Do we get in at 23-10

[Apoplectic_Objurgator]

I think our SOS keeps us out

 

[gymdawg.sixpack]

We'd be 23-9...and that would have to include a 1st rd loss in the sec tourney.
Realistic expectations for the last 7gms would be 5-2 and 1-1 in tourney. Thats 24-9. Given the national desire it seems the sec is getting 7or8 teams in. That record would have us an rpi of 34-41. Sec gets aub, uk, ut, uf....i think wed be #5or6 along with ark then tx am.

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

We'd be 23-9...and that would have to include a 1st rd loss in the sec tourney.
Realistic expectations for the last 7gms would be 5-2 and 1-1 in tourney. Thats 24-9. Given the national desire it seems the sec is getting 7or8 teams in. That record would have us an rpi of 34-41. Sec gets aub, uk, ut, uf....i think wed be #5or6 along with ark then tx am.

If we are top 40 RPI and finish 11-7 in the SEC, we’re getting in. Just keep playing well- the RPI opportunities are right in front of us when we travel to Mizzou, A&M, and host UT. If we can just win one of those and take care of business in the rest, we’d be in good shape.

The blown game against UM still pissed me off on more than one level...

 

[Willow Grove Dawg]

23-9 will make for a stressful Sunday afternoon when the NCAA field is announced

 

[Southern Law Dawg]

I think I saw somewhere that a power 5 school with an RPI under 40 has only been left out one time.

 

[engie]

People really think we're getting left out with 11 conference wins in this SEC this season?

I think we'll be on the right side of the bubble if we pull off a win at Mizzou on Saturday...

 

[L4Dawg]

It’s a moot point till we are actually at that record.

 

[Go Budaw]

If we are top 40 RPI and finish 11-7 in the SEC, we’re getting in. Just keep playing well- the RPI opportunities are right in front of us when we travel to Mizzou, A&M, and host UT. If we can just win one of those and take care of business in the rest, we’d be in good shape.

The blown game against UM still pissed me off on more than one level...

Really, just the first part of your equation (Top 40 RPI) is all we need. We are a lock if we are there by Selection Sunday. However, it is probably going to take 11-7 or better to get us there. So in essence we probably need both.

 

[MSUDC11]

People really think we're getting left out with 11 conference wins in this SEC this season?

I think we'll be on the right side of the bubble if we pull off a win at Mizzou on Saturday...

Yeah but lose at Vandy next week and it basically erases that Mizzou win.

It’s not as simple as “get to this record and we’re in”. A lot of it depends on who we beat and who we lose to the rest of the way.

 

[engie]

Yeah but lose at Vandy next week and it basically erases that Mizzou win.

No it doesn't.

 

[tenureplan]

It would severely diminish it, while an Ole Miss loss at home would erase it.

 

[MSUDC11]

No it doesn't.

I know it’s tough to win in Memorial Gym, but Vandy is 8-15 with an RPI in the 120’s. We can not afford to lose that game.

 

[engie]

It would severely diminish it, while an Ole Miss loss at home would erase it.

Road losses in this version of the SEC isn't going to greatly diminish anything. As for the second part -- if your mom had balls -- you know how the saying goes. Some of you are truly magnets to negativity even if you have to imagine up said negativity...

If we go 11-7 in this SEC -- and we beat Mizzou on the road on Saturday -- we are dancing. Quote me on it.

 

[tenureplan]

You're right, too many ifs, and I'm not going to pull a 34 and hope for a loss to OM or Vandy to prove myself right. We'll just have to see how it plays out. I am just not sure we can take the RPI hit losing to either of those teams would give us.

 

[Go Budaw]

People really think we're getting left out with 11 conference wins in this SEC this season?

I think we'll be on the right side of the bubble if we pull off a win at Mizzou on Saturday...

Two things:

1) 11 wins in the SEC isn’t as impressive as you think. SEC is still only the 3rd best conference. It isn’t like football where its a completely dominant league.

2) Our garbage nonconference schedule has been discussed, but another thing hurting us is that we probably have the weakest conference schedule of any SEC team. We play each of the 3 best RPI teams in the league (Auburn, UT, UK) only once each, while playing the two worst teams in the league (OM, Vandy) twice each.

I still think we are more likely than not to get a bid at 11-7, but it isn’t a sure thing.

 

[engie]

Thanks, I can read conference RPI also. The SEC is a dominant league this year. Not as dominant as it's going to be in the near future -- but dominant. There will probably be 12 teams in the postseason -- NIT or NCAA. What it's lacking in terms of conference RPI is 4-5 truly elite teams at the top -- but that doesn't mean anything for deserving teams with decent RPIs making the tournament, many of which have proven to be better than the RPI tigers in other leagues when they went head to head.

If we go 11-7 and beat Mizzou on the road -- we are in the top half of the league -- and we are dancing. Pretty sure that every SEC team that wins 11 will get into the NCAA tourney this year and several are likely to get in at 10.

 

[patdog]

One thing to consider about the SEC record is the schedule. We drew just about the easiest SEC schedule possible playing UM, Vandy, USC & LSU twice each. Even Bama, the best team we play twice is only 6-5. Women drew a similarly easy schedule, but it really doesn't matter for them.

 

[Go Budaw]

One thing to consider about the SEC record is the schedule. We drew just about the easiest SEC schedule possible playing UM, Vandy, USC & LSU twice each. Even Bama, the best team we play twice is only 6-5. Women drew a similarly easy schedule, but it really doesn't matter for them.

Exactly right, except we don’t play LSU twice. Our 2x teams are UM, Alabama, Mizzou, Vandy, and USC. Bama and Mizzou are the only bubble teams in that group. Other teams in the league that have 2 games against one or more than one of Auburn, UT, and UK will get a big RPI bump. There may even be one team that has to play all 3 of those teams twice. Too lazy to look it up though.

 

[bruiser.sixpack]

Aren't we 17-6? With 7 regs to play, we would have to go 6-1 together to 23 wins.

 

[Junction John]

Bama gave us 18

 

[Go Budaw]

Bama gave us 18

Right, but also wrong. The North Georgia game was an exhibition for all intents and purposes as far as our resume is concerned. So basically we are 17-6.

 

[bruiser.sixpack]

That is what I meant. The North Georgia game doesn't count.

 

[RocketDawg]

Didn't we get beat by Alabama A&M when Ray was our coach? That's scary ... they're probably about equivalent to North Georgia, but I'd never heard of North Georgia before that game.

 

[VegasDawg13]

I thought it was never, but two things to consider about that stat:

1) The NCAA selection committee is in the process of de-emphasizing RPI. This will be the first season that their "nitty gritty report" on each team will feature BPI, KenPom, etc. in addition to RPI. We will likely see several resumes get in or be left out that would have done the opposite in prior years. This is bad for us because our RPI is higher than the other metrics.

2) Even if RPI were considered just as it always was, in order for a major conference team to be left out with a "safe" RPI, it would presumably take an unusual circumstance. Say a team gets that impressive RPI by going 11-1 against one of the worst non-conference schedules in the nation and then winning 11 more games against very good but never great competition, therefore lacking a signature win of any kind, all while winning an unusually high percentage of close games... That might just be the unusual circumstance that could make it happen.