If you aren't sober, this should help you get there...
- Thread starter Xenomorph
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Economist Lawrence Summers has warned that the U.S. financial system may collapse because of cascading defaults. Approximately 25% of U.S. renters did not pay their landlords and 23% of Americans did not make their mortgage payment in April. When people don’t pay their creditors, creditors in turn cannot pay their creditors. For comparison, a 28% mortgage default rate contributed to the 2008 financial collapse.
Joseph Stiglitz recently explained that the current pandemic will affect the developing world more severely than it has developed countries. It might lead to mass migration problems that could dwarf the dislocations of the last six years out of Africa and the Middle East.
Joseph Stiglitz recently explained that the current pandemic will affect the developing world more severely than it has developed countries. It might lead to mass migration problems that could dwarf the dislocations of the last six years out of Africa and the Middle East.
They are changed cause we are all told to stay in our homes. Right or wrong did I miss that part too? I know there are many 6 packers more intelligent than me but what am I missing?
The stoplight analogy is pretty spot on. We aren't just going to turn the key and the global economy cuts back on.
The oilfield is a feast or famine industry. It has been shot and left for dead too many times to count since the oil crisis of the 1970's. OPEC had everybody by the gonads then. Remember that in the 1990's the big news was that reservoirs were drying up and what new oil left to get was deep underwater and could run upwards of $200/bbl to get out. Then the shortages of the new century that eventually pushed oil to $150/bbl. We were told we would never see gasoline under $4/gal again. Then.............fracking. And everything shifted seismically again in the other direction. Oil production costs are pretty much fixed for everybody that produces it. Granted some are a lot lower than others (See the Saudi's) not even the Russians can produce it as cheaply as the Saudi's.
There is no doubt this is bad and will get worse. For a while. US producers may not have seen things this bad but they have a lot of experience in bad situations. To the writer's point that it has never been this bad, OK. No doubt there's a lot of heartache ahead for US companies. A lot of them operate off borrowed money and very few lay any cash back to carry them through extended bad times. We're not talking about the Exxon's or BP's. As always it's the smaller companies that take the hardest lick. But the oilfield in this country has always bounced back. It will from this too. And a guy with 36 years experience should know that. He's right on all counts, for now. But I wouldn't start digging a hole to bury the US oil folks just yet.
There is no doubt this is bad and will get worse. For a while. US producers may not have seen things this bad but they have a lot of experience in bad situations. To the writer's point that it has never been this bad, OK. No doubt there's a lot of heartache ahead for US companies. A lot of them operate off borrowed money and very few lay any cash back to carry them through extended bad times. We're not talking about the Exxon's or BP's. As always it's the smaller companies that take the hardest lick. But the oilfield in this country has always bounced back. It will from this too. And a guy with 36 years experience should know that. He's right on all counts, for now. But I wouldn't start digging a hole to bury the US oil folks just yet.
Maybe not.
This market is so contrary right now I expect Powell to roll out in a minute or here and say he is going to raise rates to 10%, quit printing money, and then watch the s&p jump up to 4000...
I don't understand why he's saying the entire economy will crash due to oil. The price of oil is down, so that means much of the economy will be that much better, because fuel runs the economy. Now obviously I'm talking about a typical pandemic-free economy. But it seems like to me once people start driving and flying again, we'll start using fuel again. There's no shortage or anything.
I get that it's bad for producers and people who profit from moving oil around, and that has a trickle effect, but what's the difference in them and everyone else? Everybody is suffering right now, not just oil.
I get that it's bad for producers and people who profit from moving oil around, and that has a trickle effect, but what's the difference in them and everyone else? Everybody is suffering right now, not just oil.
This is what stuck out to me. But I would like to hear more thoughts on it also. I learn a lot from the opinions here.
Energy is the Economy
Gross domestic product (GDP) is proportional to oil consumption (Figure 4). That’s because oil is the economy. Every aspect of production and use of goods and services requires burning fossil energy. There are approximately 4.5 years of human labor in a barrel of oil (N. J. Hagens, personal communication and The Oil Drum). No other energy source comes close to that level of energy density.
Energy is the Economy
Gross domestic product (GDP) is proportional to oil consumption (Figure 4). That’s because oil is the economy. Every aspect of production and use of goods and services requires burning fossil energy. There are approximately 4.5 years of human labor in a barrel of oil (N. J. Hagens, personal communication and The Oil Drum). No other energy source comes close to that level of energy density.
The Arabs and Russians know exactly what they're doing. COVID-19 just gives them cover. This was long-planned
I have a weird take on this. Wouldn't it be wise to conserve our oil over here and then buy oil from other countries? What happens when they run out? We will still have ours. Yeah they'll be rich but we will have the oil.
Yea, that guy is full of it. He's potentially correct that things are going to be bad, but for the wrong reasons.
Oil being the economy is sort of right, be he takes the wrong lesson from it. Oil being cheap is good for the economy because it fuels so much of it. to the extent lack of gasoline demand means diesel is more expensive b/c gasoline turns into more or less a byproduct than an additional revenue stream from creating diesel, that's of course bad for diesel dependent portions of the economy, which is a huge part of it. But that gasoline is a valuable energy source and the demand isn't going to disappear, and the cheaper it gets, the more demand there will be.
It’s def a pessimistic article. The author even admits it. Naturally hearing the more optimistic counter-views are more comforting.
Energy is a reflection of demand for basically anything
Can't satisfy demand without the oil. Don't need oil without the demand. Oil will be strong again, but certainly after a round of healthy balance sheets buying out the over leveraged firms that can't ride out the blip in demand. There will be kicking and screaming, but it will all sort itself out over time as we fire everything else back up. The reserves will need to be drilled for. The assets that exist will be used. It'll be fine, but some owners will get burned. It's why the rewards are so high in that industry. Boom. Bust. Repeat.
Can't satisfy demand without the oil. Don't need oil without the demand. Oil will be strong again, but certainly after a round of healthy balance sheets buying out the over leveraged firms that can't ride out the blip in demand. There will be kicking and screaming, but it will all sort itself out over time as we fire everything else back up. The reserves will need to be drilled for. The assets that exist will be used. It'll be fine, but some owners will get burned. It's why the rewards are so high in that industry. Boom. Bust. Repeat.
I disagree. Saudi Arabia wants no part of a world where the United States doesn't have their back. Now Russia on the other hand...
I want to remodel my home, buy a 4 wheeler, and a zero turn mower. Can’t do that until people i don’t know are forced to work in unsafe conditions before steps are completed to reduce risk. We need to kick start this economy back up. What’s a few hundred thousand deaths? I need my stuff. When it’s your time it’s your time. Right?
Great weird take. Except for the fact that we don’t get to set world prices for oil. And when they drive down futures prices to the point that it costs way more to produce than they can get selling it, well...you get what we have now. Which is wells get shut in. Research what it means to shut in a well
How about keep your business open, be able to pay rent or mortgage, buy food for your family and have health insurance? You know all that stupid stuff.
Stopped reading at “mitigating climate change”.
Anybody got any news fit to read? Sports news maybe.
On the bright side, David Venables on QVC will be able to sell his Lock & Lock Plastic Storage containers a lot cheaper.****
And I may be able to get the other half of our church parking lot asphalt paved for half of what we paid for the first half done back in March.****
Anybody got any news fit to read? Sports news maybe.
On the bright side, David Venables on QVC will be able to sell his Lock & Lock Plastic Storage containers a lot cheaper.****
And I may be able to get the other half of our church parking lot asphalt paved for half of what we paid for the first half done back in March.****
That's impressive that you are able to sit at home and live entirely off the grid and not eat any food provided by anybody else, or electricity provided by anybody else, or water provided by anybody else. Talk about planning ahead to be able to do that for over a month. And it's a good thing you did b/c otherwise you'd be a huge 17ing hypoccrite *** hole if you wanted to sit on your *** and still have food, water, and electricity provided by other people that have to go to work to provide it.
I want to sit at home, collect a government check until the check isn’t worth the toilet paper that is unavailable to wipe my *** with, destroy the economy and turn us into a 3rd world country, tell everyone like campshelbydog that’s going to Destin this weekend they are a 17’ing piece of **** for not sitting at home for a virus that over 99 % of people survive, and eat my 17’ing food that I’m able to eat because I’m either essential or on the government teet.
Even before COVID, approximately 20% of renters did not pay their landlords on time, so keep that in mind.
I’m not making this statement without skin in the game. My company is deemed essential. I’m not forcing any of my workers to do anything they feel unsafe. My numbers for March were down 50%. My April numbers are down 80%. I’ve received no help in government loans. Another month and I’ll probably lose my business and be left with a crippling amount of debt. Its just a matter of using common sense to get people back in the work place instead of just opening the flood gates. Most businesses aren’t prepared.
I personally know more people who have lost their job than ones who have contracted Covid. This is not saying I am insensitive to the ones who have lost loved ones or are currently battling the sickness. I feel for those affected by this.
I said a month ago that this would ruin a lot people economically and I am seeing it within my circle already. It’s very sad to see. There are some desperate people out there and it’s growing. These are the people I see wanting to get back to work. And I get it.
I said a month ago that this would ruin a lot people economically and I am seeing it within my circle already. It’s very sad to see. There are some desperate people out there and it’s growing. These are the people I see wanting to get back to work. And I get it.
Why didn’t you apply for PPP? Or, you just haven’t received it yet?
If you didn’t apply, I would do that this afternoon.
If you didn’t apply, I would do that this afternoon.
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