Pitching scenarios

[Uncle Ruckus]

Let’s go through this. I’ll incorrectly go first. I may not even get the sequence of events right

We can win Tuesday and win the next one (Thursday?) to advance to the final.
Plum and JT

W Tuesday - L Thursday - W or L Friday
Plum JT Smith?

L Tuesday W Wednesday? W Thursday? W or L Friday?
Plum JT Smith ??? James

My point is we can play 2, 3, or 4 more games before making the final. I think. Who pitches?

 

[CochiseCowbell]

Plum, JT, then get ready for the 'ship.

 

[Go Budaw]

Let’s go through this. I’ll incorrectly go first. I may not even get the sequence of events right

We can win Tuesday and win the next one (Thursday?) to advance to the final.
Plum and JT

W Tuesday - L Thursday - W or L Friday
Plum JT Smith?

L Tuesday W Wednesday? W Thursday? W or L Friday?
Plum JT Smith ??? James

My point is we can play 2, 3, or 4 more games before making the final. I think. Who pitches?

Next two games is Plum and JT, no matter what.

If we lose to Vandy, it’s JT on Thursday, Smith Friday, Small Saturday (all on full rest, basically).

If we beat Vandy, it’s JT on Friday and Small on Saturday or Finals Game 1.

Pretty straightforward.

 

[Uncle Ruckus]

Thanks. I was too lazy to look up dates the games were being played. Didn’t realize Small could pitch as late as Saturday

 

[Seinfeld]

All of this makes sense, but the only thing I’ve been trying to figure out is... if we get into a scenario where Small has to pitch Saturday and we win, doesn’t that pretty much mean that he’ll be unavailable for the championship? I mean, I’m guessing that Lemonis would figure out some way to work him in there, but in any case, it would be on extremely short rest

 

[Cap'n Geech]

I would consider throwing Small on Friday regardless of how we get there. It gives you a chance to throw your best pitcher three times if you get to Game 3 of the final series. This was our approach in 2013 with Graveman. The difference is I am more confident we can at least split the first two games in the final series to have Small for a potential Game 3. The other argument for this is winning the whole thing is largely dependent on not only making the final series but playing the fewest games on the way to the final series. Throwing your best available pitcher is the best way to get there in the fewest number of games.

 

[Go Budaw]

Thanks. I was too lazy to look up dates the games were being played. Didn’t realize Small could pitch as late as Saturday

All of this makes sense, but the only thing I’ve been trying to figure out is... if we get into a scenario where Small has to pitch Saturday and we win, doesn’t that pretty much mean that he’ll be unavailable for the championship? I mean, I’m guessing that Lemonis would figure out some way to work him in there, but in any case, it would be on extremely short rest

I think he’d be available in Game 3 (3 days rest) for maybe 60-70 pitches or so, as long as his Saturday pitch count didn’t get too high.

The conventional wisdom is that the final Series is a separate entity from bracket play. But the way I look at it with everything from Friday all the way through Finals G3 is that its a 5 game series where you have to win at least 3. So you wanna throw the ace as soon as you can again. We started Small yesterday explicitly for this purpose.

 

[Cat Duck]

I would consider throwing Small on Friday regardless of how we get there. It gives you a chance to throw your best pitcher three times if you get to Game 3 of the final series. This was our approach in 2013 with Graveman. The difference is I am more confident we can at least split the first two games in the final series to have Small for a potential Game 3. The other argument for this is winning the whole thing is largely dependent on not only making the final series but playing the fewest games on the way to the final series. Throwing your best available pitcher is the best way to get there in the fewest number of games.

I like this strategy, but it depends on the pitcher. Many people criticized Cohen for doing it, but the fact of the matter is, you MUST win either Game 1 or 2 of the Finals, so it didn't matter that Graveman was not used in those 2 games. He would have went Game 3.

Now, because of our bracket this year (assuming we win tomorrow), Small would only be on 4 days rest. Graveman had 5 in 2013. The best play for us here would be to use Ginn or Plumlee in that game. If it backfires and we have to use Small on Saturday, well, we will have to hit our way to a championship. Same as last year.

 

[Cap'n Geech]

I agreed with Cohen in 2013, but I also agreed with Henderson last year. Our best chance to win the whole thing was getting a win in our third game with Billingsley. Ultimately, I believe Lemonis and Foxhall will do whatever gives us the best chance to win the whole thing.

 

[VegasDawg13]

All of this makes sense, but the only thing I’ve been trying to figure out is... if we get into a scenario where Small has to pitch Saturday and we win, doesn’t that pretty much mean that he’ll be unavailable for the championship? I mean, I’m guessing that Lemonis would figure out some way to work him in there, but in any case, it would be on extremely short rest

I think once you enter the loser's bracket of the first phase of the CWS, you lose the luxury of being able to make pitching decisions with the final series in mind.

 

[Cat Duck]

I think once you enter the loser's bracket of the first phase of the CWS, you lose the luxury of being able to make pitching decisions with the final series in mind.

Yep. It's survival at that point.

 

[Xenomorph]

Plumlee, Ginn, Small is probably the order of the next 3 games regardless of W/L's.