LOCKED - How concerned about the COVID-19 are we?

[Walter White.sixpack]

On a scale of World War Z/The Stand to "everyone just wash your hands!" where are you on the continuum?

The US Market continues to suffer.
The UK is considering shutting down schools for months.
Japan is shutting schools and considering cancelling the Olympics
Tom Cruise is not going to film Mission Impossible VII in Italy.

I don't think the US is at "freak out level" yet but this next month is going to be interesting.

 

[stateu1]

On a scale of World War Z/The Stand to "everyone just wash your hands!" where are you on the continuum?

The US Market continues to suffer.
The UK is considering shutting down schools for months.
Japan is shutting schools and considering cancelling the Olympics
Tom Cruise is not going to film Mission Impossible VII in Italy.

I don't think the US is at "freak out level" yet but this next month is going to be interesting.

Just tip the person at the counter and Karma will take care of you**

 

[Shamoan]

i think its an overreaction. far more people will die of the Flu, which is typical. it disproportionately affects immunocompromised people (the elderly and very young) and in a nation where healthcare is the envy of all (for now), we are about as well prepared to handle it as any. add to that it is being politicized to the point of being weaponized and i think the fears are being stoked for political purposes. i sure picked a hell of a time to start investing, thats for sure.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

My elderly aunt & uncle are certainly concerned enough that they canceled their planned vacation which would have included two plane trips and a cruise.

 

[Arthur2478]

the elderly and very young

The elderly yes, but the young seem to not be as affected by it.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

 

[TrueMaroonGrind]

I'm more worried about my young kids. I wouldn't be that worried otherwise.

 

[patdog]

I would definitely not go on a cruise right now. And I would bring sanitizing wipes with me for a plane trip. Otherwise, the flu is a much bigger concern than this is.

 

[codeDawg]

All of this is an effort to contain the virus and hopefully eliminate it as was done with SARS. I think we are seeing that without shutting down the global economy, this one is likely to get out. The best we can probably hope for is a vaccine as quickly as possible, but that takes a lot of time.

What will happen when it does get out? A bunch of people will have a bad cold. Older people with poor health and other immunocompromised people will die from it at a higher rate than the flu. It’s certainly not a good situation, but it’s not like normally healthy people are gong to start dropping like flies.

Social media and certain news outlets are making it sound like this thing is going to wipe humanity off the map. That’s not the case. The mortality rate is somewhere around 2%. Still much higher than the flu and very serious, but not 20% as some people believe.

 

[dawglawz]

I love having another excuse to not get anywhere near a cruise ship.

I'm stocking up on medical marijuana and hoping it all blows over.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

You're not elderly and have a compromised immune system so you can say that. They're in the exact opposite situation.

 

[patdog]

Damn. I meant definitely NOT go on a cruise right now.

 

[KentuckyDawg13]

Posted before: https://www.bizjournals.com/boston/...dge-biotech-delivers-coronavirus-vaccine.html

Also, ironic it's an election year eh?

 

[Maroon Eagle]

Thanks for clarifying.

 

[57stratdawg]

I work in international financing. I am concerned it could have significant disruptions for domestic company’s supply chain. Especially piled on top of the existing tariffs.

 

[MagicDawg]

I was performing on a cruise ship earlier this month. Original itinerary was Guam to Hong Kong with stops in Saipan, Manila, Da Nang, Hanoi, and HK. Day before I left to go to Guam the itinerary was changed to end in Taipei.

After I boarded the ship (2/2), we missed Saipan due to winds. We then had every other port cancelled for the entire cruise, including our destination. We didn't know where we would end up for a couple of days. We had to have our temps checked twice daily in order to be allowed into Singapore, where we finally finished. I left the ship 3 days earlier than planned to get on home; I had already changed my flights multiple times to avoid Shanghai, Hong Kong, Taipei, etc. Flew home through Seoul two weeks before they got bad. The line is cancelling most of the cruises from now into late April and early May. This is not just "hype" -- it is a real illness with real risks and an extremely dangerous incubation period during which you're both asymptomatic and contagious. I was fortunate to get home, not have any quarantines or restrictions, and to get the heck out of Asia before the tipping point. I feel lucky that we never had a single port of call and I was probably able to get out and get home because I had not been to the Phillipines, Vietnam, or HK. I was on a safe ship and never touched land until I headed home.

I spoke at a hotel industry conference on Tuesday of this week and what I can tell you from multiple presentations there is that the virus is already having a massive effect on the industry, not just tourism but supply chain. The 2nd largest economy in the world is in a real predicament and there is going to be economic impact. Plus, I think it's highly likely that the virus has already spread through every major airport in the world.

It is not just SARS or Zika again. I am not in panic mode but I think it's likely every major US city will have some impact from this eventually. Best we can do is try to keep as healthy and strong as possible to fight it off naturally. Washing hands is great. Masks -- I wore them through all my travels but they don't do a thing against a virus, they just help you keep from touching your face. That's good, but as a barrier to the virus they are a waste of time.

Anyway, that's my experience from actually being in the South China Sea during February 2020.

 

[Nunya.sixpack]

cashed out my 401k, buried it in a coffee can in the backyard.
ordered 3 year supply of ready meals from Glenn Beck
about to shoot my dog to save on his supplies

 

[FQDawg]

a nation where healthcare is the envy of all...

Thanks for the lunchtime laugh.

 

[BigDog72.sixpack]

I purchase materials from China and I speak to my agent over there regularly. For some perspective, a small town in China has about 20 million people. Chew on that for a moment. My agent has been in lockdown for a good month and only one family member is allowed to leave to get essentials. Most of the factory workers come from the Wuhan region and go from there to the bigger cities to work. My supply line is currently in limbo (product is pretty much only made there) and I've got a good buddy who imports about 2-4 containers monthly and he's cut off as well and seriously effecting his business. When you look at all of the products that are say, on your desk, you'd be surprised how many are manufactured there. The market is reacting and I'm surprised it took this long. That same buddy of mine also has a college friend who works at CDC and he says it's a real problem. Death rates for flu are around .5% where this is above 3%. And they're still learning what it can and can't do. CDC says warmer weather will make it die down, but it will reappear in the fall when colder temperatures arrive. Also, he told him vaccine is at least a year away.

And now the Commucrats are trying to blame Trump for this. Give me a break!!!

 

[mstateglfr]

I purchase materials from China and I speak to my agent over there regularly. For some perspective, a small town in China has about 20 million people. Chew on that for a moment.

And now the Commucrats are trying to blame Trump for this. Give me a break!!!

I chewed on that first comment and spat it out. Probably 4 or 5 cities in the country have 20mm. I get the point you are trying to make(they have a **** ton of people and large cities), but no- small towns dont have 20mm.

As for the second comment, while the name calling is childish, I will agree with your point that its absurd to blame Trump. He is already a well established liar and flat out mean person, so there is no reason to attach him to **** like this and no benefit for them. Thry should be like Joe Friday- just the facts.

 

[mstateglfr]

I would definitely not go on a cruise right now. And I would bring sanitizing wipes with me for a plane trip. Otherwise, the flu is a much bigger concern than this is.

I cant imagine wanting to go on a cruise even in the best of times, much less during flu season and when this **** is growing around the globe.

 

[philduckworth]

It's reasonable to concerned, but not panicked. We are most likely going to deal with an outbreak in the US as we have already had a few cases reported. There won't be a vaccine until next year.

 

[mstateglfr]

Posted before: https://www.bizjournals.com/boston/...dge-biotech-delivers-coronavirus-vaccine.html

Also, ironic it's an election year eh?

You are confusing irony with statistical inevitability. Presidential elections are every 4 years. There is a 25% chance that an outbreak like this happens in an election year.

That isnt irony, Alanis.

 

[Dawg1976]

Shoot the wife before the dog. **

 

[Bulldogg31]

I can tell you I won’t be eating bats again anytime soon.

 

[patdog]

True. I could maybe see doing a river cruise or a cruise up the northwest coastline to Alaska, though. But not right now.

 

[Dawgbite]

Shoot the wife before the dog. **

Just to test this theory out, when you get home tonight, lock both the dog and the wife in a closet for a couple of hours. When you open the door to let them out, keep the one who is happy to see you and shoot the other.

 

[Dawgpile]

Clearing the shelves of milk, eggs, and bread as I type.

 

[Seinfeld]

I'm far from an expert on the subject, but I am coordinating business impact details on a daily basis for my manufacturing company, so I have had to quickly educate myself during the last month. Here's my 2 cents...

In terms of concern about simply contracting the virus, general risk for most of us will be very low. Don't get me wrong, recorded cases in the U.S. are almost assuredly going to escalate quickly, but they will primarily be near major ports and/or international airports. In other words, unless you live near one of those areas, your chances of contracting the virus are virtually nil. In addition, while there have been reports about the virus living on solid surfaces for up to 10 days, it does not survive for more than an hour in a low temp environment, and it can be quickly neutralized with common disinfectants like peroxide and lysol. So my general advice in this area would be to treat this just like you would a normal flu season. Limit travel, disinfect as much as possible, and don't be afraid to ask schools/clubs/churches what they're doing to disinfect. If nothing, bring a couple cans of lysol with you

Now, economic impact is a completely different story. The stock market will recover, but I can tell you that our plants in China are just now returning to near normal production levels, and our supply base throughout China is only ~ 60%. In a nutshell, if we go back to just before lunar new year holidays in China, we've lost about a month out of the year. Can we catch up? Sure, but our customers are experiencing similar impact, and even their forecasts are now being dialed down in some cases. So it's not really a question about can everyone catch up. It's a question about whether the order book will be the same as it was before all this. There are plenty of reports from other global companies essentially reporting the same, and it's just hard to tell how this will all play out at the moment. Especially now that Europe is experiencing a sharp increase in reported cases, speculation is that Iran is understating its actual numbers, and it's believed that the first case of the virus actually being transmitted while on U.S. soil(Sacramento, CA) was just yesterday.

Long story short, the answer to the questions depends on what you're concerned about, but I'll be the first to say that I think we(the U.S.) is a bit late to the party in terms of taking this very seriously.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

By the way, the cruise my aunt and uncle canceled was an Alaskan one.

 

[seshomoru]

This will spread rapidly because it's hard to tell if you have it. Could be a cold, could be no symptoms. The person you give it to might be the same. It can get passed rapidly without even causing concern, then an at risk person gets it and dies. SARS was contained much easier because when you got it, it was obvious. They were able to quarantine much more effectively.

 

[Herbert Nenninger]

We’re fortunate some Chinese grad student didn’t go home for winter break and then bring it back to a larger university before the travel bans went into place.

 

[GloryDawg]

After Trump asked Congress for 2.5 billion, Chuck Schumer made the statement, "Too little, too late" at that moment I became completely unconcerned about it.

 

[johnson86-1]

All of this is an effort to contain the virus and hopefully eliminate it as was done with SARS. I think we are seeing that without shutting down the global economy, this one is likely to get out. The best we can probably hope for is a vaccine as quickly as possible, but that takes a lot of time.

What will happen when it does get out? A bunch of people will have a bad cold. Older people with poor health and other immunocompromised people will die from it at a higher rate than the flu. It’s certainly not a good situation, but it’s not like normally healthy people are gong to start dropping like flies.

Social media and certain news outlets are making it sound like this thing is going to wipe humanity off the map. That’s not the case. The mortality rate is somewhere around 2%. Still much higher than the flu and very serious, but not 20% as some people believe.

2% is pretty catastrophic for a virus that is going to maybe infect 40 to 70% of the population and become endemic. Hopefully we will learn that the 2% number is greatly inflated by the lack of quality care and so many cases being untreated period. Even assuming this is more like the flu, it's going to be a major new drag for the cold and flu season to become cold, flu, and coronovirus season.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

So you think between and 128,000,000 - 224,000,000 Americans will ultimately be infected? 2% mortality rate would put deaths between 256,000 - 448,000????

That would be a monumental impact.

The 2% mortality rate is what we know based off data that is likely not even true coming from China. When this hits countries like Iran with weak healthcare systems, the mortality rate seems higher, but lower with countries with good healthcare systems.

I'm not sure what the mortality rate would be in the US, but I feel pretty good 40-70% of the US population isn't going to be infected like you suggested.

 

[thatsbaseball]

Trump wanted 8 bil but knew if he asked for that much the Dems would screech "too much" so asked for 2.5 knowing they would screech "not enough". Trump screws up a lot of stuff but the guy plays the Democratic party like a banjo.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

There's two types of worries: economic and health worries.

In terms of economic worries: this is a 6 for me on a scale of 1-10 because it should be temporary but widely felt across industries.

In terms of health worries for the US: I put it at a 3 bc death rate should be low, but if I had to guess the US could see cases in the 10s of thousands.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

He and Schumer are likely less than a billion apart then-- Schumer wanted 8.5. Warren introduced a bill to redirect border wall spending to make it 10 billion. Source: The Hill.

 

[mstateglfr]

Trump wanted 8 bil but knew if he asked for that much the Dems would screech "too much" so asked for 2.5 knowing they would screech "not enough". Trump screws up a lot of stuff but the guy plays the Democratic party like a banjo.

I stay away from news, so perhaps this is well known, but I didnt realize Trump wanted 8 billion. I read that 8.5 is what may/will be approved because the 2.5 amount was deemed not enough. Got a link? Ill put my usual news ban aside to read about how Trump wanted 8 billion.

 

[coach66]

Yep, the only good news is that young folks seem to be in pretty good shape

with this thing. 80 plus and weakened immune systems are taking the brunt at this time. Hopefully the warmer weather will calm all this down as some have suggested and
we can get a vaccine and anti-viral treatments that can mitigate the threat. I read that high humidity is the biggest factor in bringing this thing under control, we will have plenty of that soon enough.

 

[johnson86-1]

So you think between and 128,000,000 - 224,000,000 Americans will ultimately be infected? 2% mortality rate would put deaths between 256,000 - 448,000????

That would be a monumental impact.

The 2% mortality rate is what we know based off data that is likely not even true coming from China. When this hits countries like Iran with weak healthcare systems, the mortality rate seems higher, but lower with countries with good healthcare systems.

I'm not sure what the mortality rate would be in the US, but I feel pretty good 40-70% of the US population isn't going to be infected like you suggested.

I'm not saying I think that many will; I'm just repeating the range given by an epidemiologist from Harvard. No clue if he is being chicken little or not. But other epidemiologists such as Hong Kong's chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong university gave a range of 60% to 80%. Don't think he's predicting that but giving it as an upper range. Somebody who is a biostatician for the world health organization put a 2/3 number out there, again, not sure if he is actually making a prediction or giving what he considers a worst case scenario.
https://thehill.com/changing-americ...482794-officials-say-the-cdc-is-preparing-for
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...infection-could-reach-60-of-worlds-population
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ld-infect-two-thirds-of-globe-researcher-says

ETA: just googling and looking at headlines, it looks like 5-20% of people in the US get the flu each year (and that's with a vaccine with pretty good uptake) and up to 60% of people in the US catch the cold at least once a year (which I assume is actually a lot of different viruses lumped together?)