Let’s talk about Auburn

[RPOdawg]

National rankings: (DEFENSE)

Rushing defense - 20th

Scoring defense - 23rd

Total defense - 35th

Redzone defense - 36th

TFLs and Sacks- 32nd

Fumbles recovered - 65th

Passing defense - 67th

Interceptions - 111th

(OFFENSE)

62nd in total offense
116th in passing
16th in rushing

After looking at these stats it’s pretty apparent that there’s a false perception out there that Auburn has an elite defense. Its just not so. I think the game plan for us on defense has to be to stack the box and dare Bo Nix to beat you throwing the football. If he does, then you tip your cap. For us to have a shot of an upset in this game we have to have all hands on deck. You play autry, gay, Murphy, etc. Offensively, we ran the ball down their throat last year. 300 + yards. We’ll need to try to do that again. I expect them to load the box and dare us to beat them through the air as well. They’ll be pumped up and it’ll be a tough environment for us, but I’m excited to see how we play. I think it will be a close game. LFG

 

[Beerbully]

We can put 8 in the box, but it won't matter if they don't tackle. Like that fourth down last week, where our guy hugged the receiver and then let him go for a first down. Lord help...

But yes, you are correct about Auburn's D...I think Schrader & Hill will move the ball on them.

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

I think our offense could be feisty against their defense. Their secondary does not impress me (but of course neither do our wideouts).

But the problem will be when they have the ball. I fully expect them to run for A LOT of yards on us.

 

[Nunya.sixpack]

I'm hoping that garrett realizes that osirus is on the field. didn't seem like he was too interested in getting the ball to the big O.

 

[Go Budaw]

I think our offense could be feisty against their defense. Their secondary does not impress me (but of course neither do our wideouts).

But the problem will be when they have the ball. I fully expect them to run for A LOT of yards on us.

This is true. We are 64th against the run, giving up 143 YPG and almost 4.5 YPC. That is in 4 games against not the greatest competition. Auburn is 20th, giving up just 89.5 YPG, and just 3.1 YPC against a schedule that includes 2 legit Top 25 teams and a pretty feisty Tulane team. Football hasn’t changed, running the ball and stopping the run are still probably the biggest indicators of success (or lack thereof), and Auburn has a big advantage.

 

[Dawgtruc]

National rankings: (DEFENSE)

Rushing defense - 20th

Scoring defense - 23rd

Total defense - 35th

Redzone defense - 36th

TFLs and Sacks- 32nd

Fumbles recovered - 65th

Passing defense - 67th

Interceptions - 111th

(OFFENSE)

62nd in total offense
116th in passing
16th in rushing

After looking at these stats it’s pretty apparent that there’s a false perception out there that Auburn has an elite defense. Its just not so. I think the game plan for us on defense has to be to stack the box and dare Bo Nix to beat you throwing the football. If he does, then you tip your cap. For us to have a shot of an upset in this game we have to have all hands on deck. You play autry, gay, Murphy, etc. Offensively, we ran the ball down their throat last year. 300 + yards. We’ll need to try to do that again. I expect them to load the box and dare us to beat them through the air as well. They’ll be pumped up and it’ll be a tough environment for us, but I’m excited to see how we play. I think it will be a close game. LFG

They've played Oregon and A&M. Maybe both overrated, but certainly no patsies.

 

[RPOdawg]

I think our offense could be feisty against their defense. Their secondary does not impress me (but of course neither do our wideouts).

But the problem will be when they have the ball. I fully expect them to run for A LOT of yards on us.

Yeah that’s why I stack the box (kinda like how Kansas State did against us), pray we can wrap up and dare them to beat us in the air. Nix is pretty bad at the deep ball. This is a game where nobody is really giving us a chance so if I’m Shoop I’m throwing the kitchen sink at the 18 year old Bo Nix. Confuse the hell out of him and let the chips fall where they may.

 

[patdog]

Those stats have to be taken in context with their strength of schedule, which is #7. They're not a top 10 team to me, but on the road, I just don't see us winning this game. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[dorndawg]

We have 4 more winnable games on the schedule and this ain't one of them ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ [h=1][/h]

 

[BigDog72.sixpack]

RPO, as much as those stat's show that AU is beatable, it's being played in Jordan-Hare. Tough place to win, especially against those cheatin' bastards. AU has done incredible things to the competition in order to win, and I'm not talking about playing football. Listening into headsets; wake up calls at 3 am to top opposing players at Montgomery hotels by AU fans working at team hotels(yes this happened); helium balls (had to throw that one in there! ha); and I'm sure there's more. If it was a 11 am start, I'd like our chances. Auburn played a helluva game last week at aTm, and I'm praying for a letdown. But that stadium will be rocking. If that offense of theirs finds an identity, look out. I've been to many games there and left early (remember when they had Cadillac, Ronnie Williams, and Brandon Jacobs!!!). We can't afford to go 3 and out for a quarter or half. We must move the ball and control the clock. Joe pulls a win out of there this weekend, he'll have a statement game and that could start this team to heading in a huge, upward direction. Lose and we'll have a week to get ready for Tennessee and probably muddle to a 7 win season, which won't be a cake walk.

 

[$altyDawg]

And Gus comes up with creative ways to run jet sweeps and end arounds to get the ball in the hands of his speed backs when defenses get overly aggressive and over pursue. We have to play aggressively to stop the run, but more importantly we have to play with discipline because of Gus's often mentioned "eye candy".

 

[blacklistedbully]

They have played Oregon, aTm & a surprisingly good Tulane.

They held Oregon to 21 points, 17 pts below their ppg. Not counting the AU game, Oregon has averaged 51 ppg.

aTm has just one other loss, 24-10 @ #1 Clemson. Mond is capable of being hot or cold. Mond threw for 335 yds vs AU, just 32 yards over his average, but it is significant that 193 of those yards came after AU was up 21-3 with just 2:38 left in the 3rd Q. Don't you think it is likely AU gave up many more yards late in the game due to the game being well in hand? I didn't watch the game, but typically with a big lead late, the defense will back off their coverage to guard more against quick strikes, allowing completions underneath.

AU may or may not have an elite defense, but I think it is a mistake to rely too much on their stats to date.

 

[llmsudawg]

My take is that we are going to have to limit Auburn's touches period. Auburn can't get the ball 4 times each half. Need to control the ball and come away with 7 every possession.

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

1. I don’t know why UK even attempted a forward pass against us.
2. More of the blame on tackling falls on our LBs and DBs as well as NCAA limits on contact in practice. The DL is playing a little better each game.
3. I expect Auburn to run for 200 plus yards on us.
4. We have to get Kylin on the edge more.
5. We can’t have a breakdown on Special Teams(this really scares me).
6. I expect SEC refs to give Auburn Bama treatment this weekend.

 

[bulldogbaja]

After the last drive of the KSU game, I doubt that O. Mitchell is Shrader's (or anyone else's) favorite right now.

 

[Beerbully]

They've played Oregon and A&M. Maybe both overrated, but certainly no patsies.

We've played KY and KS. Not sure how those two would fair with Oregon or A&M, but I believe they're both capable of beating Auburn on any given day. Maybe not Saturday night at Auburn, but on most other given days.

 

[philduckworth]

AU's D-line is elite.

If we don't play Autry and Gay, there's no point in discussing this game. We cant win without those 2 b/c AU will gash us up the middle. JoMo really put us in a bind playing Autry against USM.

 

[blacklistedbully]

BTW, if we take out the 193 passing yards Mond got late, after the game was determined, take the remainder, divide by 3 to come up with an approximate quarterly average of less than 50 yards and extrapolate that over 4 quarters, we get less than 200 yards passing. I'd argue that is a more telling indicator because it removes what are most likely garbage statistics, giving us a better indicator of how vulnerable they are (or are not) when the game is still in the line, and they are still playing their non-prevent defense.

Specifically, this is how Mond's passing went as the game progressed:

1st Q - 84 yards, 41 of it on one play.
2nd Q - 60 yards
3rd Q (halftime adjustments?) - 0 yards until 2:38 left and AU up 21-3, then 51 total for 3rd Q, AU gives up the TD, but takes the game into the 4th Q & follows with another TD to extend the lead back to 18 pts midway through the 4th.
4th Q - 142 yds. Game already decided. These yards are a meaningless stat.

 

[campshelbydog842003]

AU's D-line is elite.

If we don't play Autry and Gay, there's no point in discussing this game. We cant win without those 2 b/c AU will gash us up the middle. JoMo really put us in a bind playing Autry against USM.

I still can’t believe he did that with Autry.

 

[stateu1]

1. I don’t know why UK even attempted a forward pass against us.

This all day. Especially on 1st and 10 and they repeatedly did it.

 

[blacklistedbully]

Do we know how many more games total they can play? I'm thinking we get Gay for 3 more games and Autry for 2. If we get both for just 2 more games, do we use them both in the same 2 games, and if so, which two?

I'm thinking both for Ole Miss (can't take unnecessary chances with the Egg Bowl), but do we use them both for AU or aTm as the other? Can we get by without them together for UT & UPig? Not waste them on Bama or LSU?

Can we and do we think about suspending them for 1/2 games? Do NCAA rules allow us to, say, start them in a game and if it's a blowout either way by halftime, list them as suspended for the 2nd half?

 

[TheStateUofMS]

They played two likely NFL QBs in Herbert and Mond. It's not like they've played only cupcakes.

Having said that, those are pedestrian stats, but I know for a fact they have several elite players on defense. I didn't watch a lot of the TAMU game, but when I did, they tackled very soundly and didn't give up much YAC like we gave up against UK.

I'm optimistic though. I'm going into the game thinking we can win. I know we can win actually. We'll just have to see how the game goes.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

It all comes down to getting penetration. Where's Myles Hartfield when you need em?*

 

[TheStateUofMS]

We have 4 more winnable games on the schedule and this ain't one of them ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I don't think you know what the definition of winnable is

 

[RPOdawg]

They played two likely NFL QBs in Herbert and Mond. It's not like they've played only cupcakes.

Having said that, those are pedestrian stats, but I know for a fact they have several elite players on defense. I didn't watch a lot of the TAMU game, but when I did, they tackled very soundly and didn't give up much YAC like we gave up against UK.

I'm optimistic though. I'm going into the game thinking we can win. I know we can win actually. We'll just have to see how the game goes.

Yeah one thing that stood out to me was their open field tackling in the A&M game. They are really good at that.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

1. I don’t know why UK even attempted a forward pass against us.
2. More of the blame on tackling falls on our LBs and DBs as well as NCAA limits on contact in practice. The DL is playing a little better each game.
3. I expect Auburn to run for 200 plus yards on us.
4. We have to get Kylin on the edge more.
5. We can’t have a breakdown on Special Teams(this really scares me).
6. I expect SEC refs to give Auburn Bama treatment this weekend.

Agree wholeheartedly with all your points ESPECIALLY #6. You can book that one. Remember the Sweat strip sack fumble recovery that's likely a TD the refs called incomplete?

 

[archdog]

And Gus comes up with creative ways to run jet sweeps and end arounds to get the ball in the hands of his speed backs when defenses get overly aggressive and over pursue. We have to play aggressively to stop the run, but more importantly we have to play with discipline because of Gus's often mentioned "eye candy".

They are not creative. He just hands the ball to them when they motion through. I have no idea why we can hand the ball to Guidry at least 3 times a game.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

I still can’t believe he did that with Autry.

The explanation given was with injuries on the OL, James Jackson had to move back to OL for like the 5th time and we needed another DT, so we played Autry. Not saying it's right, that's what Rosebowl and Paul have said was the reasoning though.

 

[RocketDawg]

Agree wholeheartedly with all your points ESPECIALLY #6. You can book that one. Remember the Sweat strip sack fumble recovery that's likely a TD the refs called incomplete?

No, but I remember the first down that was about 2 inches short.

 

[TrapGame.sixpack]

http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/team/_/stat/total/position/defense

Auburn is #55 in total defense here. And we're #73.

 

[dorndawg]

Games that we have a shot at winning. Is there some other definition?

 

[TheStateUofMS]

I don't understand why we have a 0% chance to win this game.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

No, but I remember the first down that was about 2 inches short.

We were down 7-0 or it was 0-0 but we stripped the QB as he tried to throw it and it bounced perfectly into Sweats hands which would have been an easy scoop and score but they blew the play dead as incomplete which isn't reviewable. They should have let the play run then reviewed it but they didn't and we were screwed out of 7 points.

It was a very clear fumble or at the very least a very clear let the play finish then review if needed. Incompetence or home cooking by the refs. We got blown out anyway, but still it was a big momentum play early in the game.

 

[philduckworth]

Autry has 2 games left. Gay has 3.

Assuming Autry plays vs Ole Miss, you only have him for 1 game. You have to choose between @AU, @UT, LSU or @A&M. I would want to play him with Gay for sure.

I have changed my mind a dozen times on this, but I would play:

Gay vs UT, OM, and LSU
Autry vs OM and LSU

We get LSU at home, their defense isn't that great, let's make that game interesting.

 

[patdog]

I saw that explanation. It was still a stupid move. Moorhead panicked a bit and wasted him in a game he shouldn't have. To be fair, I think a lot of other coaches would have made the same mistake if they were in his shoes though.

 

[philduckworth]

I saw that explanation. It was still a stupid move. Moorhead panicked a bit and wasted him in a game he shouldn't have. To be fair, I think a lot of other coaches would have made the same mistake if they were in his shoes though.

Yeah, you see NFL coaches make horrible decision all the time. I think they get in the weeds with so many other things that they struggle with common sense decisions. They should have realized we could have beaten USM with Dedrick Thomas playing DT, but they don't think that way.

 

[dorndawg]

Well, me either but here we are.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

Gotta give us at least a 20% chance to win, no?

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/team/_/stat/total/position/defense

Auburn is #55 in total defense here. And we're #73.

Considering who each of us have played so far, that's frightening.

 

[philduckworth]

Gotta give us at least a 20% chance to win, no?

With Autry, Gay, and Stevens I would say yes. Without any of those guys, I would say 5%.