IHME Model revised downward again

[00Dawg]

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/alabama

The previous revision predicted 7 states to run out of hospital beds, and another 11 out of ICU slots.
Today has 5 out of hospital beds, another 8 out of ICU slots.

I'm most familiar with Alabama numbers, so I can comment directly on those: their low ranges for today are now almost spot on with hospital bed usage. I think they may actually be under-predicting the ICU usage slightly. The historic numbers are still off.
The median says this state peaks in usage on 4/20, but the low range peaks on 4/15, so we'll see where that prediction lands.

Of note, the New York numbers are still way off. Their state department of health says they're down to just over 2,700 hospitalizations through 4/6. The low end of IHME model had that number over 14,000.

 

[My Bru]

Seems like a good place to link this article on Sweden: https://news.yahoo.com/sweden-found-solution-coronavirus-103003618.html

It still boggles my mind that we allowed this to happen.

 

[BigMotherTucker]

I've tracked projected deaths on that site since it was brought up the other day. Two days ago it projected Mississippi at around 237 deaths. Today it has moved to 301. Not a spike or anything. Just interesting. The country as a whole moved down though from 80k two days ago down to 60k today. That is encouraging.

 

[3407Dewey]

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/alabama

The previous revision predicted 7 states to run out of hospital beds, and another 11 out of ICU slots.
Today has 5 out of hospital beds, another 8 out of ICU slots.

I'm most familiar with Alabama numbers, so I can comment directly on those: their low ranges for today are now almost spot on with hospital bed usage. I think they may actually be under-predicting the ICU usage slightly. The historic numbers are still off.
The median says this state peaks in usage on 4/20, but the low range peaks on 4/15, so we'll see where that prediction lands.

Of note, the New York numbers are still way off. Their state department of health says they're down to just over 2,700 hospitalizations through 4/6. The low end of IHME model had that number over 14,000.

I think some of what's changing is that states are adjusting their resources (e.g., hospitals converting some wings to ICUs, adding ventilators, etc.). I believe the continued downward revisions are due to the adding of resources. Fewer people die when they get the care they need.

 

[Misfit]

Interesting article that congratulates Sweden without giving any numbers or noting that Sweden may still be a month away from the peak. In fact the Swedish legislature has just given the government the power to shut down schools and businesses, so they can do it quickly if/when the decision is made. The day after that article appeared in the National Review, the same National Review said it was far too early to have any clue how this was going to work out for Sweden. I hope it does work for them, but as I pointed out the other day, Sweden's population is 1 million less than Ohio's, but they now have 700 deaths compared to Ohio's 167. It has also been reported that there were a few hundred Swedes who had tested positive for CV19, been hospitalized, died without recovering, but CV19 was not listed as a cause of death on their death certificates, e.g. CV19 caused heart failure, but the death is attributed to heart failure, not CV19.

 

[L4Dawg]

Seems like a good place to link this article on Sweden: https://news.yahoo.com/sweden-found-solution-coronavirus-103003618.html

It still boggles my mind that we allowed this to happen.

There is something you need to understand: Sweeden is NOT the Untied States and Americans are NOT Sweedes. It isn't even apples to oranges, it's mre like apples to a bull buffalo.

 

[8dog]

From what I can tell Sweden is in trouble. They are gonna have to do something.

 

[TNT.sixpack]

https://www.gulflive.com/news/2020/04/report-mississippi-ranks-50th-in-covid-19-testing.html

 

[Captain Ron]

Interesting article that congratulates Sweden without giving any numbers or noting that Sweden may still be a month away from the peak. In fact the Swedish legislature has just given the government the power to shut down schools and businesses, so they can do it quickly if/when the decision is made. The day after that article appeared in the National Review, the same National Review said it was far too early to have any clue how this was going to work out for Sweden. I hope it does work for them, but as I pointed out the other day, Sweden's population is 1 million less than Ohio's, but they now have 700 deaths compared to Ohio's 167. It has also been reported that there were a few hundred Swedes who had tested positive for CV19, been hospitalized, died without recovering, but CV19 was not listed as a cause of death on their death certificates, e.g. CV19 caused heart failure, but the death is attributed to heart failure, not CV19.

I have been watching Sweden as well. It will be interesting to see how it all turns out for them.

Short of a cure or vaccine, it seems that most countries are taking the slow burn approach to avoid overwhelming the healthcare system. At the moment, that is causing drastic lifestyle changes and an incredible hit on our economy.

Sweden on the other hand, is keeping the economy open using less restrictive measures. Their cases may rise faster (who knows) but up until people are dying due to lack of medical resources, I am not sure we say their measures wont be effective based strictly on mortality rate.

IHME does project them to be short on ICU beds etc.

 

[00Dawg]

Nope.

The initial major revision was due to removing the Chinese curve and applying a European based one.
The latest appears to be plugging in more reported case/hospitalization/ICU figures as they come in from the field.
They haven't adjusted the available resource numbers.

 

[msstate7]

https://www.gulflive.com/news/2020/04/report-mississippi-ranks-50th-in-covid-19-testing.html

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Worldometers.com disagrees with tests per capita

 

[Choctaw Dawg]

It was good to see Fauci tout that he is "pretty encouraged" that school will start back in August. As long as everybody keeps proper social distancing until May we could nip this thing in the bud while more research is done between now and the fall when cases might rise again.

 

[johnson86-1]

There is something you need to understand: Sweeden is NOT the Untied States and Americans are NOT Sweedes. It isn't even apples to oranges, it's mre like apples to a bull buffalo.

It would be nice if people kept this in mind when comparing the US to nordic countries and the levels of "socialism" that they think the US should adopt. Also be nice if they had an idea of how socialist those countries actually are and in what areas.

 

[WutheringDawg]

Sweeden is in Kentucky.

 

[WutheringDawg]

The only thing I can think of that Americans would decry as socialist is universal Healthcare. Can you fill me in on how socialist they ACTUALLY are?

 

[fishwater99]

I have been watching Sweden as well. It will be interesting to see how it all turns out for them.

Short of a cure or vaccine, it seems that most countries are taking the slow burn approach to avoid overwhelming the healthcare system. At the moment, that is causing drastic lifestyle changes and an incredible hit on our economy.

Sweden on the other hand, is keeping the economy open using less restrictive measures. Their cases may rise faster (who knows) but up until people are dying due to lack of medical resources, I am not sure we say their measures wont be effective based strictly on mortality rate.

IHME does project them to be short on ICU beds etc.

Yep, let's see what happens. I am pulling for Sweden!

 

[UpTheMiddlex3Punt]

Sweden has about 10 million people. The US has about 330 million. So a factor of 33.

Sweden had 591 deaths as of 4/7. Multiply that by 33 and you get 19,503. The US had only 12,674 as of 4/7.

However, when compared to Spain and Italy, Sweden is doing great.

 

[kired]

I appreciate them volunteering as test subjects for social non-distancing. Will be interesting to look back in a few years to see how the different approaches worked long term.

It's hard to criticize anyone's response to this. Everyone has their own idea - some will be right, some will be wrong. But it's too early to judge what worked best.

 

[Cowdog]

Didn’t the article miscalculate the percent test. Or at least forgot to multiply his answer by 100 when calling it .007percent.

 

[My Bru]

There is something you need to understand: Sweeden is NOT the Untied States and Americans are NOT Sweedes. It isn't even apples to oranges, it's mre like apples to a bull buffalo.

I actually agree when it comes to the socialist stuff. But this is a contagious virus. I do imagine they are probably healthier in general in Sweden than in the U.S, simply due to less obesity. Which generally would make them also more sanitary in general.

Still makes me wonder - when are we going to let people be responsible for themselves? If we are such an obese, dirty, unhealthy population who is more vulnerable to infection, who's fault is that? Don't people make conscious decisions to be that way?

 

[Hump4Hoops]

People don't volunteer to be old or have autoimmune issues.

when are we going to let people be responsible for themselves? If we are such an obese, dirty, unhealthy population who is more vulnerable to infection, who's fault is that? Don't people make conscious decisions to be that way?

I understand that empathy is difficult for you, but give it an honest try sometime.

 

[8dog]

I think swedens first identified case was about 40 days after the us first identified case.

 

[o_1984Dawg]

How do they compare to Norway and Finland? I would think that would be a more accurate measure of their success.

 

[00Dawg]

This will be something to review once GDP numbers are out...

for 2020 and 2021. Discussing economic impact versus deaths should be a lively conversation.

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

I hope the Swedish Bikini Team is staying safe!

 

[My Bru]

I understand that empathy is difficult for you, but give it an honest try sometime.

Why exactly can they not stay at home during a pandemic? This has nothing to do with my empathy or lack thereof, so cut the shaming.

 

[My Bru]

Sweden has about 10 million people. The US has about 330 million. So a factor of 33.

Sweden had 591 deaths as of 4/7. Multiply that by 33 and you get 19,503. The US had only 12,674 as of 4/7.

However, when compared to Spain and Italy, Sweden is doing great.

You also have to factor in the damage done to our economy, which is directly tied to many health/suicides in the U.S.

 

[johnson86-1]

The only thing I can think of that Americans would decry as socialist is universal Healthcare. Can you fill me in on how socialist they ACTUALLY are?

They are each different, but they are not nearly as socialist as the left in america likes to think. Denmark, for example, had much lower corporate income tax rates before we cut ours under Trump and generally have a free market economy. And they were moving to shrink their welfare state. Sweden has school vouchers and private passenger railroads and don't bailout their large companies the way we do in the US.

ETA: but most importantly, despite being "socialist" to whatever extent the left thinks they are, they are relatively honest and have relatively honest government, with all of them being akin to maybe Utah and not like Illinois or any of your typical socialist countries where gov't control is a mechanism to enrich those controlling the government.

 

[UpTheMiddlex3Punt]

How do they compare to Norway and Finland? I would think that would be a more accurate measure of their success.

Norway has a little more than half the population but only 93 deaths.
Finland has a little more than half of Sweden's population but only 40 deaths.

 

[BlueRidgeMtns]

View attachment 15812

 

[J-Dawg]

https://www.gulflive.com/news/2020/04/report-mississippi-ranks-50th-in-covid-19-testing.html

People just have a blank template that reads "MISSISSIPPI RANKS 50TH FOR ______________________" and copy and paste whatever the topic du jour is.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

for 2020 and 2021. Discussing economic impact versus deaths should be a lively conversation.

It will be lively.. My thoughts are Sweden still has a major recession, as would any other country, including the US that didn't close down non essential businesses. Because with most of the world in lockdown, businesses will suffer from the global recession. Volvo is going to **** the bed. Plus, many Swedish people have quit going to restaurants and are staying home anyway. As has been mentioned, they may soon go on ful lockdown after letting it spread for a month... That's the worst thing to do.

We always act like the economy was going to be fine without a lockdown.. Covid19 was going to cause a major recession if we changed nothing. So it's not like you would have had a positive growth year or even a flat year. It would still be a negative growth year because so much of our economy is port/export. And you would have cost a lot of extra lives.