced in a very long time. We are going to have a top 30 class in a year where there is not much to choose from in the state. Joe Moorhead got a lot of praise for completely shitting the bed in the best in state class of prospects the state has ever seen and Leach is going to damn near match that class ranking with the worst in state group ever and somehow moorhead was supposedly the better recruiter.

 

[paindonthurt_]

Dan Mullen won 7.67 games per year counting bowls.

If you are expecting us to jump to 9 to 10 win season every year in 3 years, you need to take a really deep breath.

 

[Ralph Cramden]

I'm concerned but it is what it is. I mean we are in the SEC West so its not like we are gonna compete for a natty. Maybe one day we will be able to beat Bama regularly, but I honestly doubt it. I'm hopeful for a few 9 win seasons eventually. Thats about it. Maybe we will be peaking about the time Saban retires but even then idk

 

[Russ Wheeler]

Dan Mullen won 7.67 games per year counting bowls.

I don't look at bowls when trying to compare seasons and trends, they are largely dependent on luck of the draw. You have to make everything as comparable as possible.

If you are expecting us to jump to 9 to 10 win season every year in 3 years, you need to take a really deep breath.

Sorry, taking the next step is the goal. I agree with Cohen on this. I just didn't agree that Leach is the best way to get there. But he makes decisions, so my numbers above is what has to happen to get there. I absolutely want to average at least 8 total regular wins per year, which is a .500 record in the SEC at worst. That's the goal.

 

[Russ Wheeler]

Mike Leach didn’t get better at WSU because his recruiting ranking went up. When you are recruiting in the 50s and 60s the rankings don’t matter that much (Hugh freeze has signed the 135th rated class and the 89th rated class and is beating the **** out of everyone he plays at that level and their P5 opponents). It is the fit for what you are trying to do and your developmental qualities as a coach. I am worried about our defensive players recruiting ranking a lot more than the offensive side of the ball, and Arnett has already proved he can make chicken salad.

He currently has a bunch of big, slow, road graders on the OL and he needs 5 offensive tackle type guys that can move. He is going to take a bunch of projects on the offensive line just like he always has because we don’t produce many of those types in this state. We need a lot more speed at receiver and that is on the way with this recruiting class. His quarterback of the future is in this recruiting class. His DC is the biggest recruiting job in front of him for this class. Arnett has to be retained.

Another thing that needs to be remembered is that this is the worst in state class of prospects this state has produced in a very long time. We are going to have a top 30 class in a year where there is not much to choose from in the state. Joe Moorhead got a lot of praise for completely shitting the bed in the best in state class of prospects the state has ever seen and Leach is going to damn near match that class ranking with the worst in state group ever and somehow moorhead was supposedly the better recruiter.

I just showed that his recruiting ranking went up, and the win total followed. It's fact, using the best recruiting metric we've got (247). It wasn't ALL attributed to that, but disregarding the impact of improved recruiting is just being willfully dishonest.

 

[the dog is on the loose]

It seems we all talk about recruiting in state as so have our previous coaches but I personally would like to see us somehow improve our recruiting footprint out of state a whole lot more. While Ms has produced a lot of NFL players over the years we are still a relatively small population state. Seems we always rely way too much on instate recruiting as if that’s our only means.

 

[campshelbydog842003]

I just showed that his recruiting ranking went up, and the win total followed. It's fact, using the best recruiting metric we've got (247). It wasn't ALL attributed to that, but disregarding the impact of improved recruiting is just being willfully dishonest.

And I’m telling you when you recruit at a level that far down the type of athlete that fits your scheme is a lot more important than if the guy is rated an 82 or an 83.5. How much effort do you really think the recruiting guys put into determining whether or not the 450th ranked offensive tackle is better than the 451st? Do you think Leach had any idea which diamond in the rough he signed was rated higher on 247? Hell half of them can’t even get Mississippi recruits that sign with SEC schools Correctly rated. The schools that recruit in the top 5-10 have a significant talent advantage over everyone else. Anyone that recruits below about 40 is just like drawing names out of a hat as far as rankings go. They are very inaccurate. It’s about fit and development with that many project type players.

 

[Russ Wheeler]

And I’m telling you when you recruit at a level that far down the type of athlete that fits your scheme is a lot more important than if the guy is rated an 82 or an 83.5. How much effort do you really think the recruiting guys put into determining whether or not the 450th ranked offensive tackle is better than the 451st? Do you think Leach had any idea which diamond in the rough he signed was rated higher on 247? Hell half of them can’t even get Mississippi recruits that sign with SEC schools Correctly rated. The schools that recruit in the top 5-10 have a significant talent advantage over everyone else. Anyone that recruits below about 40 is just like drawing names out of a hat as far as rankings go. They are very inaccurate. It’s about fit and development with that many project type players.

In a general sense, the recruiting rankings tell the tale. But I do agree that at places like Wazzou the ratings probably are more watered down.

 

[Uncle Ruckus]

Arent you an Ole Miss fan?

 

[Uncle Ruckus]

Dan Mullen was the best and most successful coach we have ever had. If he was still here doing what he always did we would all be thrilled. If he just gets us back to Mullen level he will be a success

 

[oxfordrebel22]

Mike Leach didn’t get better at WSU because his recruiting ranking went up. When you are recruiting in the 50s and 60s the rankings don’t matter that much (Hugh freeze has signed the 135th rated class and the 89th rated class and is beating the **** out of everyone he plays at that level and their P5 opponents). It is the fit for what you are trying to do and your developmental qualities as a coach. I am worried about our defensive players recruiting ranking a lot more than the offensive side of the ball, and Arnett has already proved he can make chicken salad.

He currently has a bunch of big, slow, road graders on the OL and he needs 5 offensive tackle type guys that can move. He is going to take a bunch of projects on the offensive line just like he always has because we don’t produce many of those types in this state. We need a lot more speed at receiver and that is on the way with this recruiting class. His quarterback of the future is in this recruiting class. His DC is the biggest recruiting job in front of him for this class. Arnett has to be retained.

Another thing that needs to be remembered is that this is the worst in state class of prospects this state has produced in a very long time. We are going to have a top 30 class in a year where there is not much to choose from in the state. Joe Moorhead got a lot of praise for completely shitting the bed in the best in state class of prospects the state has ever seen and Leach is going to damn near match that class ranking with the worst in state group ever and somehow moorhead was supposedly the better recruiter.

This is certainly true for this year, as far as fit and evaluations. This year and even next are going to be nuts as far as recruiting rankings. Will be fascinating to look back on in 3-4 years. My guess is a bunch of really talented kids wind up at G5’s and excel and then a lot of them will transfer. Every school would be wise to leave a little wiggle room on their roster for transfers, next couple of years.

But, I’d also add, that if you want to have a chance to win the West, especially with A&M in it now, too; you better recruit in the Top 20-25, at worst. You just aren’t hardly going to beat Alabama, LSU, Auburn, and A&M all in the same year, with them consistently signing Top 10-15 classes, with an average recruiting class of 28, that are “good fits”. You can certainly beat them some, but to run them all in the same year takes a Dak type talent (rare), some luck (also rare for MSU and OM - hence the 4th and 25), and a program or two struggling that year. And that’s uncommon, because of their talent. And that’s without mention Arkansas or Ole Miss (or MSU in our case) who are going to sign Top 30 classes, at worst, typically. Plus the fact that you could draw Florida or Georgia (Top 10 recruiters) on a given year.

Being an MSU and OM fan is a balancing act. We all want to be rational and recognize that unreasonable expectations are, well... unreasonable. But, we also have to realize that if we ever want to be more than mediocre, we’ve got to recruit at a really high level AND have schematic/coaching advantages. Because if we get a coach that’s actually good enough to win the West with below average (by SEC standards) talent, he’s going to be very hard to hang on to.

 

[paindonthurt_]

Take the bowls game out.

6.78 games/year

If you are expecting us to jump to 8 to 9 regular season wins every year in 3 years you need to take a deep breath!

 

[paindonthurt_]

Of course taking the next step is the goal.

How to get to that goal is where we differ.

It’s 100% not going to happen in 2 to 3 years without a ton of luck.

 

[Ralph Cramden]

It seems we all talk about recruiting in state as so have our previous coaches but I personally would like to see us somehow improve our recruiting footprint out of state a whole lot more. While Ms has produced a lot of NFL players over the years we are still a relatively small population state. Seems we always rely way too much on instate recruiting as if that’s our only means.

Leach is doing that already. We are more active in Texas and Florida than ever

 

[Russ Wheeler]

Of course taking the next step is the goal.

How to get to that goal is where we differ.

It’s 100% not going to happen in 2 to 3 years without a ton of luck.

You just said I need to take a deep breath, so you obviously do not even believe we CAN take the next step. THAT is where we differ.

Honestly, Cohen may or may not believe we can do it, but he's trying (in his own way). That's why he hired Leach.

 

[campshelbydog842003]

This is certainly true for this year, as far as fit and evaluations. This year and even next are going to be nuts as far as recruiting rankings. Will be fascinating to look back on in 3-4 years. My guess is a bunch of really talented kids wind up at G5’s and excel and then a lot of them will transfer. Every school would be wise to leave a little wiggle room on their roster for transfers, next couple of years.

But, I’d also add, that if you want to have a chance to win the West, especially with A&M in it now, too; you better recruit in the Top 20-25, at worst. You just aren’t hardly going to beat Alabama, LSU, Auburn, and A&M all in the same year, with them consistently signing Top 10-15 classes, with an average recruiting class of 28, that are “good fits”. You can certainly beat them some, but to run them all in the same year takes a Dak type talent (rare), some luck (also rare for MSU and OM - hence the 4th and 25), and a program or two struggling that year. And that’s uncommon, because of their talent. And that’s without mention Arkansas or Ole Miss (or MSU in our case) who are going to sign Top 30 classes, at worst, typically. Plus the fact that you could draw Florida or Georgia (Top 10 recruiters) on a given year.

Being an MSU and OM fan is a balancing act. We all want to be rational and recognize that unreasonable expectations are, well... unreasonable. But, we also have to realize that if we ever want to be more than mediocre, we’ve got to recruit at a really high level AND have schematic/coaching advantages. Because if we get a coach that’s actually good enough to win the West with below average (by SEC standards) talent, he’s going to be very hard to hang on to.

I agree that we need to recruit at least in the top 25 level in the sec, but especially on the defensive side. I think Leach will eventually field an offense that works with his “system players” that aren’t necessarily as highly rated in spots like the OL (he is attracting big time out of state talent at receiver and qb which is encouraging), but he is going to have to recruit better defensively to compete for anything real in the conference. As bad as our offense is right now I know complaining about defensive recruiting sounds insane, but long term that is what I’m most worried about. It isn’t really his fault this year considering how depleted the state is with defensive talent.

 

[the dog is on the loose]

Leach is doing that already. We are more active in Texas and Florida than ever

Yeah that’s good

 

[operch]

Mike Leach didn’t get better at WSU because his recruiting ranking went up. When you are recruiting in the 50s and 60s the rankings don’t matter that much (Hugh freeze has signed the 135th rated class and the 89th rated class and is beating the **** out of everyone he plays at that level and their P5 opponents). It is the fit for what you are trying to do and your developmental qualities as a coach. I am worried about our defensive players recruiting ranking a lot more than the offensive side of the ball, and Arnett has already proved he can make chicken salad.

He currently has a bunch of big, slow, road graders on the OL and he needs 5 offensive tackle type guys that can move. He is going to take a bunch of projects on the offensive line just like he always has because we don’t produce many of those types in this state. We need a lot more speed at receiver and that is on the way with this recruiting class. His quarterback of the future is in this recruiting class. His DC is the biggest recruiting job in front of him for this class. Arnett has to be retained.

Another thing that needs to be remembered is that this is the worst in state class of prospects this state has produced in a very long time. We are going to have a top 30 class in a year where there is not much to choose from in the state. Joe Moorhead got a lot of praise for completely shitting the bed in the best in state class of prospects the state has ever seen and Leach is going to damn near match that class ranking with the worst in state group ever and somehow moorhead was supposedly the better recruiter.

Also consider there has been 0 face to face contact because of cv19

 

[thatsbaseball]

If we're ever to become "good" again it'll be as much because of player development as it will recruiting. That's where Leach will need to excel.

 

[oxfordrebel22]

I agree that we need to recruit at least in the top 25 level in the sec, but especially on the defensive side. I think Leach will eventually field an offense that works with his “system players” that aren’t necessarily as highly rated in spots like the OL (he is attracting big time out of state talent at receiver and qb which is encouraging), but he is going to have to recruit better defensively to compete for anything real in the conference. As bad as our offense is right now I know complaining about defensive recruiting sounds insane, but long term that is what I’m most worried about. It isn’t really his fault this year considering how depleted the state is with defensive talent.

I think that’s very reasonable. I agree. It seems to me like coaches can take 3-star talents and move the ball, if they’re good coaches and good play callers, and everyone’s on the same page. Because the offense knows where they are going on the play, the defense doesn’t. Certainly good DC’s matter, but you’ve got to have talent to be really good defensively. Ole Miss and MSU have both had #1 defenses in the country in the last 6-7 years, and if you look, both of those teams had several NFL players on defense, and dominant interior DL and Edge rushers (Nkemdiche, Channing Ward, marquis Haynes, breeland speaks, Isaac gross, Fadol Brown and Woody Hamilton at OM; Jeffrey Simmons and Montez Sweat, plus several other studs at MSU). If you want to see how high either teams defensive ceiling is in the future, just watch the DL recruiting. (It ain’t pretty at OM, at least not currently)

 

[patdog]

We will always be a player development program. The good periods and bad periods will be because of player development, not recruiting.

 

[Russ Wheeler]

We will always be a player development program. The good periods and bad periods will be because of player development, not recruiting.

That thinking has to change. We have to have both. Development is a given, but the talent profile must be improved. No other option.

Whatever offense, defense, scheme, schtick, culture, etc. we have to do to attract the best players available to us, we have to do it.

This is the main job of the AD - to figure out what that is, for all sports.

 

[patdog]

Of course we have to recruit the best players we can. But we will never, ever, ever recruit to the same level as Bama, Auburn, LSU and A&M in football no matter what we do. We have to be a player development program to have a chance against them.

 

[Russ Wheeler]

Of course we have to recruit the best players we can. But we will never, ever, ever recruit to the same level as Bama, Auburn, LSU and A&M in football no matter what we do. We have to be a player development program to have a chance against them.

We don’t have to recruit like them, to meet our expectations. We just have to do what I outlined in the OP.

 

[paindonthurt_]

Expecting it to happen 3 years post coaching change vs a gradual improvement are two completely different things.

I laid out the generic blueprint. You want to wave your wand.