If you see anyone calling it the "phony jobs report." They are comparing it to the Department of Labor numbers, which are more accurate. We have always used the BLS nonfarm payrolls, but it's a phone survey (like an election poll.) It has done well, but now it's horrible because there are a thousand forms of unemployment.
The Department of Labor is tracking actual claims. Both initial and continuing. Continuing is what matters, it's how you adjust for new filers this week vs people rehired. I have always just looked at the chart above because it was easy.
Today I actually downloaded the full DOL report and I see why people are up in arms... I don't think there is anything nefarious going on, but the BLS nonfarm payroll is completely misleading. They are only accounting for regular employees. So in a historical perspective, that's where all the unemployment benefits have been.
Well in the cares act, they created Pandemic Unemployment Assistance or PUA. It is for 1099 workers that were laid off. From Uber drivers to computer programmers, they are now eligible for unemployment unlike in the past. It turns out, a shitload of 1099 workers are out of work, drawing unemployment, and not being counted. By shitload, I mean 12 million people.
The PUA us new to April of 2020 so I don't think there is anything nefarious going on to cook the books by the BLS, but their report suggests 17.5 million are unemployed, but the reality is 31 million. Crazy that this is not being more publicized.
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Here's the full report.
https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
