I have been reading up on the "flatenning the curve" approach and

[paindonthurt_]

If 130,000 people are infected after 3 months in the world and after 6 months for H1N1 61,000,000 Americans were infected I don’t think you can say the Infection rate is the same.

Let’s say the number infected goes from 130,000 to 6.5 million (50x)
Death numbers triple to 15,000
15,000 divided by 6.5 mill is 0.2% new death rate

 

[paindonthurt_]

The death rate in South Korea is 0.9%.
As they test more people that will drop more.

 

[40 acres and a mule]

I have read and heard on TV that about 90% of antibiotics used in the US are imported from China. I have also read and heard that China has threatened to cut off supplies of antibiotics to the US. Since secondary bacterial infections are a major cause of death in both Coronavirus and regular old flu, we have no choice but do everything possible to try to flatten the curve.

How the hell did our so called leaders allow us to get to the point where we are importing almost all of our antibiotics from an adversary? Were they lazy, bribed, or just stupid? How could you fight a major war without antibiotics?

Politicians allowed this to happen long before Trump arrived, but he is supposed to be the stupid one. I hope this Coronavirus event is enough of a wake-up call to fix this.

(I tried to post this under the main topic. But no matter what I do, my post is always under the last one. So, not specifically replying to your post about the Masters.)

 

[paindonthurt_]

I think somewhere in the middle is idea.
Take precautions like limiting travel, etc but don’t sacrifice the economy at the same time.

A terrible world economy Bc of this reaction COULD kill more people than the virus even if unchecked.

I’m not saying it will, I’m saying don’t solve 1 problem to create 10 more.

 

[1msucub]

I think there is plenty of panic buying from people that aren’t concerned in the least with the actual sickness — they’re concerned with complete economic collapse brought on by the panic (legitimate or not). While I’m not in their group, I do feel anxious and a little unprepared for that doomsday scenario as a parent.

This is just to build on your post, not argue against it in any way.

Absolutely. Good points, friend.

 

[paindonthurt_]

EARLY ON H1N1 had a much higher death rate UNTIL more cases were confirmed.

5000/15000 is 33%
5000/50000 is 10%
5000/ 200000 is 2.5%

The number of cases confirmed is 130,000. CONFIRMED.
The number of infected is way higher but they aren’t CONFIRMED.

Confirming them isn’t going to kill more people.

 

[SirBarksalot]

Getting the curve flat, will absolutely give the naysayers “I told you so” opportunities, and that would be great.

paywall should be down on this.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/...action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

 

[11thEagleFan]

Okay I don’t get postponing the Masters. Just limit attendees to 250 or whatever the CDC recommendation is. I don’t need large roaring crowds with golf.

 

[JungRebel]

The Swine Flu killed .0002% of the Americans it infected (~12,000 ÷ ~60,000,000). If the coronavirus kills just 1% (still unknown), that is 10x more than the regular flu, about 5,000 times deadlier than the Swine Flue, without even considering how complicated the healthcare situation could be if hospitals get over run.

Only god knows if it's an overreaction. Italy wishes they had overreacted. We arent even close to the methods China is using and I doubt Americans would ever stand for them.

 

[Raiderdawg.sixpack]

I’m simply asking why we didn’t all freak the 17 out with swine flu?

Were we more willing to bet against the at-risk population back in 2009?

How abt some balance? Let’s be cautious but not destroy economy and lives by freaking out to save lives.

A major difference:

Swine flu was a H1N1 strain. Humans have been infected for hundreds of variants of H1N1 flu. The 1918 Spanish flu was another variant of H1N1. The mutation rate for these types of viruses is so high, you could get infected and present with flu symptoms with 1 H1N1 and then get another variant later and get sick again. This is why the vaccines aren’t always great. That said, if you have been infected by some H1N1 flu before, you may have memory Immune cells that offered cross-protection. Plus If the vaccine that year is matched well, it can fully protect or reduce the severity.

Turns out a lot of people had enough memory immunity from previous flu exposures and the vaccine was very protective. So a lot of the population were not at risk. So swine flu did the damage it did worldwide kind of damage people were protected.

There are 7 coronaviruses that are known to infect humans. This SARS-Cov2 virus has 2 variants that we know of. If you had one of the 4 that cause the common cold, memory to those strains may provide some protection to this virus, but that’s still debated in literature. That might be why some cases are mild, but we aren’t sure. There is no vaccine.

So one was bad, but some people had immunity and a pretty good vaccine VS a virus that is hitting a very naive population with no vaccine.

 

[SirBarksalot]

Ben Shapiro does a good job of explaining flattening the curve, today.
https://youtu.be/z6Sh9auo7W4

 

[engie]

If we hit the estimated case number above, that would mean we would get hit 318865.5 times worse than China (ground zero) has so far

China had a total of roughly the same number of H1N1 cases as we did and 1/5 the number of deaths, while having 5x as many people. So they handled that one somewhere between 5x and 25x as well as we did.

China is not a good case study for us on this. They took extreme measures well beyond what is constitutionally allowable in the US. And they have simply slowed the rate of infection, they haven't defeated it.

 

[SirBarksalot]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...le&pgtype=Article&region=Footer&region=Footer

 

[basedawg]

Saw interesting chart, listed all the Coronavirus cases (that are known) in the world (Jan to Feb) which was over the 120K and over half have recovered. This was a few days ago and it was a little less the 5K deaths from the Virus. Western Countries have way more problems than the US. China and Italy dominate the market with the virus.

 

[Crazy Cotton]

China took draconian isolation/quarantine measures once they realized how deadly this thing was, and they were able to ramp up hospital capacity in an unbelievably short amount of time. For example, they had thousands of teams (5 people per team) who tracked back cases in Wuhan, quarantining those who had exposure. They shut down everything during that period in the largest and most complete quarantine in human history. That gave them the capacity to treat a lot of cases that would have likely been fatal, and to dramatically slow spread. Some of that was creating large containment hospitals to essentially store and treat people while the virus ran its course In the meantime, you're building herd protection as those who have been exposed are coming back "online" with immunity once that person has recovered. We can't do that in our country, we don't get to just lock people down, so its on all of us to take precautions.

 

[BELdog]

Social media is losing its poop right now including many on this site.

You provide legit info and they change the subject.

Another good article here on H1N1 compared to WUHAN VIRUS.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wa...-similar-epidemics-played-out/?outputType=amp

People want a reason to freak out. The Wuhan Flu will blow over within a few months and something else will come along and rustle people’s jimmie’s. H1N1 was originally believed to be a devastating illness, but it lost steam once it hit the global population as most people showed extremely mild symptoms. This COVID-19 business will be the same way. It’s a serious concern for the elderly, the young and the medically vulnerable, but for most healthy adults, the symptoms will be barely a blip on the radar. If the sheep continue to freak out like this is the beginning of “I am Legend” I’ll be able to keep buying stock at current rates and double or triple my investments in six months when this blows over.

 

[Xenomorph]

Lot of travel would be required by a lot of people just to put it on.

 

[deadheaddawg]

Apples and oranges. China is a dictatorship, a feature of which is the ability to control freedom of movement. We (thankfully) don't have that option here.

The most dramatic—and controversial—measure was the lockdown of Wuhan and nearby cities in Hubei province, which has put at least 50 million people under a mandatory quarantine since 23 January. That has “effectively prevented further exportation of infected individuals to the rest of the country,” the report concludes. In other regions of mainland China, people voluntarily quarantined and were monitored by appointed leaders in neighborhoods.
Chinese authorities also built two dedicated hospitals in Wuhan in just over 1 week. Health care workers from all over China were sent to the outbreak’s center. The government launched an unprecedented effort to trace contacts of confirmed cases. In Wuhan alone, more than 1800 teams of five or more people traced tens of thousands of contacts

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...coronavirus-they-may-not-work-other-countries

and that is why we need individuals and corporations to do the intelligent thing. Because we are blessed with freedom, we have to be smart as a population. School closings, sports being canceled is the right move.

 

[mstateglfr]

How the hell did our so called leaders allow us to get to the point where we are importing almost all of our antibiotics from an adversary?

China is a partner as well as an adversary. Its a complex relationship and not nearly as basic as you make it seem.

 

[dorndawg]

It’s a serious concern for the elderly, the young and the medically vulnerable

Do you 17ing morons not understand THE REST OF US CAN SPREAD THE INFECTION TO THEM? Or do you just not give a **** about vulnerable members of our society?

 

[LilSebastian]

I’m simply asking why we didn’t all freak the 17 out with swine flu?

Were we more willing to bet against the at-risk population back in 2009?

How abt some balance? Let’s be cautious but not destroy economy and lives by freaking out to save lives.

Maybe people are freaking out because they have no confidence in the White House in an actual crisis.

 

[BELdog]

Do you 17ing morons not understand THE REST OF US CAN SPREAD THE INFECTION TO THEM? Or do you just not give a **** about vulnerable members of our society?

I understand perfectly well that healthy adults can spread the infection. Makes a lot more sense to quarantine those with higher risks, rather than taking drastic measures that affect everyone.

 

[MadDawg.sixpack]

Maybe people are freaking out because they have no confidence in the White House in an actual crisis.

So it's a made-up over-reaction. Gotcha.

 

[40 acres and a mule]

China is a partner as well as an adversary. Its a complex relationship and not nearly as basic as you make it seem.

OK. You convinced me. The present situation is a really good idea. No need to change it. Thanks.

 

[OldFatDog]

I understand perfectly well that healthy adults can spread the infection. Makes a lot more sense to quarantine those with higher risks, rather than taking drastic measures that affect everyone.

I really don't think that you do understand. Your solution is to quarantine every old person, all the children with severe asthma, people with certain types of cancer, etc.? You have to know that your solution would drastically affect everyone.

 

[BELdog]

I really don't think that you do understand. Your solution is to quarantine every old person, all the children with severe asthma, people with certain types of cancer, etc.? You have to know that your solution would drastically affect everyone.

If those “at-risk” populations would self-quarantine, with some form of government assistance provided to soften the blow, the rest of us could continue to live our lives uninterrupted, or only slightly disrupted.

 

[Raiderdawg.sixpack]

If those “at-risk” populations would self-quarantine, with some form of government assistance provided to soften the blow, the rest of us could continue to live our lives uninterrupted, or only slightly disrupted.

That would be an interesting way for people to learn they had an unidentified medical condition.

 

[BELdog]

That would be an interesting way for people to learn they had an unidentified medical condition.

If it’s serious enough to matter in terms of this virus, you’d know about it.

 

[mstateglfr]

OK. You convinced me. The present situation is a really good idea. No need to change it. Thanks.

Well that was an absurd response. I didnt try to convince you that the present situation is a really good idea and that it doesnt need to be changed.

As I clearly stated- china is both a partner and an adversary. It's a complex relationship. They may be an adversary on some things(hacking, etc) while a partner on other things(trade).

Even then, they may be viewed by some as an adversary on something they partner with us for(trade, for example).

See how that's complex?

I dont think it's good for all antibiotics to be manufactured in china(or any other country). All eggs in one basket is rarely a sound plan when it comes to reliability of goods. Puerto rico is/was the primary manufacturer of IV bags and there was a crazy shortage of them after the hurricane devastated that island.
It's not specifically china that is a bad place to solely rely on for vital equipment.

 

[ChroamOneHundred]

For instance: obesity

 

[ezsoil]

Do the math. 61M cases and 12,000 deaths in the US. That's like 0.02%

The mortality rate for this one has been estimated as high as 3%. Just assume it's really only 1%. If 61M Americans get infected, that's 610,000 deaths. 50 times H1N1. Or if the mortality rate really is 3%, that's almost 2,000,000 people.

12,000 vs 2,000,000 is a kind of a big difference.

yo homes it was 18,000 H1 N1 deaths in the US during the course of the infection stretching over 10 months in 2009 and 2010

 

[JungRebel]

If 60 million people got it and, let's say, even 20 thousand people died, that is still just .0003% of people getting it dying. That isnt even anywhere close to the regular flu. That's why it wasnt a big deal. And trust me, there were still people making a big deal about it back then.

 

[Ralph Cramden]

When it goes away in 3 months and the kill ratio is found to be less than the annual flu everyone will say" Thank God we freaked out and cancelled our entire lives and tanked the economy. Imagine how many lives we saved" Eventually all the business owners and hourly employees can get back on their feet and 7 years later the bankruptcy will come off their credit report

 

[OldFatDog]

When it goes away in 3 months and the kill ratio is found to be less than the annual flu everyone will say" Thank God we freaked out and cancelled our entire lives and tanked the economy. Imagine how many lives we saved" Eventually all the business owners and hourly employees can get back on their feet and 7 years later the bankruptcy will come off their credit report

If we are smart, we will say “Thank God we took aggressive action and contained this.”

 

[mstateglfr]

When it goes away in 3 months and the kill ratio is found to be less than the annual flu everyone will say" Thank God we freaked out and cancelled our entire lives and tanked the economy. Imagine how many lives we saved" Eventually all the business owners and hourly employees can get back on their feet and 7 years later the bankruptcy will come off their credit report

Oh, gotcha- I think I now understand your position on this topic. I was stop confused after the first 30 posts of yours that dismiss/ridicule the stated importance of prevention and all the measures that have taken place but I this to this 31st post, I now understand your view on this matter.

 

[deadheaddawg]

I understand perfectly well that healthy adults can spread the infection. Makes a lot more sense to quarantine those with higher risks, rather than taking drastic measures that affect everyone.

No it doesn't. Not at all. That would keep the virus around much much longer, meaning the quarantined people might have to stay quarantined until we get a vaccine or cure.

Doing what you suggest means we stop trying to control the spread and we just wait until the vaccine comes.

The people that would need to be quarantined would be pretty far reaching. We would be pulling out politicians, judges, CEOs, people that are pretty damn important.

So, no taking a large section of the population and isolating them for an undetermined time....until we cure it...... doesnt make more sense.

I get that it, common sense does come in handy. It's a great thing to have, but sometimes what seems like common sense isn't. Sometimes it's too complicated for common sense. Sometimes people like me and you.... people who don't actually know much about how this works.... sometimes we have to put our common sense aside and listen to the people that are involved in this. The people trained to know how these things work