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Mississippi has a US Senate race

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patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
60,655
31,991
113
I'm calling ******** on that. Sees that it's from 538, I'm definitely calling ******** on that.
 
M

MSUDC11

Redshirt
Aug 23, 2012
7,316
0
0
I would be floored if Espy wins. Cindy beat him by 7 points two years ago even after the whole "public hanging" comments, and the voter turnout in a presidential election year will be higher which probably favors Cindy.

The same poll shows Trump as a 10 point favorite over Biden in MS. I don't see the senate election going much differently at all from how the presidential vote split goes.
 
dorndawg

dorndawg

Heisman
Sep 10, 2012
9,383
10,766
113
patdog said:
I'm calling ******** on that. Sees that it's from 538, I'm definitely calling ******** on that.
Click to expand...


As I am sure you are aware, 538 is a website about polling. The poll was conducted by The Tyson Group.
 
Maroon Eagle

Maroon Eagle

All-American
May 24, 2006
18,598
8,573
102
It's a Tyson Group poll (but as you noted available via 538 ).

Nineteen percent undecided. I expect CHS to get the bulk of that vote and win.
 
J

johnson86-1

All-American
Aug 22, 2012
15,205
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dorndawg said:
As I am sure you are aware, 538 is a website about polling. The poll was conducted by The Tyson Group.
Click to expand...

Is the Tyson Group partisan? Some partisan polling groups used to push rosy numbers early, and then right before the election they'd put out their best guess so when you went back and judged them against their predictions, they looked accurate. Not sure if they still do that.
 
dorndawg

dorndawg

Heisman
Sep 10, 2012
9,383
10,766
113
MSUDC11 said:
I would be floored if Espy wins. Cindy beat him by 7 points two years ago even after the whole "public hanging" comments, and the voter turnout in a presidential election year will be higher which probably favors Cindy.

The same poll shows Trump as a 10 point favorite over Biden in MS. I don't see the senate election going much differently at all from how the presidential vote split goes.
Click to expand...


This is all reasonable analysis. I would add, that 7 point win is the closest Senate race we've had in AGES. I don't get the sense voters are pissed a CHS, but I'm not sure she's done a lot to endear herself either?
 
D

Duke Humphrey

All-Conference
Oct 3, 2013
2,780
1,939
113
Was a close race because it was a special election with nothing else (competitive) on the ballot, Espy was a decent enough candidate who actually spent more than CHS in 2018, and CHS has her missteps. As MSUDC11 points out, with presidential election and other issues on the ballot, I expect CHS to win by double digits.
 
J

johnson86-1

All-American
Aug 22, 2012
15,205
5,748
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dorndawg said:
This is all reasonable analysis. I would add, that 7 point win is the closest Senate race we've had in AGES. I don't get the sense voters are pissed a CHS, but I'm not sure she's done a lot to endear herself either?
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Pretty much. I've never met anybody impressed with her, but at the same time, she hasn't done anything to get primaried, and I think she'd get primaried before she lost the general.
 
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Ibdancin

All-Conference
Feb 9, 2018
2,625
1,218
113
johnson86-1 said:
Pretty much. I've never met anybody impressed with her, but at the same time, she hasn't done anything to get primaried, and I think she'd get primaried before she lost the general.
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She's going to win and with what the DEMS and their leadership is doing and saying right now, the whole of the DEM party is in trouble.

Look at what Pelosi stated "we can impeach him every day of the week for anything he does." She literally just stated that!
 
thatsbaseball

thatsbaseball

All-American
May 29, 2007
18,388
7,435
113
And I am really tired of being faced with these type "choices" especially for important offices.
 
QuaoarsKing

QuaoarsKing

All-Conference
Mar 11, 2008
6,298
3,056
113
I find it hard to believe Espy has any chance, as it would probably require a 100,000 or more people to vote for both Trump and Espy, but I'd be surprised if more than a few thousand (if that) people do that.

You can see the whole history of polling on this race here [TRIGGER WARNING: 538 LINK. None of the polls were conducted by 538, they're just compiling them]:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/mississippi/

There haven't been very many polls, and none by pollsters with a history of being the most accurate.

This poll (or "poll" perhaps) was conducted in late August, so it wouldn't be worth much even if the result were a more believable Hyde-Smith +10 or something, since so much has happened since then. Also note that this same polling firm had Hyde-Smith leading by 28 points six months. There's just no way Espy could have closed a gap like that without anyone noticing, so we should probably not take anything they put out seriously.
 
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JungRebel

Redshirt
Aug 23, 2012
2,606
0
0
Who the 17 is going to the polls to vote for Trump and Espy? I'd like to talk to THAT guy.
 
L

lanceharbor7

Freshman
Feb 24, 2008
924
65
28
Vote a third party. If the two major parties can only come up with a bunch of geriatric sycophants two elections in a row, then it would be wise to consider a third option.


thatsbaseball said:
And I am really tired of being faced with these type "choices" especially for important offices.
Click to expand...
 
CoastRat.sixpack

CoastRat.sixpack

Junior
Sep 15, 2009
505
297
63
Ibdancin said:
She's going to win and with what the DEMS and their leadership is doing and saying right now, the whole of the DEM party is in trouble.

Look at what Pelosi stated "we can impeach him every day of the week for anything he does." She literally just stated that!
Click to expand...

It’s a true statement. They can.

I’m a Republican yet I have to laugh at people criticizing what Dems say as if anything can be more embarrassing than the tweeter in chief.
 
$altyDawg

$altyDawg

Senior
Aug 30, 2018
1,322
590
113
They're doing pretty good at keeping her quiet, because she gaffes on par with Biden she gets off script. I've not heard one thing from her, not even a TV ad.
 
J

johnson86-1

All-American
Aug 22, 2012
15,205
5,748
113
Ibdancin said:
She's going to win and with what the DEMS and their leadership is doing and saying right now, the whole of the DEM party is in trouble.

Look at what Pelosi stated "we can impeach him every day of the week for anything he does." She literally just stated that!
Click to expand...

The dem leadership is definitely not doing their candidates outside of crazy left areas any favors right now. If they could have just not been crazy, they could probably pick up solid majorities in the house and senate. All the distasteful things Trump says and does might stick to him and hurt republicans if democrtas could have provided a non-crazy alternative. Might would have hurt them in the presidential if they really need the crazies to turn out (I'm somewhat skeptical that the crazies are more important than undecided voters in the swing states, but I guess they know their base better than me), but if I were them, I'd rather have the senate and the house than the presidency.
 
J

johnson86-1

All-American
Aug 22, 2012
15,205
5,748
113
patdog said:
Yep. Phil did us no favors appointing her.
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He really didn't. I don't understand why he didn't appoint lynn fitch. SHe's not great, but she's better than Cindy. The onlly argument for Cindy over Fitch is that she's older and won't stick around until she costs Mississippi a senate seat.

I know he was worried about dipshit from Laurel in the primary and she had at least won a statewide election, although for a position most people don't pay attention to. But I still can't believe there weren't dozens of better candidates he could have picked from the legislature or business community.
 
J

johnson86-1

All-American
Aug 22, 2012
15,205
5,748
113
CoastRat said:
It’s a true statement. They can.

I’m a Republican yet I have to laugh at people criticizing what Dems say as if anything can be more embarrassing than the tweeter in chief.
Click to expand...

I guess "embarrassing" is not quite the right word when your political party turns a blind eye to businesses being burned down, but give me the guy that tweets stupid things.
 
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Willow Grove Dawg

All-American
Nov 3, 2016
8,449
6,168
113
There is a glass ceiling of 47% for Democrats in Mississippi statewide elections. Jim Hood is the most popular Democrat in a generation & he got 46.83% of the votes in the governor's election last fall against a very flawed & disliked Tate Reeves. CHS will win 54-46 or 55-45. Polls be damned
 
QuaoarsKing

QuaoarsKing

All-Conference
Mar 11, 2008
6,298
3,056
113
GloryDawg said:
I think the Republican could lose Maine but gain Alabama. It is going to be a wash in the Senate.
Click to expand...

 
$altyDawg

$altyDawg

Senior
Aug 30, 2018
1,322
590
113
She and her handlers are undoubtedly not concerned. I have not seen or heard an ad of hers on TV or radio. 2 years ago after the debate was a mudslinging fiasco until election day.
 
C

crackerjax

Sophomore
Aug 24, 2012
343
177
43
The same pollster, The Tyson Group, also put out polls yesterday saying that Trump is up by only 4 in Alabama and is down 4 in Texas. That should tell you everything you need to know about The Tyson Group.
 
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