How effective would a hard core lockdown be against Covid?

[HailStout]

You're the only poster mentioning "flattening the curve" and "overwhelmed the emergency Healthcare system back in March and April."

Thus, you should ask your question to yourself.

I will be the second. I really don’t want to fight about this, but he is right: the shutdown did flatten the curve, but we waisted it as I stated in my previous post. I wish to god we could go back to normal. I wish to god I could send my kids back to school with no reservations. I wish to god that I didn’t have to call husbands /wives:/ children of patients and tell them the person they loved was gone. This is not going away. Unfortunately if people keep acting like there is nothing to worry about we are going to lose a lot more people that we shouldn’t. For the life of me I still have no idea how the hell this is a political issue. We have become so partisan that we scream at each other over a virus that could give two ***** your political party is.

 

[Shamoan]

We are ripping the band aid off as slowly and painfully as possible. Vulnerable people will still die and those that don’t, likely don’t have an extensive future beyond this virus. Protect the vulnerable by asking them to stay out of harms way, but you can’t continue to have 30-40 million Americans on unemployment and 30-50% of the businesses shut down permanently because that will do more damage than the virus ever could.

 

[Ozarkdawg]

Serious question, would it actually get to a worse, worse?

Early on people were discussing how the immune system is negatively affected by isolation. I dont know how long that takes
Different for everyone i suppose. Could the social distancing that has occurred actually weakened immune systems and now folks have started going too wide open, getting exposed, spreading? Would 2, 3, or 4 weeks of hard lockdown cause that to be worse when it's over? I don't know, just had that thought run through my head.

 

[dawgoneyall]

If we put basically everyone on house arrest for 2 weeks except for essential health care and law enforcement what would be the expected outcome on virus numbers afterwards?

I’ve gotten the point where I would gladly hole up for 2-3 weeks if it meant reasonable normality when coming out of it. And by that I means schools and extracurricular activities are fully back to normal with reasonable guidelines and safety measures.

I just don’t know how effective that would really be long term?

Not much.

How effective is waiting 10 minutes before jumping off a cliff.

 

[40 acres and a mule]

This bold paragraph- do you have stats?
What is the confirmed increased number if suicides due to the fallout of how covid has been handled? How does one even obtain such a confirmed statistic?
And how many have been misdiagnosed or undiagnosed due to a lack of in person access to Healthcare? Again, how does one even obtain such a confirmed statistic?


As for the booming economy, it was a house of cards before this and even if we had done nothing, the economy would have been crushed due to its ties to other countries that did shut down.

Also, do you honestly still not understand the concept of flattening the curve? Had nothing been done, we would have overwhelmed the emergency Healthcare system back in March and April. Really, why is this still being discussed in August?

Source: New York Times. You asked for stats; I found these. I do not vouch for their accuracy. New York Times after all.

 

[paindonthurt_]

Bc we aren’t trying to stop the virus! It can’t be stopped without a vaccine or herd immunity.

WE ARE TRYING TO NOT OVERWHELM THE SYSTEM!

If there is a specific area where the system is truly being overwhelmed, extra precautions or possibly even draconian measures should be used FOR THAT SPECIFIC AREA ONLY!

 

[campshelbydog842003]

No one said people were spitting on each other. It’s just a way to prove to someone like you how a mask works.

Forget the spit, hold a mirror up in front of your face and breath air on it, it’ll fog up. Then do it with a mask on, it fogs up way less.

And again, never once did I say a mask would stop absolutely everything. Never even suggested that. I said a mask would allow way less to get through. That’s a fact. I’m sorry you don’t understand that or at this point are just to stubborn to admit it.

You sound like a 5 year old that holds their hands over their eyes and thinks their parents can’t see them just because they can’t see their parents. The virus gets through a cloth non medical mask like a minnow through a soccer goal net. It’s not helping and the numbers not
going down continually prove that.

 

[paindonthurt_]

This is the thing that gets me.

Some people think federal officers shouldn’t be stopping/arresting people in Portland for breaking actual laws and damaging property.

Some of those same people want the federal government to force innocent people to stay inside for weeks and use force if necessary.

Upside down world.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

That’s silly. So you’re not going to talk to anyone or cough or sneeze at all in public? And in places like a grocery store it’s pretty impossible to socially distance all the time.

 

[DoomSlayer]

Because you have to wear a mask to go anywhere in this country that isn’t private property right now and the numbers aren’t going down, genius. Have you not been out of your cellar for the last month? You can’t go anywhere that doesn’t require one. Use some damn common sense.

This just isn't true. I go places all the time where many people refuse to wear a mask. Walmart and all other national chains backed off their mask mandate because of the fear of violence against employees. Now they only will offer maskless people a mask, if they refuse they are still allowed in the store. I picked up takeout at a restaurant, went in and the place was packed and nobody was wearing a mask or practicing distancing. Grocery store, dollar store, more people without a mask than with one.

 

[ronpolk]

You sound like a 5 year old that holds their hands over their eyes and thinks their parents can’t see them just because they can’t see their parents. The virus gets through a cloth non medical mask like a minnow through a soccer goal net. It’s not helping and the numbers not
going down continually prove that.

The mask mandate was put in place on July 13th for only 13 counties. More counties have since been added but there has not been enough time to have stats say if the mask are reducing cases or not. Did you think a mandate would start reducing cases immediately? Even if new cases stay stagnant or slightly increase you have no way of knowing that things wouldn’t have increased without the mandate.

I suppose 99% of doctors, the CDC, Dr. Faucci could all be wrong and campshelbydog is right though. Probably a high probability of that**

 

[Cooterpoot]

I know of almost 100 people who contracted the virus. None of them were wearing masks when exposed. Two died. All but about 10 caught it from a relative who wasn't wearing a mask in a bar or at a large gathering.

 

[msstate7]

I know of almost 100 people who contracted the virus. None of them were wearing masks when exposed. Two died. All but about 10 caught it from a relative who wasn't wearing a mask in a bar or at a large gathering.

I don't know a lot thats got it, but I know a few. Most of the ones that got it, got it in hospital where they work, so they wore masks. There was one that was pretty anti-mask. There's one that post constantly (very annoying) on Facebook berating everyone to wear a mask. Now she has it and is posting about she's not sure why God brought this trial on her or something. The guy that was anti-mask was an Indian in his early 40s, and covid killed him. The others (not sure about mask crusader) all recovered fine. I wear my mask in all public indoor places.

 

[mstateglfr]

^^^
Possibly one of the libs who insisted or agreed with the moronic "experts" who claimed the stock market would crash within days of Trump's election...and then when it didn't happen, say it would when he took office...and then when it didn't happen claimed that Obama was so freaking brilliant that his policies were the ones that really got our economy booming, and were in fact so very good that the economy was able to survive a Trump presidency for years.

View attachment 17078

 

[Cooterpoot]

If you think masks are bad

View attachment 17080

 

[mstateglfr]

You're the only poster mentioning "flattening the curve" and "overwhelmed the emergency Healthcare system back in March and April."

Thus, you should ask your question to yourself.

I'm the only poster mentioning these things, but that doesnt meean they are incorrect. I mentitled them only as a response to a poster who seemingly doesn't understand the concept.
Others on here understand and accept the concept, so it isnt heavily discussed anymore.

 

[SirBarksalot]

You sound like a 5 year old that holds their hands over their eyes and thinks their parents can’t see them just because they can’t see their parents. The virus gets through a cloth non medical mask like a minnow through a soccer goal net. It’s not helping and the numbers not
going down continually prove that.

Why anyone is still trying to convince you of the benefits of wearing a mask is beyond me..i count myself among the guilty. For some reason you don’t get the concept of respiratory droplets. You’re focused on the size of a virus and it’s ability to migrate through a covering. What you cannot understand is that the virus is carried by the droplets.

Have you read a single scientific or slightly scientific article?
Ok..I’m guilty, but here ya go again..
https://www.livescience.com/face-mask-visualization-droplets-covid-19.html
And If someone doesn’t understand the efficacy of slowing the spread after 5 months, they will never get it.

 

[ronpolk]

Why anyone is still trying to convince you of the benefits of wearing a mask is beyond me..i count myself among the guilty. For some reason you don’t get the concept of respiratory droplets. You’re focused on the size of a virus and it’s ability to migrate through a covering. What you cannot understand is that the virus is carried by the droplets.

Have you read a single scientific or slightly scientific article?
Ok..I’m guilty, but here ya go again..
https://www.livescience.com/face-mask-visualization-droplets-covid-19.html
And If someone doesn’t understand the efficacy of slowing the spread after 5 months, they will never get it.

Yeah, he’s got his heels dug in now and won’t admit there is a benefit. He won’t even admit basic facts, that aren’t even up for debate, such as a mask (of any kind) will prevent less stuff from your mouth and nose from getting out in the air. He’s basically arguing the equivalent of a hat not being able to keep sun off your head.

He clearly has just resorted to hurling insults because he has no facts to stand on. His opinion is formed by Facebook memes

 

[archdog]

That’s what I’m saying if you go hard core and come out do we just end up back where we are today in a month?

With small businesses it’s a slow death. I’d rather see a govt plan than would pay everyone to stay home for 3 weeks if we thought it would be effectively than haveing to dish out billions over months and years.

Basically it’s a “take the bad tasting medicine” idea. But if it would have no longer term success then really nothing will so that would be a clear argument for the “learn to live with it” crowd

If we did total damn lock down for 3 weeks, the numbers would drop. That means no trips to Lowes. Groceries brought out to your car. No gatherings what so ever other than the people you live with. Eat at home only. No in person meetings. No nothing. The most important part is to distance yourself and limit any and all contact.

Then maybe another 3 weeks after that limiting all contact if you are in public. Screw the 6 foot rule. Limit in public indoor time to 3 minutes. Everyone wear a mask properly. And everyone wash your hands 30 times a day.

I would also add that all healthcare personnel would need to be isolated for the entire time they are dealing with patients plus 20 days.

During this time, 3 things would need to happen. 1. Testing will have to be fixed. 2. Numbers will need to be reduced where you can start contact tracing. 3. An actual plan on how we open up with have to be developed and implemented correctly. If not, then why yhe 17 do it. Every damn jurisdiction in the country 17ed up this reopening because they didn't stress that social distancing and good personal health guidel8nes still needed to be maintained. They just opened the 17 up. Some states like MS didn't even see the numbers start to drop before they waved the all clear.

 

[archdog]

You are 100% right. It’s not going away.

The problem is that everyone who is calling for the government to fix it is missing the point. The government can set up a plan, but then we have to follow it. The states ignored the federal governments plan to reopen in phases, and the rest of us ignored the recommendations for group sizes, masks, etc. Ultimately people have to take some personal responsibility or this is the way it is going to be. Keep in mind that even the vaccine isn’t going to be a complete fix as there is a very large portion of the population who will refuse to get it because of aliens / deep state / bill Gates microchip.

The only way for the government to fix it is for them to step in and take total control like China has every time there is a new cluster of cases. No one wants that, but I am losing faith that we have the ability to make any kind of significant personal sacrifice for the greater good. We can’t talk out of one side and say we want small government and then yell at the government out of the other side for not stopping a pandemic with absolutely no assistance from us. And this is not meant as a personal attack on anyone, I’m just very sad and frustrated with where we are. This is not fauci’s fault. It’s not Trump’s. It’s not the Democrats. It’s ours.

And just to restate what I said earlier, I don’t think we should shut down again.

I disagree. If leadership is given by both political parties then the people will do what they need to do. Shot man, President Trump said wearing mask last week was a good thing to do just once and I saw Republicans jumping on board with masks immediately. Now Trump completely 17ed that up about 45 minutes later by contridicting that with some murky rhetoric. But for those 45 minutes it looked as if the hazy dumb facade was clearing up a little bit.

 

[Dawghouse]

I live in Honduras, a country that has been "locked down" since March 16th.

Even with military enforcement, fines, imprisonment, confiscating your vehicle, it isn't working at all and the ramifications are going to be worse than the virus. Our positive case curve looks about like everyone else's. We just delayed the peak longer than most.

We are allowed to leave our house one day every 2 weeks to get supplies (based on last digit of your ID). I go through a minimum of 8 police/military checkpoints on my day out. Only things open for months were grocery stores, banks, and pharmacies. They've started opening a few more places like hardware stores and take out restaurants.

Based on the numbers I think we just hit our peak about a week ago and are on the downward trend now.

People are starving, everyone has lost their job etc. They won't recover economically for decades. A lot more people will die of the lockdown than the virus when it's all said and done.

Population is about 10 million
Cases 43197
Deaths 1377

One caveat- the testing here is a disaster with about a 2 week delay on results and they can only test about 2000 max a day. There's no random testing. Only people with symptoms are being tested for the most part.

The entire country has 56 ICU beds and until the US donated 100 ventilators we only had like 30 in country. (Socialized medicine)

 

[NWADawg]

Would it work for the time of the lockdown and then increase once the lockdown was ended?

I’m not asking to be argumentative, it’s a legit question. It seems New York and Illinois are places that had pretty strict lockdowns that worked. However, I believe both places are seeing rising cases. I know Chicago moved backwards recently on the phased reopening.

The only way it stays locked down is if we also lock down all borders until all other countries are completely rid of it. So no international travel for businesses or personal, no military coming home, all govt foreign relations done through some secure version of zoom, etc.

It didn't randomly generate here the first time. It was brought here supposedly by a small number of people. And then it spread.

 

[thekimmer]

It might work to control the virus but only temporarily. The virus would inevitably reappear given its worldwide distribution and the vast number of susceptible hosts. It would be like trying to keep fire out of a fuel choked tract of forest with sparks raining down from nearby active blazes. Not only that, the consequences of such a move would likely create more misery and death than it prevented.

The really only real sustainable move we have left is to learn how to live life with this virus like we have every other infectious disease in history.

 

[campshelbydog842003]

The mask mandate was put in place on July 13th for only 13 counties. More counties have since been added but there has not been enough time to have stats say if the mask are reducing cases or not. Did you think a mandate would start reducing cases immediately? Even if new cases stay stagnant or slightly increase you have no way of knowing that things wouldn’t have increased without the mandate.

I suppose 99% of doctors, the CDC, Dr. Faucci could all be wrong and campshelbydog is right though. Probably a high probability of that**

How long do case numbers have to not go down for you to admit wearing a cloth mask is not helping? We already have a good idea of what the numbers are without masks. If they don't go down then they aren't helping. Even though you can't go into a store without one on virtually anywhere, we will hold it to those 13 counties who have a mandate by law just to appease you.

 

[ronpolk]

How long do case numbers have to not go down for you to admit wearing a cloth mask is not helping? We already have a good idea of what the numbers are without masks. If they don't go down then they aren't helping. Even though you can't go into a store without one on virtually anywhere, we will hold it to those 13 counties who have a mandate by law just to appease you.

I still don’t understand why cases have to go down to prove mask are helpful. If it prevents cases from increasing is that not helpful?

But for a time frame, I would think the mandate would at a minimum have to be followed for 2-4 weeks before you started seeing an if there was an impact or not.

 

[msstate7]

https://twitter.com/yinonw/status/1290122952340430848?s=21

 

[DoomSlayer]

How long do case numbers have to not go down for you to admit wearing a cloth mask is not helping? We already have a good idea of what the numbers are without masks. If they don't go down then they aren't helping. Even though you can't go into a store without one on virtually anywhere, we will hold it to those 13 counties who have a mandate by law just to appease you.

Again, national chains have backed off the mask mandate because people were threatening workers with violence. You are offered a mask at the door but if you don’t take it you are still allowed in the store. I was in Walmart yesterday and there were many people without masks on.

Also many local businesses don’t have a mask policy. I go to a grocery store where I’m the only one in there with a mask. The workers don’t even wear one.

 

[mstateglfr]

https://twitter.com/yinonw/status/1290122952340430848?s=21

Ha ha ha, Steve Deace is still around and preaching his special kind of religous exclusion? Delightful.***
That guy used to have a voice on local talk radio and I was constantly surprised he wasnt pulled, until he was finally pulled.

 

[VegasDawg13]

Question: if I don't talk, yell, cough or sneeze when I'm in public . . . and, if I don't get with 6 feet of another person when I'm in public . . . then how has me wearing a mask in public helped to prevent the spread of the virus?

Are your coughs and sneezes planned ahead of time?