6Pack Economic Sampling Survey

[Apoplectic_Objurgator]

I’m expecting the market to test the lows from a few weeks ago. However this market is fixated on the govt stimulus packages of the past and future.

How’s the 6 pack Main Street making out? My company is still making some products and I’m still working from home. Everything is ok now but it’s been said that everything is on the table - layoffs, furloughs, etc.

 

[missouridawg]

My sales are 10-20% of what they should be in a normal year.

My largest customer is a department store who has closed indefinitely. This customer makes up about 30% of my annual revenue.

 

[11thEagleFan]

I’m self-employed. Things are not good. Applied for the small business loan but no word yet. There’s enough in the operating account to pay my 8 employees for the next 2-3 weeks probably. Today is the first day that the true severity of the situation really hit me. Interestingly enough, I was offered a job today that pays pretty well, but wouldn’t start until June. Will probably have to close shop and accept a pay cut, but will have job security. And I’m one of the lucky ones.

 

[Ozarkdawg]

Our customers are the big box stores and fabricator shops. So far we have been wide open. Some office folks are working from home but some of us have to be there doing double and sometimes triple duty. Anyway, back to business. Lowe's and Depot may be down a little, but not much in the last 3-4 weeks. I'm beginning to think since they are about all that is open, folks are doing their renovations since they have to do something.

 

[Apoplectic_Objurgator]

Our customers are the big box stores and fabricator shops. So far we have been wide open. Some office folks are working from home but some of us have to be there doing double and sometimes triple duty. Anyway, back to business. Lowe's and Depot may be down a little, but not much in the last 3-4 weeks. I'm beginning to think since they are about all that is open, folks are doing their renovations since they have to do something.

This is me - wife says do those renovations you’ve been promising. Went to the big box three times today alone.

 

[HamSammich]

Me and my wife are very fortunate in that I’m an essential employee and her company is privately owned that allowed all employees to work from home without the business stopping.

We decided to do our part to help and get new counter tops installed in our house.... problem is, went three weeks ago to set up a measurement appointment (said they would be out in two days...) called them today (it’s been three weeks) to ask if they forgot about us.... yes, they did. Promised to come tomorrow or Thursday but it could be a month before they are installed due to “business being crazy.”

May have went to the wrong people.... when we went to their shop they were complaining about how business has basically stopped.

 

[57stratdawg]

Self employed. Looking at basically 0 work in April. Not that big of deal, honestly. But, hoping things pick up in May.

Waiting on the Bank to apply for PPP. A lot of confusion around self employed / K1s / no 940s or 941. New SBA direction today added even more confusion.

 

[SirBarksalot]

I’m in medical devices, that are predominantly used in elective cases. I got furloughed April 1, to 50% of salary, but that’s just half the story. Roughly 50% of my income is commissions and bonus, which are basically gone at this point. That said, I’ve been in the epicenter hospital, today and 3 days last week. Not making a lot of money but obviously putting myself at higher risk. Learned today that multiple people that work in the department had tested positive.

Wife got her salary cut by 20%, commish a bit more. I told her to be grateful.

i put in for unemployment assistance, but the system is honestly confusing, since I’m not 100% unemployed, not to mention it’s hard to even get on without it timing out.

 

[Ozarkdawg]

Hoping there are a lot of you guys out there. What I'm getting concerned about is eventually it has to dry up when folks are out of work a few more weeks.

 

[mstateglfr]

I work for a 3rd party logistics company. When overall transportation of goods is down, we do less business.
So yeah, we are doing less business.
Pretty sure corporate will find lesser performing areas to trim in the coming month.

I am lucky enough to handle ag business- so animal feed and nutrition, seed, and field chem.
All that is booming and will continue to. We gotsta grow shot even in times of struggle!

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

I am about to short the **** out of the S&P. Never shorted anything in my life. But I am getting ready to let her rip. Lemme tell you why.

Close of business today S&P was almost flat with 12 months ago... when we had one of the best economies in history.

I am in commercial construction. Mainly hotels and strip malls, but have a lot of friends in residential construction... The brakes are about to slam. The builders have been fighting tooth and nail for labor and the layoffs are already starting. Projects on the books appear to be completing... Though some residential buyers are cancelling. Residential construction is going to die for 8 months. Commercial for 24... Hotels and strip malls are going to stop being built for.. I have no idea.

Just because the economy is opening back up doesn't mean it will open back up... It will be on turtle throttle for a while. Most people will avoid dine in, concerts, theaters, sporting events, and anything where large groups of people will go until they know it's safe.

Who needs new tires on their car? Especially when 10-15% of businesses are not coming back anytime soon and another 10-15% are going to leave employees at home long term to telecommute. New car, new house? If you are in the market, it's not going to be for the 4500sf mcmansion... Double wide and a storm shelter sounds good.

Football in the fall? What happens if you are the NFL and you let 80,000 into the dome and it becomes a petri dish and 1500 people get infected? How many of them are going to sue the team, the league, the QB... Do you have them sign waivers.. And that applies to any business. I would be scared to death, cause Howe, Dooey, and Cheatum LLP will be filing suits left and right.

International exports make up 12% of our economy. And ain't **** going to Europe for a while. This may not last as long as 2008, but it's going to take time to heal the economy.... That said it will heal.

But the S&P at 2850? Nawww. 2400 might be fair, but I agree with the OP... We are looking at a W shaped pattern and I would guess It will pass the previous low when people quit asking when are we going to open and start focusing on how bad it's going to look even after the economy actually opens.

 

[JenBielema]

Industrial Real Estate here.....development side of business is wrapping up current projects but there will be zero new starts for the balance of the year (at least) unless it is a build to suit for a particular tenant that wants the space.

 

[SirBarksalot]

I am about to short the **** out of the S&P. Never shorted anything in my life. But I am getting ready to let her rip. Lemme tell you why.

Close of business today S&P was almost flat with 12 months ago... when we had one of the best economies in history.

I am in commercial construction. Mainly hotels and strip malls, but have a lot of friends in residential construction... The brakes are about to slam. The builders have been fighting tooth and nail for labor and the layoffs are already starting. Projects on the books appear to be completing... Though some residential buyers are cancelling. Residential construction is going to die for 8 months. Commercial for 24... Hotels and strip malls are going to stop being built for.. I have no idea.

Just because the economy is opening back up doesn't mean it will open back up... It will be on turtle throttle for a while. Most people will avoid dine in, concerts, theaters, sporting events, and anything where large groups of people will go until they know it's safe.

Who needs new tires on their car? Especially when 10-15% of businesses are not coming back anytime soon and another 10-15% are going to leave employees at home long term to telecommute. New car, new house? If you are in the market, it's not going to be for the 4500sf mcmansion... Double wide and a storm shelter sounds good.

Football in the fall? What happens if you are the NFL and you let 80,000 into the dome and it becomes a petri dish and 1500 people get infected? How many of them are going to sue the team, the league, the QB... Do you have them sign waivers.. And that applies to any business. I would be scared to death, cause Howie, Dooey, and Cheatum LLP will be filing suits left and right.

International exports make up 12% of our economy. And ain't **** going to Europe for a while. This may not last as long as 2008, but it's going to take time to heal the economy.... That said it will heal.

But the S&P at 2850? Nawww. 2400 might be fair, but I agree with the OP... We are looking at a W shaped pattern and I would guess It will pass the previous low when people quit asking when are we going to open and start focusing on how bad it's going to look even after the economy actually opens.

feel good thread of the night!

so what should we do with our 401ks? I took a hit early, but then moved it all to bond funds, avoided a bigger hit, but now I’m back in to equity funds.
what should I do now?

 

[o_Spectre]

strip malls are going to stop being built for.. I have no idea.

Good, they're awful. Maybe aesthetics can make a comeback.

 

[o_Spectre]

feel good thread of the night!

so what should we do with our 401ks? I took a hit early, but then moved it all to bond funds, avoided a bigger hit, but now I’m back in to equity funds.
what should I do now?

I wouldn't take advice from internet sports message board posters.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

Industrial Real Estate here.....development side of business is wrapping up current projects but there will be zero new starts for the balance of the year (at least) unless it is a build to suit for a particular tenant that wants the space.

Feel your pain. I think I am going to find something else to do until 2022. Cause 2021 will be for filling all the empty space created in 2020..

Luckily, I have one last big one closing out this month... I know Bert racked up when y'all left Fayetteville, but what are your plans for when the well dries up? Or are you in leasing?

 

[SirBarksalot]

I wouldn't take advice from internet sports message board posters.

Not taking it. Just want to hear it. And he’s probably as smart as my broker...but that’s a different story.

 

[patdog]

Man, those SBA loans are maddening. Especially for the self employed. Good luck. Be sure to keep good records of what the loan was spent for & what your lost profits are the 8 weeks after the loan date.

 

[Apoplectic_Objurgator]

I wouldn't take advice from internet sports message board posters.

It’s called data gathering- best stock advice I have ever received was from the biggest red neck I know

 

[o_Spectre]

It’s called data gathering- best stock advice I have ever received was from the biggest red neck I know

SPY/VOO until the kids graduate college.

 

[EagleDawg97]

Wife’s pay is cut 75% or more, she’s a nurse practitioner working in OBGYN. She has went from 20-25 patients a day (5 days a week), to only working 1/2 a day a week seeing about 5 patients. My pay is stable so far as we are considered an essential industry. It could be worse, and we have cut living expenses to the bare minimum to minimize the damage.

 

[Apoplectic_Objurgator]

SPY/VOO until the kids graduate college.

I’m looking to hit the lottery ticket in energy with GUSH, ERX, or UCO

 

[jethreauxdawg]

best stock advice I have ever received was from the biggest red neck I know

Well, share the wealth. I need all the help I can get. My wife is trying to make sure amazon doesn’t go out of business.

 

[Bucky Dog]

Very fortunate here that my wife is a teacher and I’m in medical with oncology company that has a consistent need.

With that said it kills me to hear the story of guys on here and our favorite restaurants and such closing and waiters not having income.

We MUST get all aspects of our economy up and running throughout the country as soon as possible, with certain changes, and with assumed risks by all of us. We cannot do this much longer. The trickle down will throw us in depression.

Best of luck to all of you self employed and furloughed. If I can ask those who still have jobs like us, hire the contractor to do some work, eat out at local restaurants often with the to go orders and tip them well. We will get through this.

 

[00Dawg]

Still employed.

Company killed our 401k match to start saving money.
Our clients are rehab-based, and their business is down anywhere from 30 to 95% depending on location. They're laying off people, closing offices (some permanently), and asking us for grace on payments owed.
We haven't had any COVID-related layoffs yet, but their may be some coming. I could see one guy on my team being on the chopping block if they do.

For sampling purposes, the next brother down had an entertainment industry job he was planning to take that has now evaporated.
The youngest brother isn't getting any timber cruising jobs, and his wife has been furloughed (hospitality industry). They're recently married, so I suspect if this goes much longer they'll be moving back in with someone's parents.

 

[KeyserSoze1999]

It reminds me of that Simpson's Halloween episode where Ms. Krabapelle is passing out tests and says, "Remember class, the worse you do on these Standardized Tests the more Funding our school gets...so knock yourselves out."

Basically the worse the news / employment numbers get - the more Federal Reserve $ loans and bailouts that the Stock Market will get.

View attachment 15876

 

[jethreauxdawg]

Basically the worse the news / employment numbers get - the more Federal Reserve $ loans and bailouts that the Stock Market will get.

View attachment 15876

This is not a coincidence. It’s a plan.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

Not taking it. Just want to hear it. And he’s probably as smart as my broker...but that’s a different story.

I'm just playing common sense. But my advice is free for a reason.. Here is my logic.

The negatives: Worst global collapse since the great depression.. Check. 40% drop in 2nd quarter GDP in the US according to JP Morgan.. Check. 20% unemployment by the end of the month. Check.

The positives: free money for banks to loan companies that have no customers... Check. Flattened the curve, but have no idea what that really means and how long it will stay flat if we leave our caves... Check. Once we open the economy everyone will book flights, hotels, season tickets for football, concert tickets, take the fam to the sizzler for a buffet, Dave and Buster's for a good time... Errnh.

We are trend for the most v shaped recovery in history. This aligns with when we will be allowed to leave home. But kids aren't in school until August, restaurants are going to struggle to survive for a year... Exports are going to suck... I'm not being negative here, I just can't see us staying on this trendline which will have us at a record high for the S&P on May 1, with the worst unemployment since 1935. I don't think I am going to far out on a limb to say this curve is going to at least flatten...

View attachment 15877

 

[BELdog]

Fortunate to work in an essential industry. Pay has been cut some for sure. Could get worse as most a big part of my earnings are based on production bonus. My wife is also in an essential field and her pay is not likely to be affected to a large degree. We’ve got a small house we are selling that should give us a large enough nest egg to weather the storm. We’ll deal with some paycuts and won’t be as comfortable, but I’m pretty danged grateful that we are working and not facing the potential of losing our jobs.

 

[Seinfeld]

I can’t go into a lot of specifics for some obvious reasons, but I work for a large global mfg company, and things are definitely not good. Due to the fact that we deal with power management products, we’ve been deemed essential in the U.S. along with most of Europe and Asia. However, India’s lockdown has been a killer, and there are concerns about what Mexico may do. People have to understand that “essential” is not a globally agreed upon term in a lot of cases

Anyway, I work directly for our global operations and supply chain planning, and all I can say is that it has an eerily similar feel to the stock market from a month ago. We keep slashing forecasts, but no one really knows where the bottom lies

From an HR perspective, I’ll just say that any type of furlough activity has been manageable thus far, but it’s quickly getting to the point where we’re running out of levers to pull. This is just me, but I feel a contraction coming later this year along with some staffing changes

Good luck out there guys. Scary times...

 

[BlueRidgeMtns]

Continuing Care Retirement Community administrator (Independent Living, Assisted Living, Nursing) ... from a financial standpoint, the only issue is that we have stopped admitting new residents for obvious reasons.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

Not taking it. Just want to hear it. And he’s probably as smart as my broker...but that’s a different story.

Ditch your broker in favor of a good registered investment adviser.

 

[Apoplectic_Objurgator]

Well, share the wealth. I need all the help I can get. My wife is trying to make sure amazon doesn’t go out of business.

always move slowly in and out of dark places

 

[woozman]

My wife and I are extremely lucky. She works for the Fed Govt and was already telecommuting 2-days per week so working from home is no problem for her. She typically travels 2-weeks per month and that has been cancelled, but she obviously doesn’t mind.

I work for a large international engineering firm and have been able to get my full billable weeks in so far from home. The only measures my company has taken thus far are that the company’s 401 match is suspended and all non-essential overhead costs are frozen. We had a really, really good 1st quarter and were cash flush when this hit, so again - lucky...

 

[stateu1]

Industrial Real Estate here.....development side of business is wrapping up current projects but there will be zero new starts for the balance of the year (at least) unless it is a build to suit for a particular tenant that wants the space.

My family has a contract with an industrial developer on a piece of real estate. What are the chances of it closing?

 

[Miketice]

Govt job.

I’m expecting the market to test the lows from a few weeks ago. However this market is fixated on the govt stimulus packages of the past and future.

How’s the 6 pack Main Street making out? My company is still making some products and I’m still working from home. Everything is ok now but it’s been said that everything is on the table - layoffs, furloughs, etc.

Working same as usual but most days I dont see anyone.

 

[rem101]

Work for myself - commercial insurance - as of right at a year ago. Luckily will have some renewals coming up, but 1 years worth isn't going to go far. New business is few and far between as you can't go see anyone, no one is buying/selling buildings, new businesses aren't opening. I do handle a small book of personal insurance, so might start dip into that more as people look to save money during this time. Now is looking like a good time to have stayed put where I was in 2019.

Wife is a PT, she's still working but not near the capacity she was and rate has been cut. Luckily her company has other streams of revenue that she'll be able to tap into to supplement.

I've so far redone some landscaping, built a fence and drank a lot of vodka all with product bought from local establishments.

 

[Spidey.sixpack]

working from home. have had to come back into the plant recently while internet is installed at new house. first week of furlough starts next week. have another scheduled for the week of May 18th. Just had a RIF and lost a fellow engineer at our site. raises have been cancelled for this year. still got a good job though. keeping it is the most important thing to me right now. all of this is while working for a fortune 100 company too

 

[Puppychow]

On a positive note about layoffs - shareholders love to see companies trim fat. We’re being forced to work smarter, leaner and cheaper. In the eyes of investors, it’s a good foundation to lay heading into our new normal.

 

[o_tacodawg]

Me and my wife are very fortunate in that I’m an essential employee and her company is privately owned that allowed all employees to work from home without the business stopping.

We decided to do our part to help and get new counter tops installed in our house.... problem is, went three weeks ago to set up a measurement appointment (said they would be out in two days...) called them today (it’s been three weeks) to ask if they forgot about us.... yes, they did. Promised to come tomorrow or Thursday but it could be a month before they are installed due to “business being crazy.”

May have went to the wrong people.... when we went to their shop they were complaining about how business has basically stopped.

Definitely went to the wrong folks or caught them at a bad time. My dad has been doing tile, showers, bathrooms, counter tops- you name it, since 1981 and business is booming for him right now.