the latest US death rate is the lowest it's been since MARCH 25! It is 0.73 per million people (242 total) for July 5 according to https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus. Yes, cases are rising and one death is too many, but I am thankful the death rate is going in a positive direction (down) and it has been for some time. It seems like doctors are figuring out how to better treat people who become ill and/or the virus is milder. How much longer can this go on until we decide this is just like any other illness? Especially with remdesivir, dexmethasone, and dare I say hydroxychloroquine available as treatments. Sigh...longing for some sense of normalcy. I guess I need to go to Destin.
Some good coronavirus news...
- Thread starter TwoDawgs
- Start date
Cases are up because testing is WAAYYY up. No **** confirmed cases are up. I’m not sure why anyone is surprised by that when we are testing 3x as much as we were a month ago. Meanwhile, hospitalization is pretty steady, ICUs still have plenty of capacity, and the death rate is plummeting.
But I’m sure Dan Wolken and others will be out with fresh panic articles saying there’s no way college football can be played this fall.
But I’m sure Dan Wolken and others will be out with fresh panic articles saying there’s no way college football can be played this fall.
It’s interesting - even as hospitalization rates tick up, death rates have trended down. I’m guessing that’s due to some combination of the following:
A) High risk patients protecting themselves better
B) Advancing therapies
A) High risk patients protecting themselves better
B) Advancing therapies
A doctor friend of mine speculates that it's because the virus has weakened substantially and many of the cases are milder now.
I saw a doctor/expert on one of the news shows about a month ago that he was seeing ample evidence that as the virus was replicating it was becoming noticeably weaker.
There is speculation among doctors now that the virus is becoming more contagious but less lethal. The numbers seem to add merit to that school of thought.
I guess let's see what the next couple of weeks look like, I do find it interesting that for most of June the national narrative was largely about something other than COVID and then you saw a spike in cases. Now that the protesting (and in some cases rioting) has become much less prominent and the narrative has shifted back to COVID again, I'm wondering if you might see people be more cautious again and the case numbers start to slow down.
May was a good month in my opinion, June was a bad month. We really need July to be another good month, the next few weeks are huge.
It’s a much weaker strain as far as being deadly but more contagious (protein spikes are different). It’s been circulating for months and has become the dominant strain in the US. G614
ICU capacity is a little strained in central Mississippi. Can't speak for south and north Mississippi, but the Jackson metro area is stressed in some of the ICU's. Wife, both my children and my daughter in law are all in healthcare - Baptist, St. Dom, UMMC and Merit Health. ICU is pretty packed right now and COVID is driving a lot of it. Wife got an email Friday saying St. Dom only had 1 ICU bed left open as of 3pm. But yet, death rates are down because we're doing a better job of treating it and it does appear to be weakening somewhat with this current strain - all good news. But this current surge is definitely causing some problems at the hospitals. Don't be fooled into thinking otherwise. Also, a significant number of state legislators have tested positive in the last 24 hours from all the flag work that was done last week at the capital .
Yep. There is some panic going on right now within the State Health Department. They're worried. My son who is a nurse has worked 29 of the last 31 days.
This just isn’t true. Testing is up, but so are cases and the positive rate. Florida alone reported 10,000+ new cases on Sunday.
But I will say the good news is that whatever is going on, be it the virus changing or our treatments becoming more effective, it is fantastic.
Also, we won’t have football this fall. The sooner people come to terms with that, the easier it will be on everyone.
I think the better treatments are not only leading to the death rate falling, but also the increase in ICU usage. If folks aren’t dying,.. they’re liking hanging out in the ICU longer while they recover.
Have a friend who was tested earlier in the week. Since we were exposed before we should isolate we played tennis together yesterday (Were not around any other couples or people). He got the call during the match. Call came in mid set. Negative. Broke his wrist doing a cartwheel to celebrate. 2020 don’t quit. And he’s a moron.
No clue. Maybe thereS a delay in the hospital results they’re reporting. I’ve personally been present in 2 meetings with them as a passive by stander Who’s agency is affected by all this (I’m a state employee) and I can tell you they’re extremely concerned. And that’s putting it lightly.
I don’t know why the old Baptist Hospital Building in Oxford wasn’t transformed into a Covid ICU facility.... it’s basically sitting there empty and the building is in very good shape.
The problem is that we are looking at these stats on a national level, instead of focusing a bit more locally to see what is actually happening.
In the nations hotspots, like CA, TX, AZ and FL, deaths are up. These places are testing more, but they are also seeing a much higher percentage of tests coming back positive, which indicates the virus is spreading. They are reaching critical hospitalization numbers in parts of their states; Houston, Tampa...Arizona is setting daily records for numbers of people with Covid in their ICUs and on ventilators.
Once the virus flares up in specific location, it can get out of control rather quickly. National death numbers are down because New York's death rate has plummeted along with earlier hotspots. That is not of much comfort to people on ventilators in other states.
This is really frustrating....Europe has this thing under control and we are still pretending there's nothing we can do about it.
In the nations hotspots, like CA, TX, AZ and FL, deaths are up. These places are testing more, but they are also seeing a much higher percentage of tests coming back positive, which indicates the virus is spreading. They are reaching critical hospitalization numbers in parts of their states; Houston, Tampa...Arizona is setting daily records for numbers of people with Covid in their ICUs and on ventilators.
Once the virus flares up in specific location, it can get out of control rather quickly. National death numbers are down because New York's death rate has plummeted along with earlier hotspots. That is not of much comfort to people on ventilators in other states.
This is really frustrating....Europe has this thing under control and we are still pretending there's nothing we can do about it.
My older brother should be dead but he now at home doing well. They are learning how to treat the sick. That's going a long way to bringing the death rate down.
Dr Dobbs said a few days ago. It usually takes 1-2 weeks from somebody being hospitalized with covid to end up in ICU. He was concerned that the increase in hospitalizations over the last week would increase the demand for ICU and ventilators in the coming weeks.
I’m not up on my EU laws but if they are closer to South Korea and Japan’s governance then one reason they may have it under better control is they don’t have the bill of rights that we have, for better or worse. I know in Japan and South Korea they were able to take contact tracing to a level that our privacy rights would never allow. To quote Barney Fife that made it much easier to “nip it in the bud.”
Heard one of the experts say this morning that contact tracing is showing most of the spread is coming from in-home family events...
Your friend has my luck. Many years ago I took a golf lesson and the pro got me hitting the ball better than ever. Right after the lesson I rode off on the back of a golf cart with a couple of buddies to play a few holes. I fell off the cart and broke a wrist. No golf all Summer for me.
So, you're saying that people cannot just voluntatily do the right thing for public health. Wear masks, wash your hands, avoid close contact with people, stay home if you feel sick. Infection numbers drop, then it is much easier to isolate known cases and contact trace. Then we get to watch college football.
Hospitalizations are going up in GA. Deaths tend to trail the hospitalizations by a few weeks, but lets hope it has gotten weaker.
I would think the rate of positive tests is up because we’re past the spring allergy season. There were probably a lot of people getting needlessly tested March - May because they felt sick when it was really nothing other than allergies or a regular cold. I even questioned if I may have had it a couple of times when I felt sick (antibody test from when I donated blood says no).
Now we’re at a normally healthy time of the year. I wonder if this also is affecting the severity. I’d guess people are out exercising more, kids have all been out of school for months, so people are as healthy as ever and not as many small colds & viruses going around. If you get COVID now, your immune system maybe is in better shape to fight it??
I said a few weeks back that this isn’t going away in the US. Right or wrong - when we decided to open things back up at the end of April we basically guaranteed a huge amount of the population would eventually get it, assuming a vaccine isn’t developed soon.
Now we’re at a normally healthy time of the year. I wonder if this also is affecting the severity. I’d guess people are out exercising more, kids have all been out of school for months, so people are as healthy as ever and not as many small colds & viruses going around. If you get COVID now, your immune system maybe is in better shape to fight it??
I said a few weeks back that this isn’t going away in the US. Right or wrong - when we decided to open things back up at the end of April we basically guaranteed a huge amount of the population would eventually get it, assuming a vaccine isn’t developed soon.
Maybe something there but the numbers of tests administered is way up in addition to the rate. We’re testing a lot more people and the number of those people who are positive is also way up.
There is no solid evidence it has got weaker. There are several reports of Dr. XYZ saying in his opinion it has. That is NOT evidence. If it was then bigfoot exists.
Well that is wrong. Viruses do not work that way.
Again, doctors are not epidemiologist.
Unless that is, your doctor is in there studying day to day changes in the virus. If he is not, then this is conjecture.
The virus ran it's course through most of the most vulnerable communities (elderly) already in large part bc the gov't did a poor job of protecting them.
Goldman Sachs had a good piece out when virus hadn't even really hit the US yet. It said lots of deaths are folks that would have died within the next couple of years anyway from other underlying health conditions and health complications. Basically the ones who get the virus will have their deaths moved up by as much as a few years. It's sad but it's a reality.
Now we have learned how to protect elderly and they are protecting themselves better. Immune systems in general also function better in the warmer months.
Fact is this virus is probably likely to always be around, but with vaccines, therapies/treatments and folks being educated will prevent the virus from becoming what has been for us, but I do think the virus will likely always be around in the future to a degree. Vaccine is key, but it's likely to be 50-60% effective at best, but that'll be enough to not have enormous outbreaks like we're having now coupled with folks becoming immune who have already had it.
Goldman Sachs had a good piece out when virus hadn't even really hit the US yet. It said lots of deaths are folks that would have died within the next couple of years anyway from other underlying health conditions and health complications. Basically the ones who get the virus will have their deaths moved up by as much as a few years. It's sad but it's a reality.
Now we have learned how to protect elderly and they are protecting themselves better. Immune systems in general also function better in the warmer months.
Fact is this virus is probably likely to always be around, but with vaccines, therapies/treatments and folks being educated will prevent the virus from becoming what has been for us, but I do think the virus will likely always be around in the future to a degree. Vaccine is key, but it's likely to be 50-60% effective at best, but that'll be enough to not have enormous outbreaks like we're having now coupled with folks becoming immune who have already had it.
I’ve never heard anyone with a Ph.D say in their opinion that Bigfoot exists. These aren’t John Q Publics with GED’s or ppl with a couple community college classes under their belts saying they believe it’s getting weaker. These are experts looking at data. Heaven forbid it get weaker, what would you then have to talk about?
There has been over a 90% reduction in daily deaths since the peak in April. No evidence though.
Not arguing what you’re saying, but this Thursday will mark four full weeks since cases began to spike again on June 12th. During that time, we’re now hitting new case rates that are double what we saw in April, yet death numbers continue to show zero signs of stopping their descent.
I say that to ask... if it’s not a weaker strain, is it better treatments? Better isolation of those that would have been hit harder like the elderly? Improved hospital capacity? I’m legit just trying to understand the lack of correlation between new cases and death rates since it rarely even seems to be a topic of conversation on the news.
I say that to ask... if it’s not a weaker strain, is it better treatments? Better isolation of those that would have been hit harder like the elderly? Improved hospital capacity? I’m legit just trying to understand the lack of correlation between new cases and death rates since it rarely even seems to be a topic of conversation on the news.
How dare he pass off conjecture as speculation!!!! Somebody should talk to his manager!!!
Likely a combination of those. I think people are getting diagnosed much sooner and the treatments are becoming better. And a lot of the elderly/compromised people in my circle are being much more careful with how and when they are getting out and their families that are getting out are being much less cavalier with their visits.
I was thinking the same thing. Not to be crass, but, if you die, you're not a strain on the healthcare system anymore. Overall, hospitalizations have gone up pretty significantly in Mississippi. Are people being admitted to the hospital and living with Covid who would have otherwise died?
We had to open up another COVID floor at my hospital last week. We have the physical room, but the staffing is a big issue. We've had people quit rather than float to work on the Covid unit. Some people will simply retire of it gets too bad. It's also going to bankrupt these hospitals in Mississippi. We already have a fragile healthcare infrastructure as it is in this state.