Mike Leach Talent at WSU

[messageboardsuperhero]

Looking back through 247’s team talent composite rankings, Leach has (on paper) had the worst talent in the Pac 12 in four of the last five seasons. They were second to last in talent in the other year, barely eeking our Oregon State. That is pretty much where WSU is historically versus their conference peers.

In that timespan he averaged 8.6 wins. 43 wins in five years. So he is averaging 8-9 wins per season, with a schedule that requires him to play AT LEAST 9 games every year against teams with theoretically more talent than him.

For reference, we have been around 10th out of 14 in the SEC over the same time span. Not great, but comparatively more talent against our peers than what Leach has had to work with at WSU. We also get an extra non-con game per year against a P5 team that we typically have a talent advantage over.

If he can implement his system here and keep our recruiting profile in the 20s, no reason to think he can’t be every bit as successful as Mullen.

https://247sports.com/Season/2019-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/

 

[MSUDC11]

Time will tell how much this will work, but there’s no denying that he’s a dang good coach and has elevated every program he’s been at.

 

[greenbean.sixpack]

Time will tell how much this will work, but there’s no denying that he’s a dang good coach and has elevated every program he’s been at.

Although the past two years didn't meet expectations, I don't see Leech having the quite same success as Mullen, but if he does, then we're all happy!

 

[OliveBranchDAWG]

That’s not the question though. It’s obvious he’s good at doing more with less. The question is will he be able to maintain or even improve our recruiting which has been in the 20–30 range. This will be the most important part of his tenure as to whether he’ll sink or swim in the SEC.

We can’t afford to take a step back in recruiting with how other SEC teams are performing in this area. We’ll never recruit consistently in the top 20, but I don’t think we can afford to recruit out of the top 30 on a yearly basis

 

[muhstate]

He'll have better talent overall at Mississippi State but week in week out we face tougher defenses so the upgrade in talent is probably going to be a wash imo

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

He maintained the recruiting profile at TTU and WSU. I think he actually recruited a little better at WSU than they have historically. 18 years of sample data as a P5 HC says he recruits at the same level as the historical average of each school.

Pine Box had a couple of classes at TTU that were better than the average Leach class, but since he left, they have fallen back into their normal range in the 30s and 40s.

He definitely needs to recruit well, as does every college coach. But we have zero reason to think we won’t stay in the 20s. We were in the 20s for most all of Mullen’s staff lazy recruiting tenure, and we were in the 20s when Moorhead was working his *** off here. We kind of are what we are from a ranking standpoint, as long as we keep our off field recruiting staff together.

 

[OliveBranchDAWG]

I’m not saying he can’t keep us in the 20’s in recruiting - just pointing out the main point of skepticism about the hire.

But this is why I think it’s important to hire Charlie Strong. Besides having a good reputation as a DC, he will be able to recruit MS defensive players. Combine that with Leach’s offense and we could be on to something.

 

[Nunya.sixpack]

I'm retarded

ffs, why can I not copy a link.

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

He'll have better talent overall at Mississippi State but week in week out we face tougher defenses so the upgrade in talent is probably going to be a wash imo

Do we though? We play 3 cupcakes, another OOC team that is usually mediocre, Arkansas and Ole Miss have sucked on defense lately. Kentucky has gotten solid but far from elite, and outside of UGA, Florida, and maybe Tennessee, there aren’t any elite defenses in the East.

Yes Bama, Auburn, and LSU are on another level than what Leach is used to- especially at the line of scrimmage. A&M is getting there too. But the rest of our schedule is not going to be head and shoulders above the Pac 12 defensively, IMO.

Let’s not forget that Leach brought a very average WSU team into Jordan Hare early in his tenure and took Auburn to the brink in 2013. Yes, the same Auburn team that almost won it all.

 

[RockKickinSandPoundinSOB]

Although the past two years didn't meet expectations, I don't see Leech having the quite same success as Mullen, but if he does, then we're all happy!

I think everyone sometimes misremembers Mullen’s success. Mullen’s success was 5-7 to 8-4 during the regular season with 1 outlier 10 win season thrown in. Mullen success is now the standard. We just shitcanned a guy that deserved it for holding serve with Mullen success. I think Leach will have Mullen success and with potential for more success against top 25.

 

[hatfieldms]

He has maintained everywhere else. Not sure why he won’t here

 

[campshelbydog842003]

He'll have better talent overall at Mississippi State but week in week out we face tougher defenses so the upgrade in talent is probably going to be a wash imo

he will face 3 defenses a year better than what he faced in the big 12 or the pac 12. The rest of the time he will be playing against the same type players he always has been except he will be doing it with a top 25 talent level instead of a top 50 talent level.

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

Long post, but this is really interesting. Obviously the 247 talent composite does not always tell the whole story but it is a good starting point to see the talent of each team from 30,000 feet.

While it is true that the talent upgrade he gets coming here will be somewhat offset by the superior talent of the teams in the SEC, it is not offset proportionally. Meaning, he will have significantly more talent here compared to his SEC peers than he did at WSU against his Pac 12 peers.

WSU had a talent advantage in only 3 of the 13 games they played this year. For reference, we had a talent advantage in 8 games we played this year. We finished with the same record as WSU. What is even more impressive is that level of overachievement was actually a DOWN year for Leach. Here is the breakdown year over year going back to 2015 (as far back as 247’s team composite rankings go):

2015 - Leach had a talent advantage in only 2 of 13 games played. Finished with a 9-4 record.
2016 - Leach had a talent advantage in only 2 of 13 games played. Finished with an 8-5 record.
2017 - Leach had a talent advantage in only 2 of 13 games played. Finished with a 9-4 record.
2018 - Leach finally had a talent advantage in a whopping 4 of 13 games played. Finished with an 11-2 record.
2019 - Leach had a talent advantage in 3 of 13 games played. Finished 6-7.

Comparatively we had a talent advantage in 7 games in 2015, 6 games in 2016, 6 games in 2017, 7 games in 2018, and 8 games in 2019.

So Leach is coming from a place that has a talent advantage about 2-4 times per season, to a place that has a talent advantage 6-8 times per season. Yes, he is going to be against teams with better players than what he faced in the Pac 12, but he will be in a MUCH better position to overcome that here than he was at WSU.

 

[The Situation]

That’s not the question though. It’s obvious he’s good at doing more with less. The question is will he be able to maintain or even improve our recruiting which has been in the 20–30 range. This will be the most important part of his tenure as to whether he’ll sink or swim in the SEC.

We can’t afford to take a step back in recruiting with how other SEC teams are performing in this area. We’ll never recruit consistently in the top 20, but I don’t think we can afford to recruit out of the top 30 on a yearly basis

A lot of this has to do with US i.e. fans. We need to do our part, buy tickets and pack out the stadium. Recruiting gets much easier when we are all in.

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

Leach went 12-1 in the last five seasons against teams that he actually had a talent advantage over. The vast majority of those games were blowouts. The one loss against a team with less “on paper” talent was last month when WSU got beat by an 11-2 Air Force team.

ETA: LOL, never mind he actually went 10-3 in those games. WSU had a couple of WTF losses to Eastern Washington and Portland State.

 

[BossDawg78]

Although the past two years didn't meet expectations, I don't see Leech having the quite same success as Mullen, but if he does, then we're all happy!

Past two years? At Washington State? He was 11-2 and 6-7. I can definitely see how 6-7 wouldn't meet expectations, but we'd most certainly be happy with 11-2.

 

[G-Dawg]

A lot of this has to do with US i.e. fans. We need to do our part, buy tickets and pack out the stadium. Recruiting gets much easier when we are all in.

Well, I don't know if Leach will work out, but we went from a half to less than half empty stadium in September to a packed house. If nothing else, the trajectory of the fan base is turned around.

 

[HughJazz]

Watch this video of offensive only plays for WSU vs Auburn in 2013. Lots of 2 back sets which we never saw from Joe Mo. The wide splits create huge holes for the RB but also many tackles for loss. Link:

https://youtu.be/I0dxwNV96Uk

 

[greenbean.sixpack]

Past two years? At Washington State? He was 11-2 and 6-7. I can definitely see how 6-7 wouldn't meet expectations, but we'd most certainly be happy with 11-2.

The last two years at MSU didn't meet our expectations.

 

[greenbean.sixpack]

I think everyone sometimes misremembers Mullen’s success. Mullen’s success was 5-7 to 8-4 during the regular season with 1 outlier 10 win season thrown in. Mullen success is now the standard. We just shitcanned a guy that deserved it for holding serve with Mullen success. I think Leach will have Mullen success and with potential for more success against top 25.

But you can't discount that 10 win season. SloMo inherited a 10 win team (with more talent that Mullen ever had), but underachieved by at least 2 games. Mullen may have won 11 with that team. So SloMo didn't hold serve considering talent and expectations.

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

Watch this video of offensive only plays for WSU vs Auburn in 2013. Lots of 2 back sets which we never saw from Joe Mo. The wide splits create huge holes for the RB but also many tackles for loss. Link:

https://youtu.be/I0dxwNV96Uk

Interesting to see those 2 back sets, and I think he is even using some tight ends around the goal line. That may not be Leach’s ideal personnel, but it seems to indicate that he could be flexible for the first couple of years here until he gets his roster set up how he wants it.

And yes, the wide splits seem to lead to either a big running lane or a defender getting free. That’s why it’s so important to pass to set up the run in this offense. It will pretty much be the opposite of what we’ve been doing at MSU since as long as any of us can remember. We will probably be around a 70/30 run/pass ratio next year.