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Updated Virus Numbers

She Mate Me

She Mate Me

Heisman
Dec 7, 2008
15,357
14,954
113
This is a summary of the two week change in the virus case stats on the 3 sites I periodically check. I know the data continues to be flawed at this point, but consider it worth watching...

https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/14,0,420.html

Mississippi Positive Cases

3/13/20 - 6 (in 4 counties)
3/20/20 - 80 (in 32 counties)
3/27/20 - 579 (in 68 of 82 counties)

Mississippi Deaths

3/13/20 - 0
3/20/20 - 1 (in 1 county)
3/27/20 - 8 (in 8 counties)

Individuals tested by MSDH and private labs

3/13/20 - 90
3/20/20 - 775
3/27/20 - 3,139

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ing-in-us.html

U.S. Total Cases

3/13/20 - 1,629
3/20/20 - 15,219
3/27/20 - 85,356

U.S. Total Deaths

3/13/20 - 41
3/20/20 - 201
3/27/20 - 1,246

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Global Confirmed Cases

3/13/20 - 137,445
3/20/20 - 266,082
3/27/20 - 566,269

Global Deaths

3/13/20 - 5,088
3/20/20 - 11,153
3/27/20 - 25,423
 
57stratdawg

57stratdawg

Heisman
Dec 1, 2004
148,722
24,593
113
Thanks for data.

That death rate could be pretty ugly in a month if something doesn’t change..
 
She Mate Me

She Mate Me

Heisman
Dec 7, 2008
15,357
14,954
113
57stratdawg said:
Thanks for data.

That death rate could be pretty ugly in a month if something doesn’t change..
Click to expand...

YVW. Yeah, the scary thing (and the reason experts were able to get the ears and actions of officials) is the exponential nature of the growth of a highly contagious, novel virus. The predicted numbers are not just guesses. There's plenty of data behind those models.
 
S

softballfanatic1

Redshirt
Jan 7, 2020
45
0
0
I had to go to the pharmacy for an essential medication and it is astounding the people going about their business like nothing is going on. Walmart, Lowe’s, pawn shops, convenience stores, liquor stores and traffic everywhere. At this rate going up ~20% everyday; in 14 days Mississippi will be at ~7500 cases. And based on current death/confirmed cases percentage increases. In 14 days we could see 300+ deaths. Tired of people comparing this to the flu. Flu related hospitalizations are under 5%. COVID-19 is around 30+ % and it’s 4-5 times more contagious.
 
yjnkdawg

yjnkdawg

Redshirt
Sep 6, 2013
469
6
18
This came directly off the MSDH website concerning the number of tests conducted. Dr. Dobbs stated in the press conference yesterday that they hope to have all lab results shortly but currently they have only the ones performed at the MSDH Lab. That should pretty much double the number of tests conducted

"Total individuals tested for COVID-19 by the MSDH Public Health Laboratory: 3,139
As of March 26, 2020.Does not include testing done by outside providers."
 
1msucub

1msucub

Senior
Oct 3, 2004
2,190
761
113
fishwater99 said:
Tate needs to shutdown Mississippi yesterday.
Click to expand...

But we're not China. Or North Korea. I didn't know that until Tate told me so earlier this week.******

I am absolutely disgusted with what he has said this week, given that every single reputable health organization counters his stance on opening businesses. I don't know everything about everything, so when there is a subject that I'm not an expert on, I tend to seek advice from, you know, experts.


By the way, Fish.....I 100% agree with you.
 
She Mate Me

She Mate Me

Heisman
Dec 7, 2008
15,357
14,954
113
yjnkdawg said:
This came directly off the MSDH website concerning the number of tests conducted. Dr. Dobbs stated in the press conference yesterday that they hope to have all lab results shortly but currently they have only the ones performed at the MSDH Lab. That should pretty much double the number of tests conducted

"Total individuals tested for COVID-19 by the MSDH Public Health Laboratory: 3,139
As of March 26, 2020.Does not include testing done by outside providers."
Click to expand...

They've changed that statement regarding private labs inclusion in the numbers a few times just this week but the numbers only trend up. I'm just going to post it this way for consistency sake since they can't seem to decide.

If they're not including private lab numbers now, it'll be obvious when they start to and I'll note it. Thanks for the heads up.
 
RiverCityDawg

RiverCityDawg

All-American
Dec 30, 2009
3,225
5,058
113
softballfanatic1 said:
I had to go to the pharmacy for an essential medication and it is astounding the people going about their business like nothing is going on. Walmart, Lowe’s, pawn shops, convenience stores, liquor stores and traffic everywhere. At this rate going up ~20% everyday; in 14 days Mississippi will be at ~7500 cases. And based on current death/confirmed cases percentage increases. In 14 days we could see 300+ deaths. Tired of people comparing this to the flu. Flu related hospitalizations are under 5%. COVID-19 is around 30+ % and it’s 4-5 times more contagious.
Click to expand...

Where do you get that it's 4-5 times more contagious? Seasonal flu has a R(0) value of about 1.3 compared to COVID-19 being at 2.2 (so they think, per the article linked in this thread). So it seems to be just a bit twice as contagious if you believe the data.

The hospitalization figures are concerning. I wonder how valid those numbers are considering the possibility of a large number or people with no or little symptoms who have not and will not be tested. Of course if this is true I suppose the R(0) value could actually be higher.

Again, the article written by Fauci linked in this thread says it's more like a severe flu than SARS from a death rate perspective, so I don't think the flu comparison is quite as outrageous as you may think. Certainly more serious than the flu though.
 
yjnkdawg

yjnkdawg

Redshirt
Sep 6, 2013
469
6
18
She Mate Me said:
They've changed that statement regarding private labs inclusion in the numbers a few times just this week but the numbers only trend up. I'm just going to post it this way for consistency sake since they can't seem to decide.

If they're not including private lab numbers now, it'll be obvious when they start to and I'll note it. Thanks for the heads up.
Click to expand...


You're welcome. I wasn't trying to be smart, but that's what Dr. Dobbs said yesterday.
 
yjnkdawg

yjnkdawg

Redshirt
Sep 6, 2013
469
6
18
softballfanatic1 said:
I had to go to the pharmacy for an essential medication and it is astounding the people going about their business like nothing is going on. Walmart, Lowe’s, pawn shops, convenience stores, liquor stores and traffic everywhere. At this rate going up ~20% everyday; in 14 days Mississippi will be at ~7500 cases. And based on current death/confirmed cases percentage increases. In 14 days we could see 300+ deaths. Tired of people comparing this to the flu. Flu related hospitalizations are under 5%. COVID-19 is around 30+ % and it’s 4-5 times more contagious.
Click to expand...

The numbers are going up is because more people are being tested. They are only testing people who meet the MSDH testing protocol. Not just anybody who wants the test can get it. So they have to have certain symptoms or they have been exposed to the virus by the MSDH's investigative tracing. The MSDH was expecting those numbers to go higher with more testing. Some of the tests are still a back log. Dr. Dobbs said yesterday that they hope in the next few days to show what actual tests were done the day prior to their announcement each day. Then the data will be where they can look at it on a day to day basis on increase or decrease of positives, etc.
 
Last edited:
S

softballfanatic1

Redshirt
Jan 7, 2020
45
0
0
Good points. My concern and the numbers I’ve seen is that the flu’s incubation period is lower than the coronavirus so it by default becomes more contagious because contagious people are spreading it unknowingly. And you’re right it’s twice as contagious one person to one person versus 1 person to 2 persons. But take that a step farther especially with the undiagnosed/asymptomatic persons. So if I infect 2 people and they infect 2 apiece and they each infect 2 people and so on. Not arguing with anyone on here. Just concerned. Y’all stay safe.
 
U

UpTheMiddlex3Punt

All-Conference
May 28, 2007
18,135
4,224
113
The problem with looking at R(0) is that it gives you no idea how fast a contagion can spread. A contagion can have an R(0) of 10 but if it takes a year to go from catching the disease to being able to spread it, it will not grow at a fast rate. You can have a disease with a tiny 1.1 rate that would grow like wildfire if it took one hour for each person to spread it.

The good news is the latter one would be easier to stop. You have a much shorter windows of being contagious and you could trace who you possibly exposed. A lockdown of a couple days would probably do the trick. The first one would require greater isolation and insane quarantine times, and doing nothing would infect nearly everybody in the country within 10 years.
 
P

paindonthurt_

All-Conference
Jun 27, 2009
9,528
2,046
113
The death rate is going down. Not up.
Want to wager on where it is in a month?
4.58% right now.
Take out Italy infected and dead and it drops to 3.55%.
Of confirmed cases.
 
She Mate Me

She Mate Me

Heisman
Dec 7, 2008
15,357
14,954
113
yjnkdawg said:
You're welcome. I wasn't trying to be smart, but that's what Dr. Dobbs said yesterday.
Click to expand...

I took your post as helpful. I debated using their current language, but figured the numbers will eventually include private labs and I would just make a note if past numbers didn't.
 
Uncle Ruckus

Uncle Ruckus

All-American
Apr 1, 2011
15,371
6,818
113
You can’t take out a country just because the results are bad. Deaths are deaths.
 
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