2018 :: 8-4 :: Two Dropped Passes :: Emotions/Expectations :: Coaches

[Walter White.sixpack]

We all know there was (and still is for some) a lot of consternation about going 8-4 last year with the number one defense in the land. We all get it. It was a little frustrating huh? Then you have the people taking about coaching and running vs passing and offensive schemes and quarterback systems and blah blah blah.

But those two passes... The team was two dropped passes from 10-2 and a different bowl game. Those two passes were pretty much on the money and catchable and would have made the difference in soooo many emotions and opinions right now, huh?

• So if those two passes were caught, would the folks doubting if Moorhead can run the team have a different opinion now?
• If they were caught would the Negative Nancies think JoMo knew what he was doing?
• If they were caught and the team is 10-2 might it have affected recruiting any?
• What would expectations be for 2019 if those those two passes were caught

I know 2018 was a little frustrating. He did make some freshman mistakes, no doubt. But Joe and staff seem to have their bearings locked in and are making strong movements forward now.

 

[Walter White.sixpack]

Mullen's second season at MSU was 8-4.
He was two or three plays away from 10-2 as well.
But he was also two plays away from 6-6.
Football is a funny game sometimes.

 

[Drebin]

Our defense gave up 12 touchdowns all year, and we lost five games, as my friends like to remind me when I find myself getting a little wool about this season. I think that's a sobering reality that we all should hang on to as we temper our expectations.

 

[maroonmania]

Our defense gave up 12 touchdowns all year, and we lost five games, as my friends like to remind me when I find myself getting a little wool about this season. I think that's a sobering reality that we all should hang on to as we temper our expectations.

16 total points in our 4 regular season losses. It can't be emphasized enough how bad our offense was last year against upper level defenses even with the TD stolen from us in the Bama game. Only game last year you could say the defense let us down somewhat was the Outback Bowl.

 

[Drebin]

16 total points in our 4 regular season losses. It can't be emphasized enough how bad our offense was last year against upper level defenses even with the TD stolen from us in the Bama game. Only game last year you could say the defense let us down somewhat was the Outback Bowl.

Against LSU, the defense allowed one touchdown drive, and it was three yards on three plays after a Nick Fitzgerald interception. That was pretty much a microcosm of the season. We held them to 239 yards of total offense on their home field and lost by sixteen points.

 

[o_dawgnabit]

Even if those two passes were caught, it still wouldn’t have changed our perception on the offense last year IMO. It was still atrocious. However, it probably would have changed our recruiting, what media thinks of us, and what we think of JoMo’s future. Everyone would all be saying “In his first year of an sec coach and with players that don’t fit his scheme, he was able to pull out 10 wins”. And instead, we are all now saying that he underachieved with the one of the best defenses in recent SEC history.

All that being said, I’m naturally a more optimistic fan than pessimistic so I’m hopeful that Joe will figure it out once he gets his QB. His coaching history tells me that

 

[Drebin]

Even if those two passes were caught, it still wouldn’t have changed our perception on the offense last year IMO. It was still atrocious. However, it probably would have changed our recruiting, what media thinks of us, and what we think of JoMo’s future. Everyone would all be saying “In his first year of an sec coach and with players that don’t fit his scheme, he was able to pull out 10 wins”. And instead, we are all now saying that he underachieved with the one of the best defenses in recent SEC history.

All that being said, I’m naturally a more optimistic fan than pessimistic so I’m hopeful that Joe will figure it out once he gets his QB. His coaching history tells me that

His coaching history also suggested immediate offensive turnarounds in his first year. I made the mistake of letting that get me wooly last year too.

I am hopeful that Joe turns it around because I love the guy. Last year, though, we were atrocious offensively, and the main reason for the frustration is that we didn't have to be. And you are correct - catching two dropped passes wouldn't change that.

 

[Go Budaw]

Even as one of the bigger Moorhead supporters, I think the “two dropped passes” thing is a little bit of a myth that needs to end. First of all, it was only one dropped pass that had any impact on our bowl game, and that was the Mitchell drop against UF. We lost that game by 7 points. You can’t say that if he catches that pass, we automatically win the game. Maybe we go to OT, and who knows what happens then. The 2nd dropped pass was Guidry in the bowl game that we we wouldn’t have even been playing in if we had beaten UF. There’s no telling what our record or outlook would have been in the alternate scenario where we beat UF, as we would have had a much tougher bowl game opponent in a NY6 game most likely. There are a lot of logical leaps that have to be made to say we were “two dropped passes” from 10-2.

 

[MSUDC11]

Last year’s offense was really strange because it was a night and day difference depending on the opponent. We weren’t terrible against everybody, some games we moved the ball really well and it wasn’t always against bad teams. One of our best rushing games of the year was against an 8-5 Auburn team and in my opinion our best passing game was against a 9-4 A&M team.

But when it was bad, dear gosh was it bad.

Total offense in our wins - 499 ypg
Total offense in our losses - 235 ypg

If you remove Iowa from the equation when we had a not terrible 342 yards of total offense, we averaged 208 yards a game in our four SEC losses.

Consistency is the key. We looked good offensively our first three games and then Kentucky and Florida happened. We have to keep having success against lesser teams, and then we can’t just fall off a dang cliff when playing the better teams on our schedule.

 

[CadaverDawg]

Even as one of the bigger Moorhead supporters, I think the “two dropped passes” thing is a little bit of a myth that needs to end. First of all, it was only one dropped pass that had any impact on our bowl game, and that was the Mitchell drop against UF. We lost that game by 7 points. You can’t say that if he catches that pass, we automatically win the game. Maybe we go to OT, and who knows what happens then. The 2nd dropped pass was Guidry in the bowl game that we we wouldn’t have even been playing in if we had beaten UF. There’s no telling what our record or outlook would have been in the alternate scenario where we beat UF, as we would have had a much tougher bowl game opponent in a NY6 game most likely. There are a lot of logical leaps that have to be made to say we were “two dropped passes” from 10-2.

Yep, the "2 drops from 10 Wins" thing is just simply false, and is a way for sunshine pumpers to rebut the offensive **** show we witnessed last year in several of our games. Reminds me of the "3 outs from Omaha" video Ole Miss put out years ago, except Ole Miss's was more factual.

 

[TaleofTwoDogs]

Football is all about putting the right players in the right position, Fitz was the quintessential wishbone QB, run, run, run. Maybe he could have developed into a RPO guy but that wasn't going to happen in his senior year because of the injury, missed spring practice and 1st game suspension. Throw into this scenario receivers that performed average to below average and you ended up with an offense that struggled against elite SEC defenses which are typically known for stopping the run. If we start Tommy Stevens and he plays like a mature QB and not a deer in the headlights and with an improved receiver corps, then I think you will see an offense closer to 2014 then 2018. The wool is growing.

 

[Drebin]

Last year’s offense was really strange because it was a night and day difference depending on the opponent. We weren’t terrible against everybody, some games we moved the ball really well and it wasn’t always against bad teams. One of our best rushing games of the year was against an 8-5 Auburn team and in my opinion our best passing game was against a 9-4 A&M team.

But when it was bad, dear gosh was it bad.

Total offense in our wins - 499 ypg
Total offense in our losses - 235 ypg

If you remove Iowa from the equation when we had a not terrible 342 yards of total offense, we averaged 208 yards a game in our four SEC losses.

Consistency is the key. We looked good offensively our first three games and then Kentucky and Florida happened. We have to keep having success against lesser teams, and then we can’t just fall off a dang cliff when playing the better teams on our schedule.

You are absolutely correct in that we showed some flashes at times offensively. No flashes were there to be had against the best defenses we faced, however. I think that's a bigger concern about Moorhead's offense than anything and also a reason to temper expectations for this year: maybe his offense just doesn't work against elite SEC defenses. He didn't see 300lb defensive linemen that run 4.6 40s and glue-sticky, physical corners like this while coaching at Fordham, Uconn, and Penn State.

 

[VegasDawg13]

Even as one of the bigger Moorhead supporters, I think the “two dropped passes” thing is a little bit of a myth that needs to end. First of all, it was only one dropped pass that had any impact on our bowl game, and that was the Mitchell drop against UF. We lost that game by 7 points. You can’t say that if he catches that pass, we automatically win the game. Maybe we go to OT, and who knows what happens then. The 2nd dropped pass was Guidry in the bowl game that we we wouldn’t have even been playing in if we had beaten UF. There’s no telling what our record or outlook would have been in the alternate scenario where we beat UF, as we would have had a much tougher bowl game opponent in a NY6 game most likely. There are a lot of logical leaps that have to be made to say we were “two dropped passes” from 10-2.

Obviously we can never know, but I'm as certain as I can be that if we had gone up 13-3 over Florida, we were going to win. Having said that, everything else you said is 100% correct.

 

[mount lefroy]

His coaching history also suggested immediate offensive turnarounds in his first year.

I dont think it really did. Some Penn State fans warned us about that. Even if they hadnt, any 4th year qb who didnt get the spring to actually execute the new plays was at a severe disadvantage. Mullen struggled to get his offense going until he got Dak under center full time. Tyler Russell just wasnt the right fit. Relf had good success, but also wasnt a good enough passer.

We fans, and the finger points at me too, love to think about the 'revenues' and disregard the 'expenditures' prior to actually seeing the process implemented. But that is what fans do. Hanging onto that, as if Joe hasnt had a reputation of having a great offense, is what is tiresome.

Our football team will have it's ups and downs. I'm choosing, like last year, to not have an expectation of wins/losses/or what bowl game and just looking for the team to develop chemistry.

And on an immature note: I'd love to see Mullen fall on his face.

 

[johnson86-1]

Our defense gave up 12 touchdowns all year, and we lost five games, as my friends like to remind me when I find myself getting a little wool about this season. I think that's a sobering reality that we all should hang on to as we temper our expectations.

Dammit. I have worked myself into some tempered optimism and then go and do that. You could have at least waited until tomorrow morning to post this so it'd be a little more socially acceptable for me to go drink straight from the bottle before 10am. *** hole

 

[Drebin]

I dont think it really did. Some Penn State fans warned us about that.

I don't recall that. I recall him coming in and taking a middle of the pack offensive team to top of the conference statistically in his first season at Penn State. That was part of the hype surrounding his hire for us.

As for Mullen falling on his face, I guess I'm immature too.

 

[maroonmania]

Obviously we can never know, but I'm as certain as I can be that if we had gone up 13-3 over Florida, we were going to win. Having said that, everything else you said is 100% correct.

Concur, I feel absolutely confident that we would have beaten Florida had we gone up 13-3. Now I'm not 100% convinced that Mitchell gets into the end zone even if he caught the ball. He would have gotten it around the 8 and could have been tripped up prior to crossing the goal line, who knows?

 

[Drebin]

 

[Tigr2ndbase]

The only thing for certain is there is a multiverse out there where we are the “Alabama” of football. I know those fans are having the time of their life.

 

[57stratdawg]

You usually know what you have in a Coach by year 2. We really need to see the offense rolling this year.

 

[Goat Holding Inc]

Dropped passes (and similar things) even out over time. If we had more chances to hit that pass, we would have most likely. But we didn't, because our offense was struggling mightily.

We had some bad luck last year, and I'm hoping that evens out over the course of 2019. We won big and lost small, so I chalk up the 8-4 to some bad luck, probably should have been 9-3. We probably 'should' be 7-5 this year so here's to hoping we catch that pass and go 8-4 in 2019.

 

[DoggieDaddy13]

No shame in being Wooly Bully. Even the most pessimistic SPSer is guilty of it.

 

[Joe Schmedlap]

LOTS of good will went out the window when JoMo allowed *******'' smug *** come in to Starkville and punk MSU running the same 4 or 5 plays all day. All the 17 State had to do was run the ball in the 2nd half the way it did in the 1st half, and the good guys win.

Obviously we can never know, but I'm as certain as I can be that if we had gone up 13-3 over Florida, we were going to win. Having said that, everything else you said is 100% correct.

 

[Dawgzilla]

Point of order: If you are going to include the bowl loss in your stats, then you have to include the 3 TDs our defense gave up in that game. So, 15 Tds all year, and 5 losses.

Also, our defense gave up 12 of their 15 TDs in those 5 losses. I'm not blaming the defense for those losses at all - the D is the reason we still had a chance in 3 of our SEC losses - but you have to put things in perspective. It's not as if the Defense was the reason we won 8 games. We would have won our 8 games even if our defense wasn't so good. We just failed to take advantage of the opportunities our defense provided in most of our losses (we weren't going to beat Bama regardless). And our D let us down in the bowl game.

 

[Dawgzilla]

Our opponents dropped some wide-*** open passes, too!

 

[was21]

Perception may be off since didn't check the stats but it seems we had a helluva lot more penalties last year than the previous years under Mullen. An undisciplined team is always a concern.

 

[johnson86-1]

I don't recall that. I recall him coming in and taking a middle of the pack offensive team to top of the conference statistically in his first season at Penn State. That was part of the hype surrounding his hire for us.

As for Mullen falling on his face, I guess I'm immature too.

I think the PSU people said it took 4 or 5 games his first year at Penn State to click. Basically struggled and then sort of "clicked" in the second half against Minnesota.

That story doesn't jump out at you if you are looking just at game scores. But, 33 points in win against Kent State, 39 points in a loss to Pitt, 34 points in seven point win over Temple, 10 points in loss to MIchigan, 29 points in win against Minnesota (mos in second half and overtime), and then 24 against OSU, 62 v Purdue, 41 versus Iowa, 45 v. INdiana, 39 v. Rutgers, 45 v. the other MSU, 38 against Wisconsin in Big 10 championship, and then 49 in loss to USCw.

So I guess considering the competition, there was a noticeable jump over the course of the season, and if they did things like struggle with turnovers early, I guess it could be a bigger jump than just the final score indicates.

 

[$altyDawg]

Those two passes were pretty much on the money and catchable and would MAY have made the difference in soooo many emotions and opinions right now, huh?

Ok, I remember the Florida game that could have put us at 9-3, but what is the 2nd horrible drop in the regular season that would have put us at 10-2? The only other one I can remember was Iowa in the bowl game.

 

[$altyDawg]

I was thinking Kentucky moreso than the Outback Bowl. Still can't believe they ran up 28 on us.

 

[$altyDawg]

As for Mullen falling on his face, I guess I'm immature too.

Count me also as part of that group; immature as charged.

 

[$altyDawg]

Now I'm not 100% convinced that Mitchell gets into the end zone even if he caught the ball. He would have gotten it around the 8 and could have been tripped up prior to crossing the goal line, who knows?

This is very true, and it could have led to 3 more Fitz runs up the middle and another FG. That would have been more painful to me than Florida's only TD coming from a trick play Mullen pulled out of his *** that never seemed to work for us.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

We all know there was (and still is for some) a lot of consternation about going 8-4 last year with the number one defense in the land. We all get it. It was a little frustrating huh? Then you have the people taking about coaching and running vs passing and offensive schemes and quarterback systems and blah blah blah.

But those two passes... The team was two dropped passes from 10-2 and a different bowl game. Those two passes were pretty much on the money and catchable and would have made the difference in soooo many emotions and opinions right now, huh?

• So if those two passes were caught, would the folks doubting if Moorhead can run the team have a different opinion now?
• If they were caught would the Negative Nancies think JoMo knew what he was doing?
• If they were caught and the team is 10-2 might it have affected recruiting any?
• What would expectations be for 2019 if those those two passes were caught

I know 2018 was a little frustrating. He did make some freshman mistakes, no doubt. But Joe and staff seem to have their bearings locked in and are making strong movements forward now.

This thread is useless until someone whips out the term mediocrity and calls someone a moran.

 

[KingCharlesSpaniel]

Count me also as part of that group; immature as charged.

Immature, vindictive, petty, etc. Count me in. Guilty as charged.
Delenda Mullen est. Let him be carried home ON his shield and his lawn sown with salt. Let him be crushed and driven before us and let us hear the lamentations of Megan and Breelyn.


Friends, Mississippians, fellow Bulldogs, lend me your ears;
I come to bury Mullen, not to praise him.
The evil that men do lives after them;
The inabilility to win the big game, to beat Alabama, to hold on to a defensive coordinator, to advance the program past high mediocrity.
So let it be with Mullen. The noble Stricklin
Hath told you Mullen was ambitious;
Each year as the ides of November approached
Did we not see him with his cell phone seeking other employment?
And Stricklin is an honorable man?
You all did love him once, not without cause;
What cause then withholds you then, to mourn for him?
But here I am to speak what I do know.
17 Mullen and the horse he rode out on.

 

[dawgdoug1962]

Immature, vindictive, petty, etc. Count me in. Guilty as charged.
Delenda Mullen est. Let him be carried home ON his shield and his lawn sown with salt. Let him be crushed and driven before us and let us hear the lamentations of Megan and Breelyn.


Friends, Mississippians, fellow Bulldogs, lend me your ears;
I come to bury Mullen, not to praise him.
The evil that men do lives after them;
The inabilility to win the big game, to beat Alabama, to hold on to a defensive coordinator, to advance the program past high mediocrity.
So let it be with Mullen. The noble Stricklin
Hath told you Mullen was ambitious;
Each year as the ides of November approached
Did we not see him with his cell phone seeking other employment?
And Stricklin is an honorable man?
You all did love him once, not without cause;
What cause then withholds you then, to mourn for him?
But here I am to speak what I do know.
17 Mullen and the horse he rode out on.

Classic stuff....thanks for posting one of the best ever 'take offs'....

 

[Phil Wenneck.sixpack]

This offense starts and stops at the QB position. Not having the type of player

that's built for it will make the whole train derail. In our wins, we did it with the QB run. Which is what Fitz has always been good at. In our losses it was because of passing which he was never strong at. Now I know some will point to our lack of carries for the running backs. Which is a valid point. But one dimensional teams are always going to be 8 win teams. In a nutshell, that's where we finished.

EDIT: Let's deep dive into the stats sheet in these losses.

Kentucky: 16-32, 145 yards, 1 int, 0 td's
LSU: (you may wanna look away) 8-24, 59 yards, 4 ints, 0 td's
Bama: 11-20 125 yards. 0 int, 0 td's
Florida: 11-26 98 yards. 0 int, 0 td's


I don't care if we had the '85 Bears on defense, this team was doomed to be an 8 win only team.

 

[mount lefroy]

that's built for it will make the whole train derail. In our wins, we did it with the QB run. Which is what Fitz has always been good at. In our losses it was because of passing which he was never strong at. Now I know some will point to our lack of carries for the running backs. Which is a valid point. But one dimensional teams are always going to be 8 win teams. In a nutshell, that's where we finished.

Very true. A good defense not only attacks. They force you into doing what you dont want to do and make you pay either way. Bama, LSU, UK and Florida all did that. Dont think that was the problem with Iowa. But they werent bad.

 

[Go Budaw]

that's built for it will make the whole train derail. In our wins, we did it with the QB run. Which is what Fitz has always been good at. In our losses it was because of passing which he was never strong at. Now I know some will point to our lack of carries for the running backs. Which is a valid point. But one dimensional teams are always going to be 8 win teams. In a nutshell, that's where we finished.

That and we played a much tougher schedule in 2018 than 2017. #6 SOS in 2018 vs. #22 in 2017 by the conventional SOS rankings. If you go by the Sagarin ratings, we faced the #11 SOS in 2018 vs. the #46 SOS in 2017.

Results should not have been that unexpected. Everybody based their preseason expectations thinking that neither UF or UK were Top 25 teams, when both finished in the Top 12. When you base your interpretation of success or failure on bad data or assumptions, you are extremely likely to be disappointed.

 

[Maroonthirteen]

The dropped TD pass in the bowl game was terrible. It was a great pass, perfect location. But it happened with 8 minutes left. Iowa got the ball back and run a lot of time off the clock with a few first downs. We couldn’t force them Into a 3 And out. For the way 3rd quarters of that game went, even if we score a td there, I wouldn’t be surprised if Iowa kicks the winning field goal to win 30-29.

After the first quarter they made some major adjustments and we didn’t. On either side of the ball.

 

[ezsoil]

that's built for it will make the whole train derail. In our wins, we did it with the QB run. Which is what Fitz has always been good at. In our losses it was because of passing which he was never strong at. Now I know some will point to our lack of carries for the running backs. Which is a valid point. But one dimensional teams are always going to be 8 win teams. In a nutshell, that's where we finished.

EDIT: Let's deep dive into the stats sheet in these losses.

Kentucky: 16-32, 145 yards, 1 int, 0 td's
LSU: (you may wanna look away) 8-24, 59 yards, 4 ints, 0 td's
Bama: 11-20 125 yards. 0 int, 0 td's
Florida: 11-26 98 yards. 0 int, 0 td's


I don't care if we had the '85 Bears on defense, this team was doomed to be an 8 win only team.

i have to agree ..but what I didn't and still don't understand is why he didn't get the ball into the hands of Hill even if it's a swing pass.or the jet sweep that worked so well against Auburn..if Fitz wasn't making the right reads, freakin call a play and line up and run it...after hearing him speak at the Outback Bowl appreciation thing at SBW... he admitted he wanted to throw the ball downfield and that was the only way to get to the next level...I totally get that and agree that moving forward that was going to be the case...however, it was stubborn on his part to continue to force a square peg into a round hole... I don't think he realized how rare a 10 win season is at MSU... had he played the cards that he was dealt which was to run the damn ball, he easily could have had a 10 or 11 win team. But that is water under the bridge and no need to disturb the dead injuns... but his off season moves have been solid so this is my judgement year for him... let's see how he manages the schedule...a ten win season and all is forgiven...

 

[MedDawg]

Very true. A good defense not only attacks. They force you into doing what you dont want to do and make you pay either way. Bama, LSU, UK and Florida all did that. Dont think that was the problem with Iowa. But they werent bad.

Another thing to note: as good as our defense was, they didn’t score a single point. Great defensive teams score defensive touchdowns. We didn’t recover many fumbles either. We had some interceptions but not a lot for a top defensive team.

So while our defense kept the other team’s points down, they didn’t help the offense by scoring points or giving them short fields like other great defensive teams do. Our defense just forced a lot of punts and field goals.

We also didn’t score a single point on special teams like top teams do. That would have helped the offense too.