I think you are on to something. I have a sneaking suspicion on this as well
Call me crazy but I am leaning toward thinking Michigan gets to the last four. Statistically they have the best starting pitching on that side of the bracket, and they will avoid Isaiah Campbell in the second game if they play Arkansas.
They give me a UCLA 2013 vibe for some reason. They aren’t great overall, but they are good enough in certain areas to where they could do really well in that ballpark.
I just think the whole field is WIDE open. I don’t know that Arkansas has the pitching depth to win it all, and the three best teams in the tournament (including us) might be on our side of the bracket. So to me it wouldn’t be a shock at all if somebody other than UA gets through that side.