Perspective on MBB (plus 615

[615dawg]

If we would have held on to a 13 point second half lead against Auburn, we'd be one game out of first place in the SEC right now.

If we would have done that and held on to a late 9 point lead at Ole Miss, we'd be in first place in the SEC right now.

Big game at Missouri tomorrow.

A win at Missouri tomorrow:

Give us another Quadrant 1 win.
Bumps us to the top 50 RPI.

The Tennessee-Alabama game is interesting for us. On one hand, Alabama is slipping and has a tough schedule remaining. If we could get some separation from them, we certainly could pass them in RPI next week. But a win at Mizzou combined with a Tennessee loss puts us one game out of second place in the SEC with Tennessee remaining on the schedule.

Arkansas is the team to watch for us to take over their NCAA spot. They have Vanderbilt tomorrow, a win over Mizzou and a Vandy win and I believe you start seeing some serious MSU is in the NCAA talk. But never fear, Arkansas finishes with A&M, Kentucky, Auburn, Alabama and Mizzou - they will lose 3 of those down the stretch while we have very winnable games. If we have a 2+ advantage on them in the conference wins column + a head to head win, no way we dont go before them.

 

[57stratdawg]

In your opinion, does a 5-2 finish get us into the tournament?

 

[615dawg]

5-2 definitely gets us in.

The most likely 5-2 finish is the two losses being at Missouri and at Texas A&M. That gives us a 42 RPI heading into the tournament.
The next likely 5-2 is beating Missouri but losing at Texas A&M and at home to Tennessee. That gives us a 45 RPI heading into the tournament.

The highest RPI team from the SEC ever left out was 49th. The highest major conference team ever left out was 41st, and that was before the expansion to 68 teams. In the 68 team era, top 45 is the safe zone.

 

[Dawgs'n'Grizz]

So is it better for Arkansas to lose all these game as opposed to them winning? I would think them beating teams such as Kentucky and Auburn would boost their RPI therefore giving us a higher quality win?

 

[klong-dog]

Think he's saying, the better we place in the SEC, the better our chances are. The top 3 would look pretty good and hard to keep us out, especially if there is all this talk about us being a 7,8,9 bid league.

 

[615dawg]

You are going to find two thoughts on this - I will lay them both out.

1. Arkansas winning improves their RPI, thus giving us a better quality win.
2. Arkansas losing drops them in RPI, allows us to pass them and gives us a solid win and an argument to receive a berth over them.

I am personally in the latter camp because I think the committee will be hesitant to give the SEC 8 bids. The SEC will get 8, in my opinion, but #8 is going to be heavily debated. Nine isn't happening.

So you have:

Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky - all look like stone cold locks.

Florida and Texas A&M are probably a lock, but Florida has a #50 RPI and A&M has a shaky conference standing (although it is improving) so I tier them below the three above.

Thats five, so room for three more between:
Missouri
Alabama
Arkansas
Mississippi State

We have the best record amongst this group, but the lowest RPI and lowest SOS of the group, but we are 3-1 head to head. A win over Mizzou would make us 4-1 against this group.

Conference standing is going to be a huge issue. Look at Kansas State. They have a lower RPI than us, a lower SOS than us, but are a staple of all the bracket positions? Why? They are 4th place in the Big 12 and have 3 Q1 wins (we have 2)

The one that I don't understand is Virginia Tech. Same conference record (although they are 7th in the ACC and we are 4th in the SEC), our RPI is 12 spots better, we have a better overall record, same conference record, and same Q1 record. They are projected in as a 9th ACC team. It wouldn't hurt to see a team like Virginia Tech start losing some games.

 

[Go Budaw]

5-2 definitely gets us in.

The most likely 5-2 finish is the two losses being at Missouri and at Texas A&M. That gives us a 42 RPI heading into the tournament.
The next likely 5-2 is beating Missouri but losing at Texas A&M and at home to Tennessee. That gives us a 45 RPI heading into the tournament.

The highest RPI team from the SEC ever left out was 49th. The highest major conference team ever left out was 41st, and that was before the expansion to 68 teams. In the 68 team era, top 45 is the safe zone.

Thanks for the analysis. One question, how do you determine what our final RPI will be in those scenarios? By that, I mean what other assumptions are you making, or what source are you using? It seems to be damn near impossible to project how 350+ teams will finish out their season game by game, which is information that would have to be known to know the final RPI’s of each team. I know Warren Nolan and others have those predicted RPI’s, but they have been notoriously inaccurate in the past on multiple services.

 

[615dawg]

RPI wizard has the best projection tool. I’m on the road but go check it out.