Baseball - Where we stand going into the final series

[bulldogcountry1]

I haven't seen any projections updated for today, but it looks like the last 4 teams battling it out are State, Vandy, LSU, and USCE. USCE is probably close to a lock, but a lot can happen. I feel like we need to separate ourselves from Vandy in SEC wins and RPI to really feel comfortable. LSU will probably end up with more SEC wins than us, but they didn't play UF, UGA, or UK. If the committee is paying any attention at all, they will hold that against them. LSU always gets the benefit of the doubt, though.

Bottom line is that it's too close to expect to win one from UF and expect to be in. We need to get to 30 wins one way or another, including the SECT.

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[gymdawg.sixpack]

So uf, um, ark, uk, aub, mizzu, txam, uga are in. Bama and ut are out. That leaves your scenario and likely 2 of those getting in. I think if we get 1vs uf and 2-1 sect or 2 vs uf and we'll be ok.

 

[Go Budaw]

I haven't seen any projections updated for today, but it looks like the last 4 teams battling it out are State, Vandy, LSU, and USCE. USCE is probably close to a lock, but a lot can happen. I feel like we need to separate ourselves from Vandy in SEC wins and RPI to really feel comfortable. LSU will probably end up with more SEC wins than us, but they didn't play UF, UGA, or UK. If the committee is paying any attention at all, they will hold that against them. LSU always gets the benefit of the doubt, though.

Bottom line is that it's too close to expect to win one from UF and expect to be in. We need to get to 30 wins one way or another, including the SECT.

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Swap Missouri for USC on your list and it is pretty accurate. USC is a lock. Any SEC team that goes .500 in conference play and is over the 30 win mark overall is always a lock...any year. Try to find a deviation from that historically....it’s not there. Likewise, LSU will lock their bid up as long as they take one from Auburn. It’s us, Vandy, and Missouri fighting for likely one bid, and maybe two if more than one out of that group finishes strong.

 

[Go Budaw]

So uf, um, ark, uk, aub, mizzu, txam, uga are in. Bama and ut are out. That leaves your scenario and likely 2 of those getting in. I think if we get 1vs uf and 2-1 sect or 2 vs uf and we'll be ok.

Mizzou is not in. Not yet anyway. They will be if they go 4-0 this week though.

 

[patdog]

Any SEC team that goes .500 in conference play and is over the 30 win mark overall is always a lock...any year. Try to find a deviation from that historically....it’s not there.

That’s news to the 2016 Alabama & Kentucky teams.

 

[blacklistedbully]

We are also hurt by fact we lost series to Vandy (swept at home), @ LSU & @ Mizzou.

 

[WrapItDog]

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[blacklistedbully]

Good info, if not definitive. But that's probably your point,a s well as others. Committee seems to be all over the place.

In the case where we go 1-2 vs UF, SCar in 2017 is discouraging. aTm is encouraging, though they won 2 SECT games.

Any idea if 2017 SCar or OM had a good record vs Top 10?

 

[bulldogcountry1]

Interesting info. I'd like to see how many SEC teams made it in every year.

 

[maroonmania]

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Doesn't look good for us if we just take 1 game this weekend. Only twice has an SEC team made it in since 2011 with 13 SEC wins and one of those was Auburn with a 22 RPI (we won't be near that mark) and A&M (at 33 RPI) but they only played 29 SEC games.

 

[MSUDC11]

I think we pretty much have to win two this weekend. If we only win one, I think we need at least three wins in Hoover. If we get swept, we have to win the SEC Tourney.

 

[campshelbydog842003]

D1 Baseball had us firmly in last week with 2 series to play and their projections are based on how they saw the year finishing out. I'm no mind reader, but I doubt they had us going on the road and winning 2 against Kentucky and I also doubt they had us beating Florida twice. I feel like we will get credit with the committee for playing an entire month on the road and the **** show at head coach. Maybe not.

 

[wsjmsu75]

D1 Baseball had us firmly in last week with 2 series to play and their projections are based on how they saw the year finishing out. I'm no mind reader, but I doubt they had us going on the road and winning 2 against Kentucky and I also doubt they had us beating Florida twice. I feel like we will get credit with the committee for playing an entire month on the road and the **** show at head coach. Maybe not.[/QUOTE]

Good luck with us getting a break from the NCAA. Past history does not make me optimistic on that front.

 

[Willow Grove Dawg]

We probably need to avoid the sweep by UF this weekend and get one win in Hoover.

 

[CochiseCowbell]

Let's just sweep the Fighting O'Sullivans so we don't have to wring our hands over any of this.**

Wish I didn't need those sarcasterisks.

 

[Go Budaw]

That’s news to the 2016 Alabama & Kentucky teams.

Good catch. I stand corrected. However, those were pretty big outliers as their RPI’s were 64th and 69th, respectively. USC is at like 40-45 right now. If they get swept we’ll see where they fall. Still think they are locked in.

 

[bulldogcountry1]

It should matter that we played 32 games away from home.

 

[MSUDC11]

It should matter that we played 32 games away from home.

If we lose two this weekend then we will have a losing record at home in conference play. You can’t blame the road schedule if you lost most of your home series, too.

 

[patdog]

If we miss out, I think we can look back to the Vandy series as the one that hurt the most. 3 home games vs a team we're directly competing with for the final at large berths, and we got swept.

 

[Go Budaw]

It should matter that we played 32 games away from home.

It does matter. It factors very favorably into our RPI. Expecting the committee to place additional weight on it other than what is already in the formula might be expecting a little much though.

 

[8dog]

Agree. You already get rewarded for playing on the road. Nor do i think they gonna care about cann