LOCKED—-OT - Corona Virus, please explain

[blacklistedbully]

Much of this has already been stated, but here's my 2 cents:

1. Overall deaths are probably under-reported, but number of infected is without doubt vastly-under-reported. The number infected is known as the denominator when calculating mortality rate, therefore the actual mortality rate will significantly decrease.

2. US mortality rate for the most-deadly flu, the Spanish Flu, was a fraction of the global rate...1.1 % vs 4.6%.

3. The reported mortality rate for China (yes, I know it is suspect) in the first 10 days (January) was 17.3% of known cases. After 2/1 it was reported down to .7%. The current overall reported rate in China is still heavily-weighted by that initial outbreak where their doctors where still trying to figure out what they were dealing with. Many sick people were not treated in time because doctors were focusing only on the most critically ill. Had the less ill been treated sooner, much fewer would have died.

4. South Korea's mortality rate has been reported to be .57%. Germany's 0%.

5. If the mortality rate doesn't go down (it will, and probably drastically), based on existing rates and assuming the same number of people in the US get infected as did the flu last year, the 61,000 figure the OP mentioned would be more like 1,400,000. That in an estimated population in excess of 327,000,000. However, if after more accurate data is included the mortality rate drops to, for example, .5%, then using the OP's #'s, etc, would put the total deaths around 427,000.

6. We just don't really know what the real mortality rate is, and probably won't have anything close to a realistic number for quite a while. But history suggests the rate will ultimately be exponentially less than the numbers being reported now.

7. Keep in mind the mortality rates vary exponentially by age group & relative pre-exposure health of those infected.

 

[Bulldogg31]

This coronavirus panic is way way overplayed. The media has been irresponsible in its reporting using language like “killer virus” and “deadly illness” when less than 5% of the people who contract this virus even experience severe symptoms.

The WHO has recorded 3.4 per cent of people globally who contracted COVID-19 have died.

Nearly all of those people have been elderly and had pre-existing medical conditions which exacerbated their illness, such as cancer, asthma, diabetes or renal disease. The vast majority of coronavirus cases present with overwhelmingly mild symptoms, similar to the seasonal flu virus.

If you happen to contract coronavirus you can expect to run a fever, experience tiredness and a dry cough. Over 80 per cent of people with coronavirus recover without needing any special treatment.

 

[KeyserSoze1999]

Good job University of North Carolina...2015.*************

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[kired]

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[RockKickinSandPoundinSOB]

Why the panic? 11 people have died. Not trying to be cruel, but these 11 were close to death from anything at their age or physical condition. 61,000 people died from the flu last year in the US, that’s a normal year. No one panicked.

Also, the government just agreed to give away $8 billion of tax payer’s money to fight the corona virus. How does that work? Are we paying it to leave? Or are we giving most of that to pharma companies to research it and then profit off selling us the research we paid for? Forgive me if I’m being cynical, but I really don’t understand how throwing an absurd amount of money around is supposed to help. Maybe it’s because I don’t know where the money is going, but I haven’t been able to find that info. At least the state of MS got a nice volleyball court out of their wasted money, what will the US citizens get?

It’s a ******** cold that is killing those with lung issues, the elderly, and the immunocompromised. This is incredibly overhyped. Wash your hands and move on. This too shall pass.

 

[Raiderdawg.sixpack]

dust masks.... I wish I was in dust masks.

The run on respirators is crazy. Major organizations that need to provide N95s for front line health providers & laboratorians are already having purchasing caps and shortages. This is a legitimate problem and, in the panic, no one listens that 99% of people do not need them.

 

[jethreauxdawg]

I guess it’s just frustration

dude, just make whatever political statement you're trying to make and get it over with.

That nothing stimulates cooperation among elected officials like the opportunity to spend sums of money so large that they can easily hide all of the funds funneled to their individual causes. That’s both sides of the isle. Maybe that’s not true, please show me where the $8 billion will be wisely spent on “how to wash your hands” signs or some other worthy cause.

 

[PBRME]

https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/...urce=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

 

[StillTbonewannabe]

It is basically a very contagious flu. It isn't going to cause the Walking Dead or black plague but it could be really bad for old people and young kids just like the flu.

It just has a lot longer window for being contagious.

 

[Go Budaw]

The simple answer is people fear the unknown (many times, for good reason) and media and public policy makers always must act upon and respond to that fear by actively reporting information and putting regulations into effect.

In the case of the coronavirus, everyone is arguing about the actual mortality rate. But that’s only part of the equation. Let’s say for the sake of argument that the mortality rate is the same as the run-of-the-mill winter flu season. Even in that scenario, you’re still looking at an absolutely catastrophic global loss of life, because this thing is guaranteed to be some order of magnitude greater than the normal flu in terms of actual rate of infected individuals. This is because you have no vaccine, no mitigating / preventative drugs (like Tamiflu), and worst of all, absolutely no symptoms in a large number of people that are actively carrying the virus.

Let’s say the mortality rate is, again, the same as the flu but the infected rate is 5x the normal flu rate. Not an unreasonable assumption at all, given the above circumstances. That’s 300,000 American lives lost in a year’s time....or, 100 times the entire death toll of 9/11. All from an acute epidemic that was in all likelihood 100% totally and completely preventable. Of course, nobody knows yet if the mortality rate will be the same as the flu, or half as bad, or twice as bad. Nor does anyone know if the infection rate will be twice the flu rate, 5 times the flu rate, or worse. Anyone is entitled to believe its horrible or overblown or whatever. But nobody knows anything, and it’s the not knowing that is the scary part.

 

[Nunya.sixpack]

Whatever you do, don't lick any handrails or finish any stranger's drink at the bar.

 

[Bcash2]

And to top it off, even if they do come up with a vaccine, the damn thing’s gonna give me the autism! 17 it.

 

[tenureplan]

Preventable how?

 

[dalmuti]

during the seattle winter i rarely leave my basement. there's basically no change

 

[Dawgzillatron]

From what I have read the realistic death rate is much much lower. They don’t even really have test kits that are highly available. There are a good many people that already have the virus but are asymptomatic. For the healthy it operates similar to the flu. For the elderly and folks with a suspect immune system it is dangerous.

 

[harrybollocks]

Can someone who doesn't know what a novel virus is and how it affects the immune system and is largely ignorant of epidemiology, virology, what happens in an icu or why we have devices such as mechanical respirators, state with absolute certainty that COVID-19 is nothing to worry about because it's not as bad as the flu or it's like a common cold and is overhyped and we just need to wash our hands? (There are some good, reasonable comments on this thread, btw.) FYI, it likely will spread to Mississippi or where ever you live. Don't freak out. Just be prepared. Take it seriously and don't be one of those people who doesn't care, acts like it's not important, doesn't follow CDC guidelines and puts others in harms way (see super spreaders in northern Italy). You might be inconvenienced for a little while. Deal with it. We're likely going to be trying to save the lives of someone's parents and grandparents. That's important. And if it doesn't become as serious as some really intelligent epidemiologists say is possible (and computer models suggest) that's awesome. Just eat the extra snacks and canned goods you got from Sam's.

 

[dog12]

I am 67 with cancer and a compromised immune system. Looks like I am a prime candidate to die should I get the virus. Having said that, in December and January I had Type A and Type B influenza, and pneumonia. I beat that and I’ll beat COVID-19 should I contract it. I am a tough old Bulldog!!

Yes, you are.

I wish you 100% health and many happy days in the future.

Keep living the good life brother.

 

[mstateglfr]

The resident expert on everything weighs in. Typical day on the sixpack.

17 off.
This is a 2 page long thread with varied opinions and thoughts on the topic by a bunch of posters.
Singling me out for posting is obsessive. Dont be that.

 

[aTotal360]

Fear = Clicks = $$$

 

[preacher_dawg]

As much of my congregation is made up of ederly people, this virus scares the crap out of me. I'm praying for wisdom.

 

[Go Budaw]

Preventable how?

China had the genome structure within 2 weeks of the first reported case, which is pretty much unheard of. That lends credence to theories that either this was a containment issue of something they had already been studying, a deliberate leak, or something they had known about for quite awhile and kept under wraps from the rest of the world until it was too late.

 

[Raiderdawg.sixpack]

As much of my congregation is made up of ederly people, this virus scares the crap out of me. I'm praying for wisdom.

Help prepare your congregation just in case the virus spreads to your area. The CDC has specific guidelines for elderly on there at risk page. Nothing wrong with adding a few tips, like reminding about proper hand washing, in your morning announcements.

Make sure you church is properly cleaned before and after services - particularly high touch items. Use disinfectants that the EPA validated effective against SARS or is effective against influenza, and follow the label instructions for use. If the label says it kills 99.9% of bacteria & viruses, it’s going to work against this virus.

Perhaps go to the elbow bump instead of shaking hands. That’s what we started doing at work.

Good, proper hygiene will help protect against Coronavirus, influenza and many other viruses.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

Yeah I’m concerned about the elderly and cancer patients like the kids at St Jude.

 

[paindonthurt_]

But it’s real clear you just showed your intelligence.
3.4% is the death rate of CONFIRMED CASES.

Using simple logic, you should see that many cases go unconfirmed.

Death rate outside of China - 1.92%

An overwhelming majority of the deaths are happening to the elderly and older people with health issues.

Is it a big deal? Yes.
Should people and the media be losing their mind? No.

Panic is never a good thing.

 

[Raiderdawg.sixpack]

Wordwide Covid-19 tracking site

This may have been linked to or mentioned in the above thread, but I will put it here:

This site is the most update to date for tracking confirmed cases and death. Hopkins does a good job.

As of this morning (10:15 est): 102,472 confirmed cases worldwide; 3491 deaths.

 

[mstateglfr]

But it’s real clear you just showed your intelligence.
3.4% is the death rate of CONFIRMED CASES.

Using simple logic, you should see that many cases go unconfirmed.

Death rate outside of China - 1.92%

An overwhelming majority of the deaths are happening to the elderly and older people with health issues.

Is it a big deal? Yes.
Should people and the media be losing their mind? No.

Panic is never a good thing.

I listed a statistic that was released earlier yesterday and then agreed with another poster who stated that the statistics are of confirmed cases.
I also said the rare in more developed areas should be lower.


All that is correct.

 

[DAWG61]

Some rich ******** are about to make a shitload of money selling CVD testing kits to our Federal govt and to every hospital everywhere then slide some thicky envelopes to the media for fueling it. America real life gangsta **** documentary to film soon.

 

[57stratdawg]

There are also likely unassociated deaths, right? You can make the case that the test-confirmed sample size isn’t large enough to be representative right now.

Im not sure that uncertainty can lead you to the assumption the current mortality rate is overstated though - which seems to be your point.

 

[AROB44]

I am 67 with cancer and a compromised immune system. Looks like I am a prime candidate to die should I get the virus. Having said that, in December and January I had Type A and Type B influenza, and pneumonia. I beat that and I’ll beat COVID-19 should I contract it. I am a tough old Bulldog!!

I'm with you....I'm 75 and have a kidney transplant (going on 21 years). But, I'll do what I can to prevent getting it, but I'm not overly worried.

 

[NTDawg]

I’ve been driving around here longer than that and haven’t had a serious accident. However we have some really bad drivers that don’t understand safe driving distance and that problem is exponential when it rains

 

[BiscuitEater]

NPR reported this morning it has a 1.4% death rate. Flu has a death rate of 0.015. Kinda important to contain that, wouldn't you say?

Without getting political .. pay more attention to what the CDC is saying than NPR.

[FONT=&quot]So far, the new coronavirus has led to more than 100,000 illnesses and more than 3,000 deaths worldwide. But that's nothing compared with [/FONT]the flu[FONT=&quot], also called influenza. In the U.S. alone, the flu has caused an estimated 32 million illnesses, 310,000 hospitalizations and 18,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). [/FONT]

 

[codeDawg]

I have a 92 year old grandfather and 90 year old grandmother. I don’t want to be responsible for hosting and passing on an infection that could kill them or anyone else. The big deal is that if contained, this illness could go away. If not, it will become part of illnesses in the world like the common flu and literally hundreds of thousands to millions of people will die over time before they have to. Some otherwise healthy people will too.

The Spanish flu killed 50MM people worldwide. The mortality rates have been compared as close, but assume for a minute they are wrong and coronavirus is 1/10th as deadly. That’s still 5MM people who don’t have to die right now, but likely will if it’s not contained.

That’s why the freak out.

 

[PBRME]

Well said. It’s a minor inconvenience to limit exposure. I can live with it knowing I’m not putting myself in a situation to help spread this to high risk individuals.

 

[paindonthurt_]

It’s correct but it’s misleading as 17.

You either A. know that and have an agenda or B. don’t know that and are stupid.

 

[paindonthurt_]

I’d be happy to mail you some if serious. PM me.

 

[L4Dawg]

Probably because H1N1 killed about 0.01–0.03% of those infected, similar to what we generally call "the flu". Just a hunch*******

The original estimate in the early days of H1N1 was 10%.

 

[RockKickinSandPoundinSOB]

I have a 92 year old grandfather and 90 year old grandmother. I don’t want to be responsible for hosting and passing on an infection that could kill them or anyone else. The big deal is that if contained, this illness could go away. If not, it will become part of illnesses in the world like the common flu and literally hundreds of thousands to millions of people will die over time before they have to. Some otherwise healthy people will too.

The Spanish flu killed 50MM people worldwide. The mortality rates have been compared as close, but assume for a minute they are wrong and coronavirus is 1/10th as deadly. That’s still 5MM people who don’t have to die right now, but likely will if it’s not contained.

That’s why the freak out.

Lol The mortality rates are nowhere close to the Spanish Flu. First of all the Spanish flu was in 1918 and the data they have is limited at best. Basically they are 17ing guessing. This is nowhere close to Spanish flu. This is a cold and it will pass. Unfortunately the older you are you are risk of dying from everything because that is how it is. Your body is worn out and fragile. Nothing works as well as it used to including your immune system. I wouldn’t be concerned. Just have them wash their hands and live their life how they want to live it. None of us are getting out of this world alive.

 

[karlchilders.sixpack]

Watching the tube today,

There have some very good crowds at Basketball games,

Telling me that they ain’t scared.

 

[preacher_dawg]

Help prepare your congregation just in case the virus spreads to your area. The CDC has specific guidelines for elderly on there at risk page. Nothing wrong with adding a few tips, like reminding about proper hand washing, in your morning announcements.

Make sure you church is properly cleaned before and after services - particularly high touch items. Use disinfectants that the EPA validated effective against SARS or is effective against influenza, and follow the label instructions for use. If the label says it kills 99.9% of bacteria & viruses, it’s going to work against this virus.

Perhaps go to the elbow bump instead of shaking hands. That’s what we started doing at work.

Good, proper hygiene will help protect against Coronavirus, influenza and many other viruses.

Elbow bumping might not be the best. I've always heard if you have nothing else, the politest way to sneeze is on your sleeve

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

The Spanish Flu killed so many young people whereas the coronavirus targets the elderly and those with compromised immune systems.