How effective would a hard core lockdown be against Covid?

[Irondawg]

If we put basically everyone on house arrest for 2 weeks except for essential health care and law enforcement what would be the expected outcome on virus numbers afterwards?

I’ve gotten the point where I would gladly hole up for 2-3 weeks if it meant reasonable normality when coming out of it. And by that I means schools and extracurricular activities are fully back to normal with reasonable guidelines and safety measures.

I just don’t know how effective that would really be long term?

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

See California Covid graph.... California has been basically locked down the whole time and implemented state wide mask mandate June 18th... it seems forcing people inside spreads virus more...I think that’s why we are having the issue now is because it is so hot, everyone is staying inside, spreading the virus.

 

[msubrave]

I spent the month of June in California. It was definitely open. I'd say less mask wearing than ms too.

 

[baddawggy]

See California Covid graph.... California has been basically locked down the whole time and implemented state wide mask mandate June 18th... it seems forcing people inside spreads virus more...I think that’s why we are having the issue now is because it is so hot, everyone is staying inside, spreading the virus.

********! The reason the virus spread like it did is because this country didn't do a true lockdown. All the stupid *** people not social distancing... marching and protesting like morons... flocked up like chickens in a pen at bars.... beaching it up.... partying it up. This selfish self entitled country is reaping what the majority sowed. This is not going away anytime soon. Get used to it!

 

[HailStout]

It would absolutely work. I in no way think we should do it, but it would work. I am by no means a conspiracy theorist, but this would probably tip the tables for me if it happened. To honestly do a true lockdown would require the government to exert a level of control I doubt anyone is comfortable with. There would Have to be police stops where you present your “essential employee” ID if you are out. There would be arrests for breaking the lockdown. But would it work if implemented? Absolutely. The virus can’t spread if there is no human interaction

 

[MSUDC11]

To me a huge problem right now is private gatherings. People will wear masks when they go to the grocery store or anywhere else in public, but when it’s time for Sunday lunch at granny’s house all caution gets thrown to the wind. At this point almost all businesses are requiring masks and limiting capacity, yet this thing is still spreading in a big way. So I’m not sure what good a lockdown will/would do if people are doing whatever the heck they want in private settings.

My other concern is that we can’t just all stay at home and wait for COVID to go away, because it’s not going away. Yes hopefully we will have a vaccine soon, but it could be months or over a year before it’s readily available for the masses, and even then many people aren’t going to get the vaccine. So whether we open things back up now or in several months I still feel like you’re going to have big spikes in cases. I’m not sure delaying the start of school a month or two is going to change much.

And look, I don’t pretend to be an expert on any of this and I certainly don’t know what the right answer is. It’s certainly an issue with a lot of gray area and I get why there are a variety of viewpoints on the issue. It’s a sucky situation and any decision that is made by our leaders is going to be heavily scrutinized either way.

 

[KeyserSoze1999]

View attachment 17058View attachment 17059

 

[SteelCurtain74]

If we put basically everyone on house arrest for 2 weeks except for essential health care and law enforcement what would be the expected outcome on virus numbers afterwards?

I’ve gotten the point where I would gladly hole up for 2-3 weeks if it meant reasonable normality when coming out of it. And by that I means schools and extracurricular activities are fully back to normal with reasonable guidelines and safety measures.

I just don’t know how effective that would really be long term?

So you're basically saying let's shut down the economy and kill any of the remaining small businesses that barely survived the spring shutdown. Great plan.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

Most everyone I know that was essential (including ourselves) had forms printed out stating we were essential because we thought that it would be that way. And it was not

 

[Wegdawg]

It would have little impact at this point. The virus has too much penetration into the population

 

[KeyserSoze1999]

Don't stop there...ban all physical cash & coins and let The Powers That Be unveil their new Digital Dollar.

View attachment 17060

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

It would have little impact at this point. The virus has too much penetration into the population

You said penetration.

View attachment 17061

 

[ronpolk]

It would absolutely work. I in no way think we should do it, but it would work. I am by no means a conspiracy theorist, but this would probably tip the tables for me if it happened. To honestly do a true lockdown would require the government to exert a level of control I doubt anyone is comfortable with. There would Have to be police stops where you present your “essential employee” ID if you are out. There would be arrests for breaking the lockdown. But would it work if implemented? Absolutely. The virus can’t spread if there is no human interaction

Would it work for the time of the lockdown and then increase once the lockdown was ended?

I’m not asking to be argumentative, it’s a legit question. It seems New York and Illinois are places that had pretty strict lockdowns that worked. However, I believe both places are seeing rising cases. I know Chicago moved backwards recently on the phased reopening.

 

[Irondawg]

That’s what I’m saying if you go hard core and come out do we just end up back where we are today in a month?

With small businesses it’s a slow death. I’d rather see a govt plan than would pay everyone to stay home for 3 weeks if we thought it would be effectively than haveing to dish out billions over months and years.

Basically it’s a “take the bad tasting medicine” idea. But if it would have no longer term success then really nothing will so that would be a clear argument for the “learn to live with it” crowd

 

[HailStout]

You are 100% right. It’s not going away.

The problem is that everyone who is calling for the government to fix it is missing the point. The government can set up a plan, but then we have to follow it. The states ignored the federal governments plan to reopen in phases, and the rest of us ignored the recommendations for group sizes, masks, etc. Ultimately people have to take some personal responsibility or this is the way it is going to be. Keep in mind that even the vaccine isn’t going to be a complete fix as there is a very large portion of the population who will refuse to get it because of aliens / deep state / bill Gates microchip.

The only way for the government to fix it is for them to step in and take total control like China has every time there is a new cluster of cases. No one wants that, but I am losing faith that we have the ability to make any kind of significant personal sacrifice for the greater good. We can’t talk out of one side and say we want small government and then yell at the government out of the other side for not stopping a pandemic with absolutely no assistance from us. And this is not meant as a personal attack on anyone, I’m just very sad and frustrated with where we are. This is not fauci’s fault. It’s not Trump’s. It’s not the Democrats. It’s ours.

And just to restate what I said earlier, I don’t think we should shut down again.

 

[ckDOG]

Looks locked down to me

See California Covid graph.... California has been basically locked down the whole time and implemented state wide mask mandate June 18th... it seems forcing people inside spreads virus more...I think that’s why we are having the issue now is because it is so hot, everyone is staying inside, spreading the virus.

https://www.instagram.com/tv/CDJu1jSjdh2/?igshid=1ayohqf96v95u

 

[L4Dawg]

See California Covid graph.... California has been basically locked down the whole time and implemented state wide mask mandate June 18th... it seems forcing people inside spreads virus more...I think that’s why we are having the issue now is because it is so hot, everyone is staying inside, spreading the virus.

California has not been completely locked down that whole time.

 

[L4Dawg]

It would absolutely work. I in no way think we should do it, but it would work. I am by no means a conspiracy theorist, but this would probably tip the tables for me if it happened. To honestly do a true lockdown would require the government to exert a level of control I doubt anyone is comfortable with. There would Have to be police stops where you present your “essential employee” ID if you are out. There would be arrests for breaking the lockdown. But would it work if implemented? Absolutely. The virus can’t spread if there is no human interaction

That is pretty much what they were doing in the UK for a while.

 

[L4Dawg]

You are 100% right. It’s not going away.

The problem is that everyone who is calling for the government to fix it is missing the point. The government can set up a plan, but then we have to follow it. The states ignored the federal governments plan to reopen in phases, and the rest of us ignored the recommendations for group sizes, masks, etc. Ultimately people have to take some personal responsibility or this is the way it is going to be. Keep in mind that even the vaccine isn’t going to be a complete fix as there is a very large portion of the population who will refuse to get it because of aliens / deep state / bill Gates microchip.

The only way for the government to fix it is for them to step in and take total control like China has every time there is a new cluster of cases. No one wants that, but I am losing faith that we have the ability to make any kind of significant personal sacrifice for the greater good. We can’t talk out of one side and say we want small government and then yell at the government out of the other side for not stopping a pandemic with absolutely no assistance from us. And this is not meant as a personal attack on anyone, I’m just very sad and frustrated with where we are. This is not fauci’s fault. It’s not Trump’s. It’s not the Democrats. It’s ours.

And just to restate what I said earlier, I don’t think we should shut down again.

This is 100% correct.

 

[L4Dawg]

The bottom line is we never really did any kind of lockdown. We closed some businesses and told people to stay home, but we didn't really enforce it. We counted on people to do the right thing, and we found out they won't do it if not forced to.

 

[HailStout]

You are correct. It would get worse if nothing changes after we reopened

 

[Cooterpoot]

It would slow it down, bankrupt a ton of people, kill education, and not eliminate it. This stuff is here forever barring a full vaccine taking it out. We don't even know yet if it will mutate.

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

Would it work for the time of the lockdown and then increase once the lockdown was ended?

I’m not asking to be argumentative, it’s a legit question. It seems New York and Illinois are places that had pretty strict lockdowns that worked. However, I believe both places are seeing rising cases. I know Chicago moved backwards recently on the phased reopening.

The virus ran its course in New York and killed all the vulnerable people.

 

[Hankp22]

The bottom line is we never really did any kind of lockdown. We closed some businesses and told people to stay home, but we didn't really enforce it. We counted on people to do the right thing, and we found out they won't do it if not forced to.

And all that changed about the time some opened up for Memorial Day. I feel our initial lockdown slowed the rate at which the virus spread beyond New York. What we are seeing now is the result of society letting down their guard.

I'm still not sure what our federal strategy is. We have a nationwide pandemic and the mixed messaging is all over the place at a federal level. Our federal strategy was to leave it to the states. And when you place that order on 50 states, you're going to have 50 different attacks on it. Some may work. Some may not. In the era of community spread, if half fail then we all do.

We have 150,000 people dead and 50 million out of work. Instead of a political rally about "ME", let's professionally address the nation about US.

 

[EngDawg]

That’s what I’m saying if you go hard core and come out do we just end up back where we are today in a month?

With small businesses it’s a slow death. I’d rather see a govt plan than would pay everyone to stay home for 3 weeks if we thought it would be effectively than haveing to dish out billions over months and years.

Basically it’s a “take the bad tasting medicine” idea. But if it would have no longer term success then really nothing will so that would be a clear argument for the “learn to live with it” crowd

I think the problem is that three weeks just won’t cut it. It takes 14 days for symptoms to appear in some cases. You can then figure on another 14 days to recover. That gives 4 weeks, but you have to consider that you didn’t isolate everyone individually, but as families and roommates. What if you spread it to your wife on the last day you have symptoms? Now you need an additional 4 weeks for her. So it’s 8 weeks minimum for a true lockdown to be successful.

That being said, people still have to eat and someone still has to man the hospital and keep the electric grid working, so there will be additional spread during this time as well. Some countries with more authoritarian governments did lockdown like this in the spring for 2-3 months. They did drastically reduce the virus, but it was not eliminated and now they are faced with rising cases.

 

[PapaDawg]

The virus is not going away. A vaccine is the only solution. All a lockdown does is slow the spread. The US has virtually eradicated measles, but when people stopped getting vaccinated back comes the measles.
A lock down will slow the spread, but as soon as you open back up, here comes another surge. Until we get a vaccine, people have to learn to live with the virus. Socially distance, wear a mask, stay within your controlled environment as much as you can. Be smart. Common sense when used is a great tool. If you have been blessed to have common sense, use it.

 

[DeltaChicagoDog]

https://www.instagram.com/tv/CDJu1jSjdh2/?igshid=1ayohqf96v95u

California lockdowns are super chill.*

 

[campshelbydog842003]

To me a huge problem right now is private gatherings. People will wear masks when they go to the grocery store or anywhere else in public, but when it’s time for Sunday lunch at granny’s house all caution gets thrown to the wind. At this point almost all businesses are requiring masks and limiting capacity, yet this thing is still spreading in a big way. So I’m not sure what good a lockdown will/would do if people are doing whatever the heck they want in private settings.

My other concern is that we can’t just all stay at home and wait for COVID to go away, because it’s not going away. Yes hopefully we will have a vaccine soon, but it could be months or over a year before it’s readily available for the masses, and even then many people aren’t going to get the vaccine. So whether we open things back up now or in several months I still feel like you’re going to have big spikes in cases. I’m not sure delaying the start of school a month or two is going to change much.

And look, I don’t pretend to be an expert on any of this and I certainly don’t know what the right answer is. It’s certainly an issue with a lot of gray area and I get why there are a variety of viewpoints on the issue. It’s a sucky situation and any decision that is made by our leaders is going to be heavily scrutinized either way.

The problem is that wearing these non medical masks don’t work. It’s a way for people to virtue signal and do what they want without feeling guilt for spreading covid, which they are in fact doing anyway because putting the equivalent of your shirt over your mouth doesn’t help.

 

[msudawg12]

You can only lockdown if youre willing to control with military
You can only control with military if youre willing to kill/arrest
See Portland and decide if you think thats even possible

 

[PBRME]

If you drove by the grocery store or hardware store during the last lockdown you’d know that no lockdown will succeed.

 

[ronpolk]

The problem is that wearing these non medical masks don’t work. It’s a way for people to virtue signal and do what they want without feeling guilt for spreading covid, which they are in fact doing anyway because putting the equivalent of your shirt over your mouth doesn’t help.

Do me a quick favor if you can. Go and spit on a piece of paper. Then after that put your **** over your mouth and spit on the paper again. Which scenario got more spit on the paper?

 

[Crazy Cotton]

That's what most countries did, and many of them are back to close to normal now, with aggressive test and trace to control local outbreaks. There's a large enough segment of our population that is to selfish and stupid to allow that to happen.

 

[M R DAWGS]

Don't stop there...ban all physical cash & coins and let The Powers That Be unveil their new Digital Dollar.

View attachment 17060

Yeah, that way it’ll be much easier to keep track of how much each citizen is worth and what they spend their money on.

 

[Bulldog Bruce]

YOU CAN'T CONTROL IT. There is absolutely no way for every human being on the planet to isolate for 14 to 21 days without killing all those people who actually need help from another human being. How many people die from some sort of disease everyday? We haven't cured many pathogens and they have been spending money on those for years.

Why is this so hard to comprehend?

The steps we have already taken has increased deaths in some catagories like suicides and the inability to diagnose people with the decrease of in-office visits according to some stories out there. We have definitely hurt a booming economy. We have probably done about as good a job as possible.

 

[tenureplan]

My second favorite word outside of moist

 

[tenureplan]

well said Bruce, this thing is here from here on out.

 

[HailStout]

YOU CAN'T CONTROL IT. There is absolutely no way for every human being on the planet to isolate for 14 to 21 days without killing all those people who actually need help from another human being. How many people die from some sort of disease everyday? We haven't cured many pathogens and they have been spending money on those for years.

Why is this so hard to comprehend?

The steps we have already taken has increased deaths in some catagories like suicides and the inability to diagnose people with the decrease of in-office visits according to some stories out there. We have definitely hurt a booming economy. We have probably done about as good a job as possible.

Not trying to be argumentative. I honestly want to know. What do you recommend moving forward?

 

[SirBarksalot]

It would absolutely work. I in no way think we should do it, but it would work. I am by no means a conspiracy theorist, but this would probably tip the tables for me if it happened. To honestly do a true lockdown would require the government to exert a level of control I doubt anyone is comfortable with. There would Have to be police stops where you present your “essential employee” ID if you are out. There would be arrests for breaking the lockdown. But would it work if implemented? Absolutely. The virus can’t spread if there is no human interaction

So after two weeks...then what???

IMO, two week lockdown, would slow it down for two weeks.

 

[campshelbydog842003]

Do me a quick favor if you can. Go and spit on a piece of paper. Then after that put your **** over your mouth and spit on the paper again. Which scenario got more spit on the paper?

Do me a favor. Look at the covid # before everyone started getting mandated to wear masks everywhere they went and look at them now. The **** does not work. You can’t go to a place of business without one and the spread is not stopping at all and we aren’t all spreading it at grandma’s Sunday lunch. Use some 17’ing common sense. The virus isn’t being stopped by a cloth mask. It just isn’t. People aren’t going around spitting on people. It’s way more easily transferred than that. Go put on your goggles while you’re at it.

 

[ckDOG]

You could lock everyone down for a few weeks and it would work.

If we put basically everyone on house arrest for 2 weeks except for essential health care and law enforcement what would be the expected outcome on virus numbers afterwards?

I’ve gotten the point where I would gladly hole up for 2-3 weeks if it meant reasonable normality when coming out of it. And by that I means schools and extracurricular activities are fully back to normal with reasonable guidelines and safety measures.

I just don’t know how effective that would really be long term?

You would still need a hard core contract tracing and re-lock down strategy for every location that flared back up.

Never can or should happen. We don't live in a world that can happen in. It passes too often by folks who appear well. That doesn't happen often. We are just going to have to balance remaining open and some reasonable things to slow it down (definitely masking) until a vaccine/treatment is available. What else can you say? Ignoring it until it dies (would it?) isn't an option. I already know old folks who have died or in ICU and young folks with hurting lungs. It's different than the flu no doubt. Something has to change before we can say 17 it let's just live like we used to.