Offensive Production - Somewhat surprising stat

[Seinfeld]

Through 4 games, MSU is averaging 414 yds/gm of total offense. This is the lowest output since 2012 in spite of it arguably being the weakest opening 4-game stretch during that same period

All due to injuries, suspensions, and freshmen?

 

[TheStateUofMS]

I haven't looked, but I'd be surprised if this was our weakest opening 4 games since 2012...

I'm actually pleasantly surprised with the execution of the offense. We're seeing what it can be with a QB who makes correct reads. Hill is getting a ton of touches and our QBs are effective passing the ball and we should get better going forward the more comfortable we get.

All the folks last year saying, "this offense won't work in the SEC," don't know what they're talking about. It'll definitely work if you have the personnel to run it, which most important is a smart QB who can make quick decisions and can be a threat with his feet. No doubt Joe has brought in players to accomplish this.

My only question is if he message really gets through to the players because of all the WTF moments we see. Some of it is self inflicted like not calling a timeout when you have 3 of them right before the end of the half with the play clock at zero. Instead of calling the time out, we snap it and we turn the ball over. Things like that need to be and can be corrected. Lots of players are frequently out of position on D as well this year, which could be because of new players.

BUT, the suspensions to players like Gay, Autry and Murphy are absolute killers. There's no denying that. We'll never know how good this team could have been because of that. Maybe in the bowl game we could potentially see it.

 

[Nunya.sixpack]

uniform selection and game start time are the two affecting that stat.**

 

[Msubulldogfan1]

Part of it is offense, but one factor imo is the defense. I don’t know the numbers, but the defense being on the field longer and allowing some rush yards...I feel like our offense hasn’t had as many opportunities as years prior.

I’m too lazy to look it up, but I’d be curious to see how many plays we are averaging this year vs years past.

 

[kired]

I would guess a lot of it is due to using two QBs who were not enrolled here prior to 2019.

And while USM and ULL aren't anything special --- they also aren't Alcorn St or some of the other schools we've normally opened up with... Charleston Southern, Northwestern St, etc.

 

[MSUDC11]

Part of it is offense, but one factor imo is the defense. I don’t know the numbers, but the defense being on the field longer and allowing some rush yards...I feel like our offense hasn’t had as many opportunities as years prior.

I’m too lazy to look it up, but I’d be curious to see how many plays we are averaging this year vs years past.

Don't know about number of plays, but we have averaged 6.2 yards per play both of the last two years.

2017 - 5.5
2016 - 6.1
2015 - 6.5
2014 - 6.7
2013 - 5.9
2012 - 5.9

That tells me we are running fewer plays now in all likelihood, but in terms of yards per play, we're averaging more now than every year under Mullen except for the two Dak years.

I get that the numbers are what they are, but generally speaking I haven't had many issues with our offense so far. We'll play better defenses in the near future so the jury is certainly still out, but we seem to have improved in the two areas that were our biggest problems last season: passing efficiency and committing to giving Kylin the ball.

 

[Bulldogg31]

Agree with this, plus the fact we’ve already had a QB change for part of two games and a new starter in the fourth.

 

[Cousin Jeffrey]

Yards per game can be deceptive. I think yards per play is a better stat. There are fewer factors beyond your control that affect this.

In terms of yards per play, this year's number (6.25) is the 3rd highest since 2012 and highest since 2015.

 

[BrunswickDawg]

Part of it is offense, but one factor imo is the defense. I don’t know the numbers, but the defense being on the field longer and allowing some rush yards...I feel like our offense hasn’t had as many opportunities as years prior.

I’m too lazy to look it up, but I’d be curious to see how many plays we are averaging this year vs years past.

We are second in the SEC in Time of Possession - up about a minute per game over last year, and higher then every year but 2017 over the last 10 years.
We are tenth in the SEC in Total Plays - we were 11th last year, and have been all over the map over the past 10 years.

 

[Go Budaw]

Interesting that you selected yards per game instead of the most important stat, actual scoring offense.

In 2016, we averaged 28.5 ppg in the first 4 games, with an 8th year head coach, a 3rd year QB, and all players on that roster recruited, coached, and developed by that 8th year coach. We also averaged 433 yards per game, less than 20 yards per game more than 2019.

In 2019, we are averaging 32 ppg in the first 4 games, with a 2nd year head coach, 2 different first-year starters at QB, one of those two QB’s who has taken over 50% of the snaps is a true freshmen, and only about 10% of the regular rotation players were recruited, signed, and developed by the current coach.

The big common denominator in those 2 seasons (2016 and 2019) is that they were both years involving a new QB taking over after the graduation of a multi-year starter. And the data clearly shows this year’s offense holding its own against the 2016 version that had a whole hell of a lot fewer excuses for subpar production.

 

[Hypnodawg]

There isn't a more meaningless stat than TOP

 

[TheStateUofMS]

don't forget about the suspensions!!!

 

[Drebin]

Interesting that you selected yards per game instead of the most important stat, actual scoring offense.

In 2016, we averaged 28.5 ppg in the first 4 games, with an 8th year head coach, a 3rd year QB, and all players on that roster recruited, coached, and developed by that 8th year coach. We also averaged 433 yards per game, less than 20 yards per game more than 2019.

In 2019, we are averaging 32 ppg in the first 4 games, with a 2nd year head coach, 2 different first-year starters at QB, one of those two QB’s who has taken over 50% of the snaps is a true freshmen, and only about 10% of the regular rotation players were recruited, signed, and developed by the current coach.

The big common denominator in those 2 seasons (2016 and 2019) is that they were both years involving a new QB taking over after the graduation of a multi-year starter. And the data clearly shows this year’s offense holding its own against the 2016 version that had a whole hell of a lot fewer excuses for subpar production.

PPG is not an accurate way to determine anything. Not all drives are created equally, and not all scores come from sustained offensive drives.

 

[Go Budaw]

PPG is not an accurate way to determine anything. Not all drives are created equally, and not all scores come from sustained offensive drives.

The same concept applies to yards per game, and you cannot argue that scoring points is somehow less important than accumulating yards. And in the case of these two sets of data, each season (2016 and 2019) featured 1 defensive score in the first 4 games, so that is a wash.

When you look at the total picture, scoring offense is about 9% higher in 2019 than 2016, Yards per play is about 2% higher in 2019 than 2016, and yards per game is about 5% higher in 2016 than 2019. There is no way you can objectively look at all the data and say we are not at least performing at the same offensive level as the first 4 games in 2016, with a roster unrecruited by the current coach and mostly unmatched to his system, as well a true freshmen QB taking most of the snaps.

ETA: Average 2016 Total D / Scoring D end of season rankings for the first 4 opponents was 76.25 and 79.5, respectively. Through 4 games in 2019, average Total D / Scoring D rankings are 59.25 and 57.5. So it is most definitely NOT the weakest first 4 opponents since 2012, either.

 

[Msubulldogfan1]

Part of it is offense, but one factor imo is the defense. I don’t know the numbers, but the defense being on the field longer and allowing some rush yards...I feel like our offense hasn’t had as many opportunities as years prior.

I’m too lazy to look it up, but I’d be curious to see how many plays we are averaging this year vs years past.

Just looked it up, we average 68.5 plays per game this year vs 66 last year. So that definitely ain’t it.

 

[Rupert Jenkins]

In 17 we averaged 418.6 ypg. Too many variables to base things just on stats. Depends on your defense somewhat. If we had last years defense we get ahead and then run the clock out.

 

[mount lefroy]

I haven't looked, but I'd be surprised if this was our weakest opening 4 games since 2012...

I'm actually pleasantly surprised with the execution of the offense. We're seeing what it can be with a QB who makes correct reads. Hill is getting a ton of touches and our QBs are effective passing the ball and we should get better going forward the more comfortable we get.

All the folks last year saying, "this offense won't work in the SEC," don't know what they're talking about. It'll definitely work if you have the personnel to run it, which most important is a smart QB who can make quick decisions and can be a threat with his feet. No doubt Joe has brought in players to accomplish this.

My only question is if he message really gets through to the players because of all the WTF moments we see. Some of it is self inflicted like not calling a timeout when you have 3 of them right before the end of the half with the play clock at zero. Instead of calling the time out, we snap it and we turn the ball over. Things like that need to be and can be corrected. Lots of players are frequently out of position on D as well this year, which could be because of new players.

BUT, the suspensions to players like Gay, Autry and Murphy are absolute killers. There's no denying that. We'll never know how good this team could have been because of that. Maybe in the bowl game we could potentially see it.

And yet you’ve given up on this coach.