Updated Bracketology

[Dawgs'n'Grizz]

Lunardi just updated his bracket. I know we have work to do, but we still aren't back to First Four Out or Next Four Out. The thing I don't understand is how UGA is ahead of us. They are only 3 games over .500 and 6-9 in SEC play. They have 3 Top 25 wins, but they have some bad losses too. That just doesn't seem to make sense to me.

 

[FlotownDawg]

I've heard it said the committee values quality wins over bad losses. Georgia has non-conference wins over tourney lock St. Mary's and fellow bubble teams Marquette and Temple. They also swept Florida and beat Tennessee and Alabama in conference play. It's not enough to make the tournament when you look at their bad losses, but enough to hang around the bubble. We just don't have a large number of quality wins. True, we have no bad losses, but our non-conference schedule is a bunch of nothing and we have few quality wins in conference. At Texas A&M and home against Alabama being our best two wins. Missouri losing at home to Ole Miss might've helped our SEC Tourney seeding but probably hurt us with the selection committee because it devalues our win over them in Starkville. We have a chance to get two Quadrant 1 wins in our last three games, at home vs. Tennessee and at LSU, which would put us squarely on the bubble if we can win those.

 

[VegasDawg13]

Last night, during the Georgia game, they put a graphic on screen showing us as the last team listed under Next Four Out and it noted that Georgia had been there the day before, but our win at aTm vaulted us ahead of them.

Georgia then went on to lose that game and according to the bracketology page on ESPN.com, vaulted back ahead of us as a result.

All that to say, I think when Lunardi's bracket was updated this morning, the bubble section failed to update with it.

 

[patdog]

Here's what's going to really hurt us. Far too many Group 4 games, and under .500 in Group 1-2 games. What could really help us is 6-2 in our last 8 games. Keep winning and hope the committee looks at how you finish more than who you played back in Nov & Dec.

Group
Record

1
3 - 6

2
3 - 2

3
4 - 0

4
9 - 0
​

 

[Dawgzilla]

I think the committee is going to look for reasons to leave us out. Our losses to UMiss and Vandy combined with our lack of big wins give them the reasons. They do not want to reward the POS non-conference schedule we played. Beating UT and finishing being 8-2 over our last 10 games is about all we can shoot for, and then hope that other bubble teams lose a lot.

 

[patdog]

They very well could. Historically, they've really punished teams for weak OOC scheduling. And our OOC schedule has to be one of the weakest ever for a major conference team. Just keep winning and give them no choice.

 

[BulldogBlitz]

I think the committee is going to look for reasons to leave us out. Our losses to UMiss and Vandy combined with our lack of big wins give them the reasons.

Was it over when the Germans bombed pearl harbor? No...

We win the SEC tournament and I do not believe they have the votes to withdraw the automatic birth. No double secret probation for us.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

I think the committee is going to look for reasons to leave us out. Our losses to UMiss and Vandy combined with our lack of big wins give them the reasons. They do not want to reward the POS non-conference schedule we played. Beating UT and finishing being 8-2 over our last 10 games is about all we can shoot for, and then hope that other bubble teams lose a lot.

You are probably right, however, with the way the SEC season is going down the stretch, I would wait until we either lose in the SEC tourney or win it before we make bets on making it or not.

 

[PineGroveBully]

This is far from fact but I read that he only updated the bracket, not the first out

 

[BiscuitEater]

Georgia is 6-9 and 2 games back of MSU (8-7). They play LSU, A&M and @ UT.

If we win out .. think the committee would be hard pressed to leave us out when we finish tied for 3rd in conference and we win 5 of our last 5 games.

 

[bruiser.sixpack]

I've heard it said the committee values quality wins over bad losses. Georgia has non-conference wins over tourney lock St. Mary's and fellow bubble teams Marquette and Temple. They also swept Florida and beat Tennessee and Alabama in conference play. It's not enough to make the tournament when you look at their bad losses, but enough to hang around the bubble. We just don't have a large number of quality wins. True, we have no bad losses, but our non-conference schedule is a bunch of nothing and we have few quality wins in conference. At Texas A&M and home against Alabama being our best two wins. Missouri losing at home to Ole Miss might've helped our SEC Tourney seeding but probably hurt us with the selection committee because it devalues our win over them in Starkville. We have a chance to get two Quadrant 1 wins in our last three games, at home vs. Tennessee and at LSU, which would put us squarely on the bubble if we can win those.

How do you see we have no bad losses? True, Ole Miss and Vandy were not bad losses. They were unforgivably horrible losses!*** they should count double against us. But I digress. Hail State? We deserve to be ahead of UGA. But that is not necessarily a last 4 In nomination.

 

[Drebin]

They very well could. Historically, they've really punished teams for weak OOC scheduling. And our OOC schedule has to be one of the weakest ever for a major conference team. Just keep winning and give them no choice.

They're valid reasons. This team played nobody with a pulse out of conference except cincy and had some missed opportunities in conference. Not enough quality wins. If we win out and beat UT, that doesn't get us in....it gets us on the bubble. Been saying it all along and getting down voted for it, but the latest bracketology confirms it. Keep winning and make it a tougher decision for them. But if we lose one of these last three games, our at large chances are gone.

 

[patdog]

I hope you're wrong, but it may be. And we have only ourselves to blame with the scheduling. Replace half of the 9 Category 4 games and the Div II game with Category 3 games, and we'd be in much better shape even if we lost a couple of them.

 

[engie]

And our OOC schedule has to be one of the weakest ever for a major conference team.

It was very weak, but in reality it wasn't even the weakest power conference OOC schedule this season. Was better than Rutgers(b10), USF and East Carolina(American), and Georgetown(BigEast) this season. The power 5 is more like a power 7 in basketball IMO. It was relatively similar to NC State, Va Tech, Florida St, and KState this season -- all teams that are on or pretty close to the bubble right alongside us.

Everyone can break down what the committee is going to reward and punish until they are blue in the face. The fact is that what the committee actually does with the bubble is a constantly moving goal post. But all of the advanced efficiency metrics put us squarely on the bubble right now. We are still going dancing at 11-7 in conference if we get there. JMO.

 

[DudyDog]

I overheard someone mention today that we were like 123 in SOS. The next closest SEC team to us was at 61. I would imagine this is what is holding us back more than anything else at this point.

 

[PineGroveBully]

Maybe in OOC SOS

They showed during the aTm game that overall we were in the 60's or low 70's

 

[tatedog]

It's pretty simple. If we win out in the regular season and don't lay a gigantic bomb in the tournament, we are in. If we don't we are out. I'm assuming conference tournaments not plus one-ing those leagues an inordinate amount. If higher than expected plus-oneing happens, we are probably screwed short of winning the tournament.

 

[VegasDawg13]

http://realtimerpi.com/college_Men_basketball_rpi2.html

According to that, we're 104. ESPN might have been using their BPI to calculate SOS.

I didn't look up every single SEC team, but everyone else I came across is in the top 50.

 

[BiscuitEater]

If we win out and beat UT, that doesn't get us in....it gets us on the bubble. Been saying it all along and getting down voted for it, but the latest bracketology confirms it.

Respectfully disagree. Win out, finish 11-7, then at the VERY worse, we are ONE game out of second behind UT. Third place MSU team, with 5 straight wins, goes to the dance.