New info on asymptomatic people

[Ozarkdawg]

This says 60% aboard ship were asymptomatic. Now these were younger, in shape people. Fauci estimated 25-50% in the general population.

So at 677k cases in the US (assuming not many of those are asymptomatic because of all the symptoms you have to show to be tested), that means there could be an additional 225k - 1M asymptomatic folks walking around and spreading it right now.


https://www.yahoo.com/news/possible-clue-coronavirus-transmission-201204720.html

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

So at 677k cases in the US (assuming not many of those are asymptomatic because of all the symptoms you have to show to be tested), that means there could be an additional 225k - 1M asymptomatic folks walking around and spreading it right now.

Sounds like the perfect time to start opening everything back up.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

Way underestimated. For the first month of the outbreak, 50-75% of likely symptomatic positives were not allowed to get a test because they were not high risk or didn't meet stringent criteria to get tested.

So we have had 680k positives... Probably (at least) another 680k symptomatic positives that did not qualify for testing. And 50% asymptomatic. 3.5 million.... 35,000 deaths. 1% mortality? Maybe .5%?

 

[bruiser.sixpack]

Way underestimated. For the first month of the outbreak, 50-75% of likely symptomatic positives were not allowed to get a test because they were not high risk or didn't meet stringent criteria to get tested.

So we have had 680k positives... Probably (at least) another 680k symptomatic positives that did not qualify for testing. And 50% asymptomatic. 3.5 million.... 35,000 deaths. 1% mortality? Maybe .5%?

Don’t forget the number of those known and unknown that have recovered. Oh yeah. That is a number no one has. Never mind.

 

[Digging dog]

Sounds like we are closer to heard immunity than we think.

 

[engie]

You are still missing a tremendous variable. 677k positive tests among symptomatic people with enough complications to get tested. There are many multiples more people than that that have had or currently have the disease and are beating it without much difficulty in the comforts of their own home. Then the asymptomatic percentage comes off of that number. I think it’s very safe to say that somewhere north of 10 million have actually had it in this country.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

Which makes it less dangerous

 

[woozman]

Sounds like we are closer to heard immunity than we think.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.te...herd-immunity-to-covid-19-isnt-an-option/amp/

 

[Captain Ron]

Sounds like the perfect time to start opening everything back up.

So, exactly what is your timeline for reopening and why?

 

[DawgInThe256]

The CDC Director made a similar point this morning. The asymptomatic percentage can be roughly derived from the symptomatic cases.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

So, exactly what is your timeline for reopening and why?

When they can reasonably determine it is safe to do so without spiking the cases up and not making all the pain so far done in vain.

 

[theepicone]

Yeah I herd about that

 

[Captain Ron]

When they can reasonably determine it is safe to do so without spiking the cases up and not making all the pain so far done in vain.

So not until we have a vaccine then.

I have zero doubt when we reopen there will be a spike just as if we wait 6 months. I do believe it will be a much more benign spike than what we saw before as people have become much more adapt at social distancing compared to when we started.

The deal is, as ong as the virus is out there... and as long as there isn’t herd immunity..... and there can not be herd immunity if people are not exposed.... then all we are doing IMO is delaying the inevitable.

My only criteria is to keep the hospitalizations below capacity.

 

[engie]

The beginning of the Stanford study now says 50-85x more people have antibodies than have tested positive for the disease. Which means the death rate is 50-85x lower and also 50-85x more people have had it. If those numbers are extrapolated nationally, potentially as many as 60 million Americans are already past this. Slightly under halfway to herd immunity.

 

[Shooter McGavin.sixpack]

Well would you look at that? It is almost like these Stanford guys were on to something when they espoused this theory on March 24th. This type of study should be prioritized in every state as soon as possible.

 

[ckDOG]

50-85x is probably a little high to extrapolate against these entire US pop

Assuming Santa Clara is a little more worldly traveled than the general pop making it more likely that it showed up there earlier and more prevalent.

However, this is absolutely huge news. The denominator (even if 10x is more reasonable extrapolation) is about to explode making this look far less deadly - which has been a suspension of many all along. Of course, We need to manage health care resources to prevent other New York type scenarios from occurring, but this combined with promising anti-viral news makes me much more optimist that we get passed this sooner than later.

 

[johnson86-1]

The beginning of the Stanford study now says 50-85x more people have antibodies than have tested positive for the disease. Which means the death rate is 50-85x lower and also 50-85x more people have had it. If those numbers are extrapolated nationally, potentially as many as 60 million Americans are already past this. Slightly under halfway to herd immunity.

If 60 million americans have this, that would be like one fourth of the way to herd immunity. Probably less than that b/c if that's true, the R0 is probably a good bit higher than we thought, which would mean we need a higher percentage of the population to get it before having herd immunity.

 

[engie]

So your projection is that we’re going to require 80+% of the country to get it to form herd immunity? The answer really doesn’t matter because if either multiple is remotely correct, it makes this thing h1n1 essentially

 

[Misfit]

I would be surprised if the Stanford folks would agree with either of your extrapolations from their data. 1. Their tests were not performed on a random sampling of the population. They tested anybody who was willing to drive to the testing site and sit in their car for some period of time waiting to be tested. So the people tested self-selected. My guess is that a significant percentage of those folks had a reason to believe they had had the virus, so the numbers they got were skewed upward. 2. When Stanford started this testing, they said they suspected a larger percentage of the population in that area had been exposed because of the frequency of travel between that area and China, so even if their results could be extrapolated to the general population in that area of California, to extend it to Springfiled, Missouri, or Amory, Mississippi would be a tad extreme.

 

[BlueRidgeMtns]

This says 60% aboard ship were asymptomatic. Now these were younger, in shape people. Fauci estimated 25-50% in the general population.

So at 677k cases in the US (assuming not many of those are asymptomatic because of all the symptoms you have to show to be tested), that means there could be an additional 225k - 1M asymptomatic folks walking around and spreading it right now.l

This why it's so difficult in long term care and retirement communities. We screen team members every day they show up to work, but we know anyone could come in asymptomatic and spread it.

 

[johnson86-1]

So your projection is that we’re going to require 80+% of the country to get it to form herd immunity? The answer really doesn’t matter because if either multiple is remotely correct, it makes this thing h1n1 essentially

I was apparently mathing incorrectly, but was intending to use 65% to get to herd immunity, which is roughly what I have seen projected based on the current estimates of R0, and which I think would have to be a higher percentage if the R0 is higher.

120M would only get us to 37.5% infected and I don't think that would be near herd immunity.

 

[Ralph Cramden]

This whole thing is ridiculous. It's nothing more serious than a new strain of flu. Millions of people have already had it and never went to the doctor. Most normal people who get a flu dont take off to the doctor. Initial caution was a good idea to avoid a huge spike but it's time to get on with live as usual. More people die in car wrecks every day.

 

[Ralph Cramden]

35000 dead in a country of 331 million. Do the math. You can not hide from a virus anyway

 

[RockKickinSandPoundinSOB]

This says 60% aboard ship were asymptomatic. Now these were younger, in shape people. Fauci estimated 25-50% in the general population.

So at 677k cases in the US (assuming not many of those are asymptomatic because of all the symptoms you have to show to be tested), that means there could be an additional 225k - 1M asymptomatic folks walking around and spreading it right now.


https://www.yahoo.com/news/possible-clue-coronavirus-transmission-201204720.html

If Fauci said it assume the numbers are wrong. Weathermen are right more often than him.

 

[RockKickinSandPoundinSOB]

So, exactly what is your timeline for reopening and why?

I would say May 1st. You don’t reach herd immunity without being around the 17ing herd. The lower risk People need to be exposed To it. The high risk people stay home or away from crowds. I’m sure you agree. Just offering an opinion.