NFL plans to start on 9/10

[fishwater99]

https://www.nola.com/sports/saints/article_ccc575de-8d40-11ea-8fcd-536f9a4cd125.html

Empty stadiums, neutral sites and no bye weeks are among several alternatives being discussed.

 

[ronpolk]

I’m certainly hoping they play this year and in front of fans. It’ll be interesting to see though. If the NFL does not play in front of fans at some point this year I think it’s reasonable to assume nothing is normal until we have a vaccine.

 

[jethreauxdawg]

A vaccine as good as the flu vaccine?

I’m certainly hoping they play this year and in front of fans. It’ll be interesting to see though. If the NFL does not play in front of fans at some point this year I think it’s reasonable to assume nothing is normal until we have a vaccine.

The flu vaccine only helps 1/60 people that get the shot. But I’m with you. I think as soon as people hear there is a vaccine available, they’ll all decide it’s ok to return to normal, although there really won’t be much difference. And large percentage of people won’t get the vaccine anyway, but they’ll feel safe.

 

[RocketDawg]

]The flu vaccine only helps 1/60 people that get the shot.[/B] But I’m with you. I think as soon as people hear there is a vaccine available, they’ll all decide it’s ok to return to normal, although there really won’t be much difference. And large percentage of people won’t get the vaccine anyway, but they’ll feel safe.

Can you cite a source for that statistic?

 

[jethreauxdawg]

I’ll try to find it. Friend of mine sells pharma. He declines it every year because “what’s the point” and constantly references the 1/60 average. Feel free to correct me. Raiderdawg can probably set us straight.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

Your friend may be a pot dealer... 1/60... I think the flu vaccine might make your peen grow an inch or two 1 out of 60.

Thanks for being open minded about letting someone cite a different source.

https://www.aafp.org/news/health-of-the-public/20200226interimfluve.html

 

[patdog]

I’ll try to find it.

Good luck with that.

 

[jethreauxdawg]

Clarification: NNT, number to treat, is 60. 60 people have to get the vaccine to prevent 1 case.

 

[Herbert Nenninger]

If you extrapolate that out to the >300,000,000 million people in the US, that’s more than 5,000,000 fewer cases. I would say that’s a worthwhile vaccine. Bet that’s a lot better than the current “number needed to lock down” statistics we’re having to rely on.

 

[johnson86-1]

I’ll try to find it. Friend of mine sells pharma. He declines it every year because “what’s the point” and constantly references the 1/60 average. Feel free to correct me. Raiderdawg can probably set us straight.

I think your friend is botching his risk management. In one year, he's right that it doesn't change the odds that much. Over a couple of decades, it does. If having the flu once or twice sounds better to you than getting 20 flu shots, then skipping the flu shot is probably the right call. But to me, it takes basically no time and doesn't really hurt, where as a flu is typically going to make you feel like **** for a few days and maybe sluggish another few days if you don't have the flu shot. If you avoid one case, seems like it's a pretty decent deal. If you really hate shots or f

 

[jethreauxdawg]

I’m with ya. I argue the same point. I don’t see a downside to the flu shot, even if the upside is very minimal. Of course maybe half of adults at best get it and less than that of kids.

 

[jethreauxdawg]

How nnt is calculated:
Just an example, not actual numbers from any drug.
Trial size 1000 people in each group
One group given a Placebo shot- 30 people get infections
One group given a Drug - 12 people get infections

Placebo had 3% event rate
Drug had 1.2% event rate
So the absolute risk reduction (ARR) is 3-1.2=1.8%

NNT = 1/ARR (ARR=.018 )
NNT = 55.56

So in this example you would need to treat at least 56 people to statistically prevent one infection.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

How nnt is calculated:
Just an example, not actual numbers from any drug.
Trial size 1000 people in each group
One group given a Placebo shot- 30 people get infections
One group given a Drug - 12 people get infections

Placebo had 3% event rate
Drug had 1.2% event rate
So the absolute risk reduction (ARR) is 3-1.2=1.8%

NNT = 1/ARR (ARR=.018 )
NNT = 55.56

So in this example you would need to treat at least 56 people to statistically prevent one infection.

That is correct. The flu is not terribly contagious and we have a lot of antibodies as a population. Using your math in a population of 330 million roughly 10 million would get the flu without the vaccine. Only 4 million would get it with the vaccine. So 60% less. Also, most vaccinate subjects that get the flu will have milder symptoms and recover quicker.

As your buddy says, it probably won't matter to him, but it will matter to someone. Kind of like homeowners insurance. Only one out of 60 will have a fire or tornado wipe them out, but we all participate in the shared risk, just in case we are the unlucky ones.