Stock futures up big. This could be huge news and a game changer. A medical break through is one reason why you didn't need to completely bail on the market.
Gilead drug showing effectiveness treating coronavirus
- Thread starter TheStateUofMS
- Start date
Thanks for the head's up. Best results I've read about so far.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16...uggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16...uggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/
A link:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16...uggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/
Hard to know exactly what it means for the impact on death rate. It says 2 out of 125 patients, 113 of which had severe symptoms, died. About 12.5% of confirmed cases require hospitalization, so ignoring the patients without severe symptoms and looking only at the 113, and assuming severe symptoms mean you require hospitalization, that would imply something like .22% mortality rate (2 / 113 * .125). That would still be twice the rate of the flu, but presumably that 12.5% number is wrong on the high side b/c there are so many unconfirmed cases. If only half of cases are confirmed and the 2 out of 113 paitents dying is not a fluke, that would mean the death rate with treatment is about that of the flu.
Not sure what the uncertainty is on that 2 out of 113 number is, or if you can even calculate that without a control group.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16...uggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/
Hard to know exactly what it means for the impact on death rate. It says 2 out of 125 patients, 113 of which had severe symptoms, died. About 12.5% of confirmed cases require hospitalization, so ignoring the patients without severe symptoms and looking only at the 113, and assuming severe symptoms mean you require hospitalization, that would imply something like .22% mortality rate (2 / 113 * .125). That would still be twice the rate of the flu, but presumably that 12.5% number is wrong on the high side b/c there are so many unconfirmed cases. If only half of cases are confirmed and the 2 out of 113 paitents dying is not a fluke, that would mean the death rate with treatment is about that of the flu.
Not sure what the uncertainty is on that 2 out of 113 number is, or if you can even calculate that without a control group.
The term "rapidly improved" was used in the article. That's a great sign. If you can take death virtually off the table except for extreme cases, just like the seasonal flu, that changes the game I think.
Says patients went from getting over the virus from an average of 10 days down to 6 as well.
ETA: Meant to add these results are largely from "severe" cases as well.
Says patients went from getting over the virus from an average of 10 days down to 6 as well.
ETA: Meant to add these results are largely from "severe" cases as well.
I actually bought SDOW late afternoon, but I sold it and took a loss in the AH. I'm FINE with that though.
I nearly tripled my portfolio on Netflix calls the past two days, and luckily sold at the top today.
Dunno what I’m gonna get in to tomorrow.
That's great news. We just need something to shorten hospital stays until the vaccine is ready. And if it can eventually be prescribed orally that's even better.
Don't go too deep on this one yet... Keep that 2nd mortgage anyway. This is great news and is a good drug, been the best option since the jump.
But they may poopoo this thing at some point. It was developed for Ebola and showed early promise, but petered out once it got into wider testing/usage. Hopefully it proves to be the real deal though.
But they may poopoo this thing at some point. It was developed for Ebola and showed early promise, but petered out once it got into wider testing/usage. Hopefully it proves to be the real deal though.
So they had 2 patients die which is 1.7% mortality rate and currently overall I think that’s about what it is currently in the US. But, again that’s just in the severe cases where obviously deaths are coming from. So if this holds up that’s great news and the mortality rate will be well below 1% and the quick response to treatment and early release from hospital is all very promising.
Im with people underestimating our amazing science and pharmaceutical companies and finding a effective treatment before the vaccine. If we do get more data like this along with mor and faster testing and results, we will be back to close to normal.
Im with people underestimating our amazing science and pharmaceutical companies and finding a effective treatment before the vaccine. If we do get more data like this along with mor and faster testing and results, we will be back to close to normal.
Yes remember only 10-15% are serious to critical, which is where the deaths come from obviously. So if you get that 10-15% to a 2% death rate that’s big for overall mortality.
This does look like great news. this appears to be intravenous, my questions are can we ramp this up and distribute it to hospitals quickly? 113 of the 125 were labeled "severe" which i take as meaning people who were going to likely end up on ventilators, and my understanding is that once you've hit that point, death rates are gigantic - to get a large majority of them out of the hospital within 4 or 5 days is incredible. I hope the FedGov is willing to use its authority to compel the manufacture of this stuff by as many labs as needed.
And here's another one with a higher death rate.
53 patients
34 on vents apparently at the start
7 died.
https://www.bizjournals.com/sacrame...ows-promising-early.html?ana=yahoo&yptr=yahoo
53 patients
34 on vents apparently at the start
7 died.
https://www.bizjournals.com/sacrame...ows-promising-early.html?ana=yahoo&yptr=yahoo
Well remember the goal here is now with quicker and mores testing we determine positive patients sooner and can start treatment and the more you stop from getting on vents the better. This is what will help us open the economy back up more safely.
haha. Yeah the Hydroxychloroquine has been working but media completely avoids it. They have jumped on this because Trump hasn’t mentioned it by name yet. They are both anti virals and obviously the biological are more promising but many people have said Hydroxychloroquine has saved their lives.
Point is again that with maltreatment options and safe practices we will be good to go h til the vaccine comes out. Bring on concerts and football!!!
It's not about Trump. I am sure the media will take their shots at him, but it's not like he doesn't **** right back on them...
This is about something more powerful than politics.. $. The sharp money has been on Remdesivir from the jump. The Ft Detrick guys from the Army know more about this type of thing than they will ever admit. I guarantee you they have been working with SARS and MERS for years..
The Army and Marines have had hydroxychloroquine since WW2 in the Pacific when malaria was as scary as the enemy.... Yet they jumped on the opportunity to sign up for free remdesivir. Cause they probably can't admit it, but they have been testing the **** out of Covids bigger deadlier brother SARS for the last decade or so..
https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/03/10/army-signs-agreement-with-drug-giant-gilead-on-experimental-covid-19-treatment/
The biggest reason everyone is geeked about remdesivir is the trials were on the sickest patients... Every hydroxychloroquine trial I have seen was focused on mild and asymptomatic patients... Of course almost all of them got better. (See link below.. to summarize, out of the 219 patients only 5 were severe and 2 died... Which is in line with no treatment) The remdesivir study everyone is going nuts about was almost entirely severe 113 out of 125 severe... And only 2 died.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30172-7/fulltext
Hydroxychloroquine 2/5
Remdesivir 2/113
Wall Street only cares about one thing...$$$$. In fact, they lean towards the lower tax guy anytime they can... In today's world that is Trump.
ETA... This is good news, but it's still an IV drug. You are not going to get to take this unless you are in the hospital. It's a good start on mortality rate improvement, but it is not the silver bullet we are looking for... The vaccine.
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You're doing all this stuff on Robinhood right?
Nicely done though. I can tell how much knowledge you've been soaking up. You've come a long way since you over valued Baker in the Fantasy League my friend***
Nicely done though. I can tell how much knowledge you've been soaking up. You've come a long way since you over valued Baker in the Fantasy League my friend***
He actually did on 3/19/20.
[h=1]President Donald Trump highlighted two drugs in particular at a Thursday press conference: remdesivir, an experimental antiviral developed by Gilead Sciences, and chloroquine, an old, generic anti-malaria pill.[/h]https://www.businessinsider.com/tru...ine-clinical-testing-compassionate-use-2020-3
[h=1]President Donald Trump highlighted two drugs in particular at a Thursday press conference: remdesivir, an experimental antiviral developed by Gilead Sciences, and chloroquine, an old, generic anti-malaria pill.[/h]https://www.businessinsider.com/tru...ine-clinical-testing-compassionate-use-2020-3
If it’s fixing up everyone that gets sick enough to need to go to the hospital and they are fine and ready to get out of there in 6 days rather than it being a 2-3 week battle that they end up winning or losing, and hopefully early administration prevents many of these serious cases from ever becoming serious, then it has tremendous implications for the world to start to get back to normal. If it essentially takes 90+% of the death from this virus off the table, even if it doesn’t prevent complications and thus hospitalizations in the first place, that’s a game changer.
Agree. Reducing hospital stays would be massive and keep your bed count from reaching capacity too quickly. You have the asymptomatic/mild case people at home and then the severe ones taking this at the hospital with reduced hospital stays. Here comes herd immunity.
My hunch is that its going to work earlier in the disease so if its introduced early in the disease it can be an effective drug. Its not a slam dunk by any means. I dont think its a cure for the virus, says @scottgottliebMD on the potential of remdesivir. $GILD pic.twitter.com/P5ZCdttYpe— Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC) April 17, 2020
We need to remember if this drug does work
I dont think this is a cure. I dont think this is going to be the one drug answer. But it can change the contours of the disease and mitigate the worst outcomes for some patients, says @ScottGottliebMD on remdesivir. $GILD pic.twitter.com/0guHsENV6S— Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC) April 17, 2020
Of course it isn't a cure because that would mean it prevents people from ever contracting the virus. If it's a highly effective treatment that's preventing a large proportion of the expected deaths as early studies seem to suggest, that's a game changer.
This may be getting lost in translation, but I agree with you. It's not the silver bullet that gets us all the way back to normal, but it's at least the casing. I put the tweets in so everyone could see a legit doctor (Former FDA head under Trump) and the most neutral news I can find (CNBC) saying that this may be the best thing yet.
Gottlieb has said there are 4 steps to normalcy...
1. Flatten the curve. Check.
2. Massive testing for virus and antibodies... Coming soon.
3. Antiviral to help cure the people that do get sick.... Remdesivir looking good so far.
4. Vaccine... Still looking like 2021.
Meh, it mirrors what we're basically seeing. Nobody has a clue how many cases there are in real life but in this trial, 2 of 125, so far have died in basically a controlled setting. I don't see this as a wonder drug at this point. And this is in phase 3. Helpful maybe but certainly not THE answer to this point.
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