Everyone's favorite topic, Sweden (covid19)

[msstate7]

Their 7-day avg (349) is as low as it's been since March 31st. Their 3-day avg (107) is as low as it's been since March 16th.

Have they turned the corner?

The Atlantic had an article about herd immunity that had this excerpt in it...

“We just keep running the models, and it keeps coming back at less than 20 percent,” Gomes said. “It’s very striking.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/614035/

 

[jethreauxdawg]

Look at the daily death graph

Don’t you see that massive spike on July 14? That’s about a 500% increase from the day before! Another month at this rate and their won’t be a Sweden to talk about. You’ll see in two weeks.
**

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

Herd immunity is way less than 50%, as we are seeing around the world right now.

What this country desperately needs on several different levels is some degree of normalcy. Put the kids (elementary through college) back in school. Play sports again. Do it all as safely as possible, but do it.

 

[L4Dawg]

Y'all do know what the Swedes do starting in mid June right?

 

[jethreauxdawg]

If you look at the graph, you will notice the rate at which deaths are decreasing actually slows starting in mid June. Huh? When the curve is negative, that’s not when you want to flatten it.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

It looks like all of Europe has herd immunity. Especially the Northern countries that spend time outdoors walking, biking, eating in open air restaurants, and only use HVAC in their bedrooms for the most part..

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[Irondawg]

How does that compare to same chart for US and then what does Europe's positive test chart look like?

 

[missouridawg]

I swear I'm not trying to be a troll here... but do the European countries count COVID deaths the same way we do? As in, if you die WITH covid, you're a covid death and it's not necessary that you die OF covid.

 

[Captain Ron]

Don’t you see that massive spike on July 14? That’s about a 500% increase from the day before! Another month at this rate and their won’t be a Sweden to talk about. You’ll see in two weeks.
**

And no matter what, it has to be some other reason that herd immunity for the downtrend right? Of course all the other numbers like ICU bed usage and care sessions have been going down even before cases showed a significant decline.

 

[Captain Ron]

Y'all do know what the Swedes do starting in mid June right?

Not wearing masks apparently..

https://www.economist.com/graphic-d...r-face-masks-europes-latest-north-south-split

 

[msstate7]

Think most all of those countries' cases are flat too, but not sure why you used deaths pertaining to herd immunity. Not sure about all those countries, did they stay open like Sweden?

 

[L4Dawg]

It looks like all of Europe has herd immunity. Especially the Northern countries that spend time outdoors walking, biking, eating in open air restaurants, and only use HVAC in their bedrooms for the most part..

This time of year most of them are on vacation at their county houses as well. The schools are finally closed and workplaces that aren't closed are short staffed. Windows are open everywhere because the weather is usually very nice. So basically they are socially distanced and mostly in places that are well ventilated with fresh air. My guess is the normal circumstances in the summer are much better there right now than ours were under our shutdowns when it comes to slowing transmission.

 

[Shmuley]

This spool is crxxmz without bikini photos.

 

[Felonious Junk]

Can’t believe you want bikini pics of L4

 

[L4Dawg]

https://www.boston.com/news/coronavirus/2020/07/08/sweden-coronavirus-cautionary-tale

 

[Captain Ron]

This time of year most of them are on vacation at their county houses as well. The schools are finally closed and workplaces that aren't closed are short staffed. Windows are open everywhere because the weather is usually very nice. So basically they are socially distanced and mostly in places that are well ventilated with fresh air. My guess is the normal circumstances in the summer are much better there right now than ours were under our shutdowns when it comes to slowing transmission.

I know it doesn’t fit your narrative, but social distancing doesn’t seem to be happening at the level you indicate over there.

https://youtu.be/U8lckBkHjZk

Try going to YouTube and look at other recently uploaded videos.. people are in the parks, beach, lakes and malls... reminds me of...

oh never mind.

 

[L4Dawg]

https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/15/covid19-accidental-sweden-fall-could-be-catastrophic/

 

[L4Dawg]

I know it doesn’t fit your narrative, but social distancing doesn’t seem to be happening at the level you indicate over there.

https://youtu.be/U8lckBkHjZk

Try going to YouTube and look at other recently uploaded videos.. people are in the parks, beach, lakes and malls... reminds me of...

oh never mind.

Oh well if it's on Youtube then that means it's the gold standard. Read the last article I posted.

 

[dorndawg]

 

[Captain Ron]

Oh well if it's on Youtube then that means it's the gold standard. Read the last article I posted.

I had read the article long before you posted it. And you know what I meant with the YouTube videos. I was not suggesting to go listen to some quack, but for you to see video of what the parks etc look like this time of year. Go ahead and look at some live webcams over there if you don’t like YouTube.

 

[L4Dawg]

I had read the article long before you posted it. And you know what I meant with the YouTube videos. I was not suggesting to go listen to some quack, but for you to see video of what the parks etc look like this time of year. Go ahead and look at some live webcams over there if you don’t like YouTube.

Its outdoors and I bet its not drunken revelry for the most part. Also, I dabble in photography. I don't trust cameras to give the feel of how crowded something is because I know the tricks on how to manipulate that sort of thing. Oh by the way, that article is dated TODAY. I guess you got up early to catch it.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

If the goal is comparison, charts like this are only useful if we have a normalized data source with consistent inputs and measurement styles that consider all pertinent data. We don't even have that within the US, hence all the arguments and the ability for anyone to find "data" that suits their opinion. Not dumping on you, specifically, just noting that there is little comparative value without knowing a lot about the data and the events that drove the data.

 

[Captain Ron]

Oh well if it's on Youtube then that means it's the gold standard. Read the last article I posted.

And for that matter, does anybody doubt the political implications “if” Sweden has reached her immunity? Think about all the politicians, media etc that are completely vested in the lockdown, SIP narrative. If it turns out Sweden is fully open in a month, think about all the backtracking that will have to take place.

That is why I read just about every article on the subject, but also realize a spin job and what point they are trying to get me to believe. Then I ask, does the hard data (not anecdotal) back up what they are saying.

 

[Captain Ron]

Its outdoors and I bet its not drunken revelry for the most part. Also, I dabble in photography. I don't trust cameras to give the feel of how crowded something is because I know the tricks on how to manipulate that sort of thing. Oh by the way, that article is dated TODAY. I guess you got up early to catch it.

I live in Eastern time zone.. you? But the “cautionary tale” article was not from today.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

Think most all of those countries' cases are flat too, but not sure why you used deaths pertaining to herd immunity. Not sure about all those countries, did they stay open like Sweden?

Too many charts to add the deaths and cases... But I will add a few, in a minute... They all look like Sweden, actually better on cases. And no, they did not act like Sweden, they all had significant lockdowns.

ETA: Here are charts of daily cases and population

Sweden Pop 10 million = 34.9 cases/mn
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Germany Pop 84 million = 4.1 cases/mn
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France Pop 65 million = 8.6 cases/mn
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Netherlands Pop 17 million = 3.8 cases/mn
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Switzerland Pop 9 million = 10.3 cases/mn
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Denmark Pop 7 million = 3.6 cases/mn
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Finland Pop 6 million = 0.8 cases/mn
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Norway Pop 5 million = 1.6 cases/mn
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Ireland Pop 5 million = 4.0 cases/mn
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My take is if Sweden is close to herd immunity, the others are basically there. Especially Norway and Finland who have about 3% of Sweden's 7 day average case count, combined.

Nobody is close to herd immunity yet. My best hypothesis is the virus doesn't spread very well in open air. In Europe in the summer it's outside all of the time, restaurants are all open air (doors-windows open) as well to enjoy the weather.

On the other hand, it seems to be spreading like a ***** inside in recirculating air. Whether it's AC or Heat. Restaurants, planes cruise ships, whatever...

Everywhere in the northern hemisphere that is having increase case counts/deaths is hot... Southern US, Mexico, India, Israel, Iraq, Iran, Indonesia.... It makes too much logic to not be the case.

Again, I am not saying who is right or wrong yet. Sweden is definitely closer than it's neighbors to herd immunity, but they aren't anywhere near places like that neighborhood in NYC. If no vaccine works and it take 60-80% infection to get to herd immunity, maybe being closer is a good thing. Too soon to tell.

This thing is contagious. Especially indoors with dry recirculating air. Like every other respiratory virus, it's better to get it in the summer because your immune system is stronger and the viral burden/initial dose is likely to be lower. This is probably the case with most respiratory viruses... They don't go away in the summer and hatch out of mushrooms in the fall... They slowly get passed around and most people don't notice they have it or chalk it up to allergies.

 

[dorndawg]

Fair enough, but let's say ours is 10% high and everyone else is 10% low - that's still a big delta

 

[Slippery Pete]

This info from FL is interesting.

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/07/14/florida-media-discover-widespread-false-reports-of-positive-covid-tests-massive-data-disparities-video-and-report/

 

[L4Dawg]

I live in Eastern time zone.. you? But the “cautionary tale” article was not from today.

That's not the last one I posted.

 

[L4Dawg]

And for that matter, does anybody doubt the political implications “if” Sweden has reached her immunity? Think about all the politicians, media etc that are completely vested in the lockdown, SIP narrative. If it turns out Sweden is fully open in a month, think about all the backtracking that will have to take place.

That is why I read just about every article on the subject, but also realize a spin job and what point they are trying to get me to believe. Then I ask, does the hard data (not anecdotal) back up what they are saying.

Well, their death rate is higher than ours. It's WAY higher than their other Nordic neighbors. Their economy is taking a similar hit. The policy they took is under an official government investigation. It sounds like a rousing success to me.

 

[AtlantaDawg]

Note that the George Floyd protests (nation-wide looting and rioting) started in late May. With a 5-10 day incubation, and some delay in securing test results, it may explain some of the rise. I am also convinced that several test labs are way over-reporting.

Georgia and Florida re-opened in late April. There appears to be no rise in cases two weeks afterward.

The articles I read say that 17% infection rate with a 70%+ of the population who are not impacted by COVID will ensure that we reach Herd Immunity. I know three people who were infected here in Georgia over the past 4-5 weeks. Three of them had minor symptoms, one had 105 fever for several days, but recovered in 3 weeks (she was almost 60).

We need to reopen and stay open. If you are afraid, shelter at home. If you are not, you have the freedom to try and save your business (and likely your life savings).

 

[Irondawg]

I just have to wonder if Europe is really loving much different than we are and why there is such a difference is positive case trends.

In theory it should not be that dramatic a difference

 

[greenbean.sixpack]

This time of year most of them are on vacation at their county houses as well. The schools are finally closed and workplaces that aren't closed are short staffed. Windows are open everywhere because the weather is usually very nice. So basically they are socially distanced and mostly in places that are well ventilated with fresh air. My guess is the normal circumstances in the summer are much better there right now than ours were under our shutdowns when it comes to slowing transmission.

I've been to Europe a couple of times in the last five years, the longest period i have stayed is two consecutive weeks. Most middle class people do not have summer homes, in fact many live in cramped apartments or in houses that are usually smaller than middle class US homes.

 

[Dawgology]

This info from FL is interesting.

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/07/14/florida-media-discover-widespread-false-reports-of-positive-covid-tests-massive-data-disparities-video-and-report/

And folks wonder why this virus isn't being taken seriously. You can't pull **** like this and then expect to be respected and trusted. Stuff like this absolutely discredits anything you are trying to do to reduce Covid numbers through social distancing and masks.

 

[CreekFishin]

Probably so. At least the French.

I just have to wonder if Europe is really loving much different than we are and why there is such a difference is positive case trends.

In theory it should not be that dramatic a difference

nm

 

[ckDOG]

Clickbait. Those factors influenced positivity 0.1%

This info from FL is interesting.

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/07/14/florida-media-discover-widespread-false-reports-of-positive-covid-tests-massive-data-disparities-video-and-report/

Massive is not 0.1%. These articles exist for clicks and for people to feel persecuted or to rationalize a naysayer attitude. Pull the data and scrub it. You will find anomalies for small labs and a handfull of labs where I'd question their input. There are 1,100 labs. The outliers are noise in a manual aggregation process. It doesn't significantly influence positives or positivity rates to a point where users of the stats would make different decisions.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

Yes, one would call that statistically significant.

 

[johnson86-1]

I just have to wonder if Europe is really loving much different than we are and why there is such a difference is positive case trends.

In theory it should not be that dramatic a difference

There is a huge difference in AC usage. They have much milder weather compared to the US and they also tolerate a little more heat when AC is available.

I still think at the end you're going to see that government policy has much less impact than people are hoping. You can make things worse by doing things like cutting subway and bus routes and mandating that nursing homes take infected people, but at the end of the day, I bet we find out nobody moved the needle that much compared to drivers like climate/weather.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

I just have to wonder if Europe is really loving much different than we are and why there is such a difference is positive case trends.

In theory it should not be that dramatic a difference

It's the AC recirculating air homie. Europe is all open air in the summer. Having lived there twice, I can tell you it's all about the outside air in the summer.

We have 6 times the annual AC sales in the US vs Europe. Russia has 40% of the AC's in Europe and is the biggest hit spot.

Even in the US, I bet if we look at Washington and Oregon the cases are minimal compared to southern states... Half the places up there don't have AC.


But, what goes around comes around. Watch northern cooler climates have big spikes much earlier than the south in the winter.

 

[L4Dawg]

It's the AC recirculating air homie. Europe is all open air in the summer. Having lived there twice, I can tell you it's all about the outside air in the summer.

We have 6 times the annual AC sales in the US vs Europe. Russia has 40% of the AC's in Europe and is the biggest hit spot.

Even in the US, I bet if we look at Washington and Oregon the cases are minimal compared to southern states... Half the places up there don't have AC.


But, what goes around comes around. Watch northern cooler climates have big spikes much earlier than the south in the winter.

Yep, it's one of the best things about being in Europe in the summer, esp in the north and the UK. It's cool by our standards and everything is outside.

 

[johnson86-1]

Yep, it's one of the best things about being in Europe in the summer, esp in the north and the UK. It's cool by our standards and everything is outside.

Sucks when it actually gets hot though. Lots of places either don't have AC or if they do, they keep it something approaching 85 degrees, which is ok if you're not hot to begin with and you have a fan, but when you're trying to sleep or after you've already gotten hot and sweaty, doesn't really cool you down comfortably, or at least not by our standards.