UCLA/Stanford coronavirus study

[Oak23]

Anyone see the approximate numbers on this study?
1-3800 chance of getting the virus
1-850000 chance of needing hospital care from the virus.
1-18 million chance of dying from the virus.
I believe these numbers are for a healthy 50-64 yr old.

Additionally, the chance of dying in a car crash is 1-114.
What happened and why did we wreck our economy for this? If these numbers are accurate, it’s understandable that hard working Americans would be beyond angry, especially those who lost their business. Some of Those are the Americans are the ones whose dreams have died.

It begs the question, Why are there any restrictions at all anywhere?

 

[jethreauxdawg]

Because 1-18million is not an acceptable risk. What if your relative was that 1?**

 

[Russ Wheeler]

Well, I can grant a little leeway for back in March, when so many things were simply unknown. But at this point months later, being afraid of this virus is silly. You just protect yourself the best you can.

I've often said, vaccine or not, we just need to get some time behind this thing for all the scaredy-cats to simply 'get used to it'. Eventually even the most fearful people will want to live and just start taking on more risks over time.

 

[SyonaraStanz]

Because 1-18million is not an acceptable risk. What if your relative was that 1?

Following that line of thinking, I'm guessing you never step foot in a vehicle, nor do you all your relatives to?

 

[sandwolf.sixpack]

Following that line of thinking, I'm guessing you never step foot in a vehicle, nor do you all your relatives to?

I'm pretty sure he was being sarcastic.

 

[GloryDawg]

Why in the hell are those schools to scared to play football?

 

[jethreauxdawg]

I apologize. ** added

 

[TheStateUofMS]

Because lots of politicians live for the power they have and the power they want to create for themselves. Some have been setting records for the world's longest orgasms at this point.

 

[HailStout]

[

It begs the question, Why are there any restrictions at all anywhere?[/QUOTE]

Because the health care system would have been overwhelmed without said restrictions. I am not arguing that every restriction that was put in place is appropriate. I also am not arguing for a shutdown. I really do not want to have that discussion anymore. But I can tell you from personal experience that the second wave was unreal, and it was only after people started following some guidelines that things got better. I really wish both sides would just talk and stop making this an all or none thing. And I do mean both sides. The dismissal of the more conservative voices by some has not helped the situation

 

[Tracer Bullet]

There are almost 43 million people in this age range. So that means almost 3 healthy people have died from Covid that are 55-64?
The CDC says around 21k with Covid have died in this age range. If you believe those numbers are accurate then I think the conclusion might be there are almost no adults over 55 that don't have some underlying condition.

I'm not discounting the fear mongering, but you can make the numbers be very biased in either direction if you want.

 

[SyonaraStanz]

I'm pretty sure he was being sarcastic.

View attachment 17656

 

[NWADawg]

View attachment 17656

I think we should close everything down and make illegal everything that anyone has ever died from including making it illegal to closing everything down. **

 

[HotMop]

Anyone see the approximate numbers on this study?
1-3800 chance of getting the virus
1-850000 chance of needing hospital care from the virus.
1-18 million chance of dying from the virus.
I believe these numbers are for a healthy 50-64 yr old.

Additionally, the chance of dying in a car crash is 1-114.
What happened and why did we wreck our economy for this? If these numbers are accurate, it’s understandable that hard working Americans would be beyond angry, especially those who lost their business. Some of Those are the Americans are the ones whose dreams have died.

It begs the question, Why are there any restrictions at all anywhere?

So what, it's only 2 weeks.....

 

[Arthur2478]

There are almost 43 million people in this age range. So that means almost 3 healthy people have died from Covid that are 55-64?
The CDC says around 21k with Covid have died in this age range. If you believe those numbers are accurate then I think the conclusion might be there are almost no adults over 55 that don't have some underlying condition.

I'm not discounting the fear mongering, but you can make the numbers be very biased in either direction if you want.

But even 21k out of 43 million is less than 1/2 of 1/10 of 1% of that age group. It's preposterous to claim those numbers should justify destroying the economy and sending 10s of millions into the unemployment line.

 

[TaleofTwoDogs]

Be very, very careful with third-hand statistics. What is the numerator here, cases in San Francisco or LA, against a denominator of all world-wide cases? Without the underlying details of the study, statistics should be taken with a grain of salt.

 

[mstateglfr]

Anyone see the approximate numbers on this study?
1-3800 chance of getting the virus
1-850000 chance of needing hospital care from the virus.
1-18 million chance of dying from the virus.
I believe these numbers are for a healthy 50-64 yr old.

Additionally, the chance of dying in a car crash is 1-114.
What happened and why did we wreck our economy for this? If these numbers are accurate, it’s understandable that hard working Americans would be beyond angry, especially those who lost their business. Some of Those are the Americans are the ones whose dreams have died.

It begs the question, Why are there any restrictions at all anywhere?

The odds of dying in a car crash are 1 in 114?
Are you saying that every time I get into a car I have a .09% chance of dying? Are you saying that when in a car crash, there is a.09% chance that said crash is fatal for me?

Its almost as if the numbers you are posting are confusing and probably dont tell the full story, yet you ask a question based on the full story...

 

[UpTheMiddlex3Punt]

Those numbers are wrong.

First, I'll link to the actual study: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.06.20124446v2.full.pdf

Second, the number 1/3800 does not appear in the study. That number is 0.00026. The number 0.026 does appear as the case hospitalization rate for people under 50. That's a 1/38 chance for people who get the virus. A lot worse than the 1/114 for a car crash, and that's over an entire lifetime.

If you only had a 1/3800 chance of getting the virus ever, then we would expect 86,000 Americans to get the virus. That's clearly not the case.

I imagine the odds are closer to a 1/3800 chance of you getting it on any one day.

 

[Tracer Bullet]

But even 21k out of 43 million is less than 1/2 of 1/10 of 1% of that age group. It's preposterous to claim those numbers should justify destroying the economy and sending 10s of millions into the unemployment line.

You are using the entire population as your denominator for a disease that has been around for 6 months. I think the death rate for that group is around 3% doing some rough math from the CDC website of cases vs deaths.
The actual rate is probably lower since your denominator would increase if you knew how many people had the disease and never showed symptoms.

The original posters numbers are so wildly inaccurate it undermines the credibility of his argument regardless of whether his conclusion ends up being correct.

 

[GloryDawg]

The odds of dying in a car crash are 1 in 114?
Are you saying that every time I get into a car I have a .09% chance of dying? Are you saying that when in a car crash, there is a.09% chance that said crash is fatal for me?

Its almost as if the numbers you are posting are confusing and probably dont tell the full story, yet you ask a question based on the full story...

Just drive in the right lane and the odds get's better. ********

 

[horshack.sixpack]

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -Mark Twain