or lose it all. So far they have been better than expected which is likely an indication of how strong Q1 was going to be. Is this really not a dead cat bounce? I can't believe we won't test new lows in the next few weeks. All this free fed money is not good for us in the long run - how will business be changed in the long run if there is no downside risk?
It's earnings week - time to make millions
- Thread starter Apoplectic_Objurgator
- Start date
It is weird. There was an episode of "The Simpsons" where the teacher Edna Krabappel is passing out tests to the students and she says, "Remember class the Worse you do on these Standardized Tests the more FUNDING our school gets, so go ahead and knock yourselves out."
That mentality has sorta been the Stock Market in 2020 . The more bad news and poor earnings that comes out, the higher the Stock Market rally goes because they all just assume they'll be getting TONS of freshly printed Bail Out money from The Federal Reserve. I'm with you, I think there is definitely a reckoning in the cards that is heading our way.
That mentality has sorta been the Stock Market in 2020 . The more bad news and poor earnings that comes out, the higher the Stock Market rally goes because they all just assume they'll be getting TONS of freshly printed Bail Out money from The Federal Reserve. I'm with you, I think there is definitely a reckoning in the cards that is heading our way.
I agree with your points but don’t you think the opening back up optimism is going to rally the market? The worst is behind us virus wise
The worst is probably not behind us. The worst of government actions and of fear may be behind us, but we’re going to be dealing with the virus a while.
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Buckle up. Its going to be a roller coaster.
Should be one of the most interesting weeks for financial markets in modern history. You could realistically see quotes from this week in future textbooks.
Should be one of the most interesting weeks for financial markets in modern history. You could realistically see quotes from this week in future textbooks.
Agree. It's hysteria because:
1: There is no better place to put money since rates are garbage.
2: Everyone thinks when the lockdown ends, everything will go back to normal... It won't.
3. Nobody is giving guidance, because it's impossible to explain how ****** Q2 is going to look without torpedoing your own company.
I'm 80% cash right now in my trading account. I am holding on to some Apple, Target, and Amgen that I picked up last week until earnings are announced. Everything I normally trade has been working into a very narrow rising wedge, that mirrors the pattern of the S&P. (A rising wedge is a very bearish pattern.) The MACD is also turning back down for the first time since the bounce on the 4hr and 8hr charts.
I am on the sidelines until the market starts trending again... I would guess that trend is going to be downward and not to far away. 2450 for the S&P is really strong support and would be a number to watch. If it blows through, it's going to go all the way to the lows and possibly lower.
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1: There is no better place to put money since rates are garbage.
2: Everyone thinks when the lockdown ends, everything will go back to normal... It won't.
3. Nobody is giving guidance, because it's impossible to explain how ****** Q2 is going to look without torpedoing your own company.
I'm 80% cash right now in my trading account. I am holding on to some Apple, Target, and Amgen that I picked up last week until earnings are announced. Everything I normally trade has been working into a very narrow rising wedge, that mirrors the pattern of the S&P. (A rising wedge is a very bearish pattern.) The MACD is also turning back down for the first time since the bounce on the 4hr and 8hr charts.
I am on the sidelines until the market starts trending again... I would guess that trend is going to be downward and not to far away. 2450 for the S&P is really strong support and would be a number to watch. If it blows through, it's going to go all the way to the lows and possibly lower.
View attachment 15987
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Our Preident and CEO of my company believes we are in a 6 quarter recession.......this person is glass half full but it will be interesting
I'm 100% cash/cd's for the first time since the late 70's when I started saving/investing. I've never been a market timer but at my age I'm not willing to just ride it out as in the past. If we never get a major correction from here so be it....I will stay super conservative. But it's going to take a big pull back for me to put money back in the market.
Make sure to tune in to CNBC on Saturday May 2nd at 3:00pm CDT. You will get to hear Warren Buffet explain why he appears to be doing exactly what you are doing and what it's going to take for him to jump back into the fray....
Your strategy is sound. The upside risk is minimal at this point. The downside risk is massive.
Ahhh the old rising wedge formation haha. Wait for that volume to dry up and the bottom will drop out!!! lol not a fan of using that formation to predict the next move. 2,800 is a 50% retrancement on the Fibonacci as it relates to the bear market rally we've had. I'd use that if I had to use one. Right now I think you have FOMO pushing this market higher. Reality likely is what sends us back down.
2,450 is an area I'm watching too. I'm 19% cash right now after selling the past week. Just sitting here being patient.
I'm in the right names though for my longs: AMZN, SAM, PEP, CMG. I think my CVS and CRM will fine too.
2,450 is an area I'm watching too. I'm 19% cash right now after selling the past week. Just sitting here being patient.
I'm in the right names though for my longs: AMZN, SAM, PEP, CMG. I think my CVS and CRM will fine too.
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You talk a lot of ****. This is the earnings week that matters. The 5 biggest companies in the S&P report this week.
We started a Fantasy Trading League a few weeks ago. Come put your money where your mouth is...
https://invstr.onelink.me/49873515?pid=UI&c=PL&af_dp=invstr%3A%2F%2FLEAGUE_EXTERNAL_INVITE/c7eb4c56-11cf-47db-b257-240598ff7609&l=
Banks kick off the earnings season. They have the biggest gauge on the consumer usually. I'd argue this earnings season doesn't mean much at all. Nearly every company is withdrawing their forecasts.
The market is clearly looking ahead to a sharper recovery than I think is coming. I'm just messing with the OP bc I believe he told us many many times he was going to cash. Avoided a big crash, but now with markets not far off highs, it makes it tough to gauge when to get back in once you go 100% cash.
I'm good on the stock market league. I took a look at it. I did make a post with a list of stocks back on 3/19/20. You can look at those. They'd be on the list of what I'd buy in your league. That was my last buy recommendation as far as timing the market goes. For now, unless you're in a 401k doing regular pay roll deductions, I think you gotta be patient here.
The market is clearly looking ahead to a sharper recovery than I think is coming. I'm just messing with the OP bc I believe he told us many many times he was going to cash. Avoided a big crash, but now with markets not far off highs, it makes it tough to gauge when to get back in once you go 100% cash.
I'm good on the stock market league. I took a look at it. I did make a post with a list of stocks back on 3/19/20. You can look at those. They'd be on the list of what I'd buy in your league. That was my last buy recommendation as far as timing the market goes. For now, unless you're in a 401k doing regular pay roll deductions, I think you gotta be patient here.
I think whenever you jump back into the market, you don't go all in at once. Buy in some, and if the market comes down, buy a little more. As it keeps coming down, continue buying. Maybe set up 10-15% increments in which you buy until you can be in as much as you want to be. I was holding out some cash and made a nice little profit on some Carvana. It hit $22/share when it was at an all time high of around $115/share. When it started going back up, I bought in around $42/share and it hit $95/share today. I sold off 30% of my shares and if it hits $110/I'll sell off another 20%, then let the rest ride.
I’m relatively new to this, but I’m seeing this as a massive opportunity. Sure, this will be around for a while, maybe a very long while, but trillions are being pumped into the economy. I dumped my trump check into business that were undervalued and currently hiring and did some speculative buying as well. HD, LOW, CVX, EXP, V to name a few and I’ve done very well. I made some long plays in DAL, UAL, RCL and BA because at some point, Things will return to normal and I can be patient. It’s money Uncle Sam dropped on My head and I’m going to put it to work.
Dollar cost averaging is something I think is a great method, however the point was moving to ALL cash, which is almost never a good move.
I'm not in the all cash camp.
I'm not in the all cash camp.
Now is not the time to go long DAL, UAL, RCL in my opinion. There's better sectors to be in. You can come back to the travel/leisure stuff in a year from now....maybe. You're first list was solid though. Not familiar with EXP, but will depend on which segments of the economy is most exposed to since it's in construction.
I'd sell your LOW and go AMZN after a pull back.
I'd sell your LOW and go AMZN after a pull back.
I’m not either. I feel like worse of the large scale systemic risk is behind us.
That’s not to say I’m not concerned about April’s job report or July’s Q2 earning reports, but I don’t expect to see the Dow around 20 again. This looks like the ole Main Street vs. Wall Street issue. I think our equity markets are in way better shape than your local restaurant and coffee shop.
That’s not to say I’m not concerned about April’s job report or July’s Q2 earning reports, but I don’t expect to see the Dow around 20 again. This looks like the ole Main Street vs. Wall Street issue. I think our equity markets are in way better shape than your local restaurant and coffee shop.
It's a good market to trade and learn how to trade because of all the volatility. In general, the market is driven by expectations 6-12months down the road. I think stocks are projecting too quick of a recovery. I don't think it's this Q2 earnings season or the next employment report that'll do us in. Everyone knows they'll be historically bad. Earnings season has been here nearly two weeks and nearly every major company has withdrawn its forecast and rightly so, nonetheless the market has continued it's impressive rally.
Consensus 2020 S&P earnings forecast are approx. -19% right now. That might be too optimistic.
It may be at the tail end of the earnings season, or in the next few weeks when people realize there's a large section of the economy that won't be functioning anywhere remotely near what it was pre virus even when it "opens up."
I think the lows are in, but I wouldn't be surprised one bit if we tested the lows again. The time to buy has passed. If you've been trading and have some good gains, it's time to take some especially in travel/leisure stocks.
Have your shopping list ready for the next down turn. I know I do.
Consensus 2020 S&P earnings forecast are approx. -19% right now. That might be too optimistic.
It may be at the tail end of the earnings season, or in the next few weeks when people realize there's a large section of the economy that won't be functioning anywhere remotely near what it was pre virus even when it "opens up."
I think the lows are in, but I wouldn't be surprised one bit if we tested the lows again. The time to buy has passed. If you've been trading and have some good gains, it's time to take some especially in travel/leisure stocks.
Have your shopping list ready for the next down turn. I know I do.
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This is true. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. You should invest for your retirement in traditional mutual funds through a 401k or IRA before you have a brokerage account or "play money."
Whether you're messing around with a few hundred bucks or several thousand dollars, you should be funding retirement first with that money, then whatever you have left over you can "play" with.
Fund tax deferred and company sponsored retirement accounts as much as you can and regularly fund them through payroll deductions.
Whether you're messing around with a few hundred bucks or several thousand dollars, you should be funding retirement first with that money, then whatever you have left over you can "play" with.
Fund tax deferred and company sponsored retirement accounts as much as you can and regularly fund them through payroll deductions.
No doubt... Everything I have watched has turned upside down from what I thought. I am in the black since last week because of stop loss orders. If you are going to trade, make sure you learn how to use the different order types... They can prevent you from losing your positions...
The best analogy I have heard is once you learn how to use your stops and limits, it's like going to the casino and playing a $100 hand of blackjack under the conditions that you can double your money if you win the hand, but you only lose $5 if the dealer wins.
If I was up 15% for the week on long stocks this week I would probably set up some stop sell orders a little below current prices. If it continues to go up in this bullish rocket.. you win. If it pulls back, you will lock in your current win. You just got a years worth of returns in a week. Congrats.
Again, great time to trade. There's lots of volatility and if you're on the right side of it, you can make out well. There's been several weeks where if you're timing was unlucky you could be down that much in one day on any of those stocks. I think there's a lot of bad days ahead for those stocks.
You are figuring it out though not getting too wooly and thinking it will go on forever. A lot of investing is about behavior. Some folks don't learn how to take gains and they watch big gains become small over time or they watch them turn to losses.
If I were you I would pick some long term holds and if you have some "play money," that's okay too, but make sure you can lose it. Put long term holds in a tax deferred account like an IRA. You need to have some long term stuff.
You are figuring it out though not getting too wooly and thinking it will go on forever. A lot of investing is about behavior. Some folks don't learn how to take gains and they watch big gains become small over time or they watch them turn to losses.
If I were you I would pick some long term holds and if you have some "play money," that's okay too, but make sure you can lose it. Put long term holds in a tax deferred account like an IRA. You need to have some long term stuff.
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-Yeah....after a parabolic move higher the past few months. As a shareholder I've been waiting for it to have a sizable pull back so I can buy more.
They had an unbelievable quarter. They are paying workers more and hiring +150,000 folks. I think warehouse workers are making double OT rate. They have to supply a lot of PPE to workers and space them out more making operations slightly less efficient.
They could have chosen to not spend that much and easily beaten EPS estimates. They actually crushed revenue estimates and guided higher than estimates for the upcoming quarter.
I give the quarter an A+
They had an unbelievable quarter. They are paying workers more and hiring +150,000 folks. I think warehouse workers are making double OT rate. They have to supply a lot of PPE to workers and space them out more making operations slightly less efficient.
They could have chosen to not spend that much and easily beaten EPS estimates. They actually crushed revenue estimates and guided higher than estimates for the upcoming quarter.
I give the quarter an A+
I think within the next 3 - 4 years we are gonna hit a severe depression. The major cause of it will be debt. Right now we basically just had a small pullback. But I fear we could see something serious in the next few years.
I think there's going to be a consortium of countries
who basically inform China that they won't honor the coupon payment on the bonds that they were sold as restitution for the Covid outbreak. What happens after that will be either real good or real bad.
who basically inform China that they won't honor the coupon payment on the bonds that they were sold as restitution for the Covid outbreak. What happens after that will be either real good or real bad.
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