The way I see it:
Next 3 games are @ Missouri (very tough game), @ Vandy, and home against OM.
Really gotta have 2 of those 3 without question.
Winning at least one of the two road games is paramount because road wins is currently a glaring black eye on our resume (only have one win outside of the state of MS).
I think the most likely result is 2-1 (lose the Mizzou game).
Then we have the home stretch, which is @ A&M, SC at home, UT at home, and @ LSU.
We need to go 3-1 against that stretch of teams.
UT provides a monster opportunity of a signature win that we currently don’t have.
We’ll probably be favored against SC and LSU and slight underdogs against both A&M and UT.
So, this is the stretch where we are going to need an upset somewhere.
Doing all of the above gets us to 11-7. That’s a reasonable goal, and I’d feel really good if we got there. However, depending on what everyone else does we still might need a win in the SEC tourney to lock up a bid.
If we can only get to 10-8, I think we need a minimum of two wins and possibly 3 in the tourney to get an at large. 9-9 or worse and we have to just go for broke at winning the conference tourney, because that will be our only chance.
Overall, it is doable, but we have absolutely no margin for error. Got to win all the ones we should, and at least one that we probably shouldn’t.