Tonight is a must win

[BKCBully]

It's been magical so far, but we have a really tough road to the finals if we don't beat the heels.

 

[karlchilders.sixpack]

The way they strectch out the schedule

I'd say we are in about as good of shape as everybody else.

Regardless, two teams will exit Omaha, before we do.

 

[Drebin]

I'd say we are in about as good of shape as everybody else.

Regardless, two teams will exit Omaha, before we do.

I don't think the issue is available pitching as much as it's just quality of opponent. If we lose tonight, we would likely have to beat some combination of Oregon State and UNC three times to make the finals. Most people (myself included) have felt that OSU was the best team in Omaha.

 

[karlchilders.sixpack]

True but,

I don't really see a truly dominating team in the field.

As far as Oregon St., gotta wonder about some of their prior competition.

Regardless we are playing with house $.

 

[patdog]

OSU finished 2nd in the PAC-12,

1/2 game ahead of Washington​

. Of course they're good, but they're not invincible. I think 3 of the teams in the other half of the bracket are better than them. And based on what we've seen so far, at least 1 team in our bracket appears to be better than them.

 

[Len2003]

Yes, we must win tonight. With OSU losing, our bracket became much more manageable. We need to score some runs tonight or have Pilk shut them down for 7 innings. I trust France or Neff to come in and save the day if Pilk gets into trouble.

Whoever wins tonight has a tremendous advantage for sure. Hoping our freshmen bounce back. The good news is everyone has already used their ace, so I hope we can get some runs. We got 10 hits against a damn good pitcher 2 days ago, but we couldn’t score.

 

[She Mate Me]

If we want to win it all, UW was almost certainly a must win. Tonight is a really, really important game, but not must like Saturday was.

 

[fishwater99]

Huge Game tonight!!

 

[PineGroveBully]

I just don't agree at all. You almost hafta manage this game like game 3 of a super. Everything is on the table. If our goal is to win it all that is. House money? Sure, but since we crashed the party, I have every intention of winning the 17'er

 

[UpTheMiddlex3Punt]

Yeah, the first game is crucial. Going back 10 years, the CWS finalists were:

L1 - lost in first game (e.g. Washington were to win our half)
L2 - lost in second game (e.g. we lose tonight but still make it to the final)
W2 - won in second game (e.g. we win tonight and still make it to the final)

2017: L2, W2
2016: L2, L2
2015: W2, W2
2014: W2, W2
2013: W2, W2
2012: W2, L2
2011: W2, W2
2010: W2, L1
2009: W2, W2
2008: W2, W2

So in summary, 15 finalists won their first two games, 4 won their first game but dropped the second, and 1 lost their first game and still made it to the finals (and won. South Carolina in 2010).

 

[patdog]

Except this isn't like a game 3 of a super regional. That would be a Saturday game. This is more like game 1 of a super regional, and exactly like game 4 of a regional (which if you'll recall, neither of the teams that played in game 4 of our regional won the regional). Yes, it's a very important game. But it's not do or die like a game 3 of a super is.

 

[BKCBully]

We win tonight we can win either Friday or Saturday and advance. We lose we HAVE to win Wednesday Friday and Saturday.

 

[Go Budaw]

Yeah, the first game is crucial. Going back 10 years, the CWS finalists were:

L1 - lost in first game (e.g. Washington were to win our half)
L2 - lost in second game (e.g. we lose tonight but still make it to the final)
W2 - won in second game (e.g. we win tonight and still make it to the final)

2017: L2, W2
2016: L2, L2
2015: W2, W2
2014: W2, W2
2013: W2, W2
2012: W2, L2
2011: W2, W2
2010: W2, L1
2009: W2, W2
2008: W2, W2

So in summary, 15 finalists won their first two games, 4 won their first game but dropped the second, and 1 lost their first game and still made it to the finals (and won. South Carolina in 2010).

We never get serious till our backs are against the wall it seems. I don’t want a loss tonight by any means. But, I’d be a long way from freaking out if it happened. The big thing tonight is winning keeps us from having to play Wednesday. We can throw Billingsley Friday and have both Small / Pilk fresh for the Finals if we win that one.

 

[johnson86-1]

Yeah, the first game is crucial. Going back 10 years, the CWS finalists were:

L1 - lost in first game (e.g. Washington were to win our half)
L2 - lost in second game (e.g. we lose tonight but still make it to the final)
W2 - won in second game (e.g. we win tonight and still make it to the final)

2017: L2, W2
2016: L2, L2
2015: W2, W2
2014: W2, W2
2013: W2, W2
2012: W2, L2
2011: W2, W2
2010: W2, L1
2009: W2, W2
2008: W2, W2

So in summary, 15 finalists won their first two games, 4 won their first game but dropped the second, and 1 lost their first game and still made it to the finals (and won. South Carolina in 2010).

But isn't losing either of the first two games the same as far as how many games you have to play to advance?

I get that losing your first game is a bad sign, but it's just like the regional, correct? In that losing the first and winning the second puts you in the same place you would be if you win the first and lose the second?

 

[She Mate Me]

I just don't agree at all. You almost hafta manage this game like game 3 of a super. Everything is on the table. If our goal is to win it all that is. House money? Sure, but since we crashed the party, I have every intention of winning the 17'er

I'm simply saying that if you lose the 1st game you have slim odds of winning it all, especially when you're not loaded with pitching like the top teams on paper. 34 of last 37 NC's started 1-0.

ETA don't get me wrong, tonight is key to our chances, but if we had lost to UW we would likely have to beat Oregon St, UW and NC twice. Worst case now is beat OSU or UW once and NC twice, and that's if we lose tonight. Just feel game 1 is the must vs. a winner's bracket game.

 

[blacklistedbully]

I'm concerned about Small going forward. That hit off his leg is most likely going to hurt a lot more by the time he is needed again than it was right after. Doesn't take much to alter a throwing motion.

Have to imagine the medical staff is working that thing every day hoping to speed his recovery.

 

[CochiseCowbell]

We win tonight we can win either Friday or Saturday and advance. We lose we HAVE to win Wednesday Friday and Saturday.

THIS.

 

[UpTheMiddlex3Punt]

It does put you in the same spot on a W-L level, but probably not on a pitchers available level. You give everything you have in an elimination game. If you're down by 2 you might go to your closer in the 7th or 8th inning just to keep the game close. If your bats come alive and you come back to win, you may not have your closer available or he may be at less than 100% for the next elimination game. A team who won game 1 but is losing by 2 in the 7th or 8th of game 2 may choose to not go to their closer early because if they still end up losing, they want him for the elimination game.

 

[Willow Grove Dawg]

We need the February/March/early April version of Pilkington tonight & the late April/May/June production from the hitters.

 

[PineGroveBully]

This is the exact point I was trying to make.