Buy/Sell

[engie]

As of right now, today, Tennessee is the toughest job in the country to actually win a national title? Thoughts? Only place in the country you have to beat Saban twice on any given year before you even get to play for all the marbles.

Allow me to edit this for clarity:
AMONG teams with expectations of actually competing for national titles or AMONG teams that have won national titles in the modern era or AMONG teams that consistently recruit well enough to feasibly win a national title. Among the places that you eventually get fired for not winning titles.

 

[8dog]

Sell. You only have to beat him once. In the seccg

 

[AssEndDawg]

Sell. You only have to beat him once. In the seccg

Uhhh.... you sure about that?

 

[Drebin]

Sell.

Toughest in the country? No.

One of the toughest in the SEC? Sure. Their program is nowhere near where it once was but in their fanbase's eyes it is a premier job. Tough to recruit to, and tough to live up to expectations there. I think it's a coaching graveyard.

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

Uhhh.... you sure about that?

He's right. You can lose in October to Saban and beat him in ATL to go to the Playoff (assuming you win the rest). But I buy engie's idea because it's the only job where you are pretty much guaranteed to face him twice (if you have a good year).

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

Sell.

Toughest in the country? No.

One of the toughest in the SEC? Sure. Their program is nowhere near where it once was but in their fanbase's eyes it is a premier job. Tough to recruit to, and tough to live up to expectations there. I think it's a coaching graveyard.

Agree. Their time is over. Recruiting disadvantages? Check. Terrible permanent opponent? Check. Completely unrealistic expectations that will never be realized? Check. Ugly uniforms? Check.

 

[AssEndDawg]

So I've said this before but I'll go again, BUY, that it is the toughest job in the country but not because of Saban (although that sure as **** don't help). It's the toughest job in the country because of the demographics of Eastern Tennessee and the realities of the SEC in this day and age where there is so much money available to everyone that having even more money isn't nearly as big of an advantage as it was back in the 80's. The 250 mile recruiting radius for UT is probably the worst in the SEC. They are forced to recruit nationally and that brings in a host of other issues to deal with. Players come without real knowledge of the culture of your program or the state they are moving into. They are usually playing for themselves and it takes a special coach to be able to make that work. You have to have someone who everyone on the team knows is the boss and who is a bigger star than any kid coming out of high school.

I think Saban does a fantastic job of this because he is simply heartless. You don't do your job, you are out and the next guy is in. Period. Oh, your a Senior? I don't care. Oh, you gave your entire life to this program? I don't care. Win or sit. Dan is not that guy, hell most coaches aren't that guy.

I think Dan is tuned to be a development coach. He needs time to design his team, he needs a consistent high school product, he is helped by the Mississippi JUCO system which churns out "quick win" players to patch holes. We had a few years of OTJ training, and we had some time where the previous ADs were a little tight on the Assistant Coaching purse strings. Anyway, I don't think UT is the place for Dan, they won't be patient, they won't let him build and there is nothing around the school to build from anyway! Now, a place like Georgia or even Texas A&M would be a place he could succeed. Good recruiting areas, decent human beings as fans, schools that can take the longer view and can understand what the business is about, places where they have a lot of fans with a little say and not a few big fans with a lot of power.

Florida is a dumpster fire with a huge amount of natural resources to draw from. They will be successful again and they will find someone to put up with the ******** they have to go through to do it, I just don't think Dan would go back. But I don't think UT is going to be successful again in my lifetime. I bet whoever they hire is gone in 4 years and we are all back talking about their next coach again.

 

[Drebin]

Toughest job in the country? The country? So you'd say it's easier to win a championship at South Alabama? That's why it's a sell.

 

[engie]

Toughest job in the country? The country? So you'd say it's easier to win a championship at South Alabama? That's why it's a sell.

There is a whole bunch of places that it is for all practical purposes impossible to win a national title at and whose fanbases harbor no such expectations. Those were not a part of the teams I intended to include in the question. Guess I should have spent more time on the qualifiers.

True or false: As of right now, today, it is easier on paper win a title at MSU than it is at Tennessee? It's still a tremendous gauntlet, but I am buying.

 

[engie]

He's right. You can lose in October to Saban and beat him in ATL to go to the Playoff (assuming you win the rest). But I buy engie's idea because it's the only job where you are pretty much guaranteed to face him twice (if you have a good year).

You absolutely must face him twice in that given year -- then if you manage to pull off a miracle -- you get to look forward to two games against Urban, Dabo, etc with a team that is totally beat to hell by Alabama.

 

[8dog]

Very sure

 

[engie]

Technically you wouldn't have to beat him at all if you are willing to run that far down the theoretical rabbit hole

 

[8dog]

A one loss conf champmin the cfp is not a rabbit hole. A two loss non champ is. Come one.

 

[engie]

A one loss conf champmin the cfp is not a rabbit hole. A two loss non champ is. Come one.

Losing to Saban but otherwise winning out -- then beating him in a game that really matters -- is a big rabbit hole in and of itself. There's a reason it has never been done yet. That's at least as big of rabbit hole than a two-loss conference champion making the CFP -- which is pretty likely to happen this very season.

 

[8dog]

But if tenn never beats him they are likely a non champ. Not a two loss champ. Because in this scenario you creates bama is in the seccg

 

[BogeyGolfer.sixpack]

Sell:

Tennessee can easily become has dominant as UGA has been this year. The east side of the SEC has been very, very weak for 10 years now. I hate to disappoint many of you, but if you don't think the right coach can go there and get kids our of Atlanta, Memphis, Carolina's or even Florida you are not thinking clearly. TN has the same issue that UF has had for the last 7-8 years, they have too much involvement from boosters, former coaches ( Fulmer, The Old Ball Coach etc..). If either of these schools make the right hire, and allow the person to do their jobs, watch out. I do not think Mullen is leaving for either, I do not think he is willing to put up with the BS at either school.

 

[8dog]

I just cant see players caring less about tenn than players at other schools. If they were winning they would all care. At the end of the day they have had terrible coaches

 

[engie]

A 10-2 non-champ with only losses to a likely undefeated #1 juggernaut.

You put Georgia's team in Tennessee's shoes this year -- go undefeated outside of two contested losses to Bama -- you've got a decent chance to get in if it shakes out how it looks like it will. We already had a non-champ get in last year -- and their loss was much worse than either of that team's losses would have been, while having better overall victories and body of work.

 

[DerHntr]

There is a whole bunch of places that it is for all practical purposes impossible to win a national title at and whose fanbases harbor no such expectations. Those were not a part of the teams I intended to include in the question. Guess I should have spent more time on the qualifiers.

True or false: As of right now, today, it is easier on paper win a title at MSU than it is at Tennessee? It's still a tremendous gauntlet, but I am buying.

You’d have to spend a lot of time creating qualifiers to get a Buy vote.

Toughest power 5 school? Sell
Toughest SEC school? Sell
Toughest East SEC school? Sell
Toughest school in Tennessee and in the SEC? Sell
Toughest school with strong National Title expectations from the fan base? Sell

For your T/F question: True today.

 

[engie]

Tennessee can easily become has dominant as UGA has been this year. The east side of the SEC has been very, very weak for 10 years now. I hate to disappoint many of you, but if you don't think the right coach can go there and get kids our of Atlanta, Memphis, Carolina's or even Florida you are not thinking clearly. TN has the same issue that UF has had for the last 7-8 years, they have too much involvement from boosters, former coaches ( Fulmer, The Old Ball Coach etc..). If either of these schools make the right hire, and allow the person to do their jobs, watch out. I do not think Mullen is leaving for either, I do not think he is willing to put up with the BS at either school.

They are getting the kids now. If you think the next coach is going to recruit clearly better, at least on paper, I don't know what to tell you. Tennessee does not have the same ceiling that Georgia does. Not without a generational, Saban-esque coaching hire. Which is a guy that would win big anywhere he goes. And their success relies on out-recruiting recently elite teams that rely heavily on the talent hotbeds that you describe. Who, nationally, is going to go to Atlanta and out-recruit Saban, Malzahn, Smart, Jimbo, Dabo, etc? All of which are closer to the majority of your listed recruiting hotbeds than Tennessee. That's what you are asking that coach to do in order to ascend to the level you attribute to them.

Tennessee today has the #12 team talent level nationally per 247.

 

[CochiseCowbell]

"Now, a place like Georgia... decent human beings"

How many UGA fans have you met or lived amidst?

 

[engie]

You’d have to spend a lot of time creating qualifiers to get a Buy vote.

Toughest power 5 school? Sell
Toughest SEC school? Sell
Toughest East SEC school? Sell
Toughest school in Tennessee and in the SEC? Sell
Toughest school with strong National Title expectations from the fan base? Sell

For your T/F question: True today.

It only needs one, which was actually meant in the initial statement. Just not spelled out/thought out in distraction.

"Among teams that have a theoretical chance to win a national title based on recruiting level". Which means a top 10-18 recruiter depending on which metric you are following and how far back they consider relevant.

• [FONT=proxima_nova_condsemibold]Rank[/FONT]​
  [FONT=proxima_nova_condsemibold]Team
  
  
  • 
    [*=center]Total
    [*=center]5
    [*=center]4
    [*=center]3
    [*=center]Avg
  [/FONT]
  [FONT=proxima_nova_condsemibold]Pts[/FONT]
  
• 1
  ​
  
  Alabama
  
  • 
    [*=center]Total: 84
    [*=center]5: 18
    [*=center]4: 51
    [*=center]3: 13
    [*=center]93.33
  
  997.57
  
• 2
  ​
  
  Ohio State
  
  • 
    [*=center]Total: 85
    [*=center]5: 7
    [*=center]4: 56
    [*=center]3: 20
    [*=center]92.13
  
  955.51
  
• 3
  ​
  
  USC
  
  • 
    [*=center]Total: 85
    [*=center]5: 8
    [*=center]4: 41
    [*=center]3: 31
    [*=center]90.81
  
  934.00
  
• 4
  ​
  
  Georgia
  
  • 
    [*=center]Total: 85
    [*=center]5: 11
    [*=center]4: 43
    [*=center]3: 31
    [*=center]91.06
  
  930.34
  
• 5
  ​
  
  Florida State
  
  • 
    [*=center]Total: 83
    [*=center]5: 10
    [*=center]4: 38
    [*=center]3: 33
    [*=center]90.94
  
  924.97
  
• 6
  ​
  
  LSU
  
  • 
    [*=center]Total: 84
    [*=center]5: 4
    [*=center]4: 48
    [*=center]3: 30
    [*=center]90.60
  
  907.10
  
• 7
  ​
  
  Michigan
  
  • 
    [*=center]Total: 85
    [*=center]5: 3
    [*=center]4: 46
    [*=center]3: 33
    [*=center]89.94
  
  874.89
  
• 8
  ​
  
  Auburn
  
  • 
    [*=center]Total: 77
    [*=center]5: 4
    [*=center]4: 41
    [*=center]3: 30
    [*=center]89.82
  
  854.15
  
• 9
  ​
  
  Clemson
  
  • 
    [*=center]Total: 77
    [*=center]5: 6
    [*=center]4: 34
    [*=center]3: 31
    [*=center]89.21
  
  853.65
  
• 10
  ​
  
  Notre Dame
  
  • 
    [*=center]Total: 81
    [*=center]5: 0
    [*=center]4: 46
    [*=center]3: 33
    [*=center]89.41
  
  837.71
  
• 11
  ​
  
  UCLA
  
  • 
    [*=center]Total: 85
    [*=center]5: 6
    [*=center]4: 31
    [*=center]3: 43
    [*=center]88.58
  
  830.58
  
• 12
  ​
  
  Tennessee
  
  • 
    [*=center]Total: 85
    [*=center]5: 2
    [*=center]4: 30
    [*=center]3: 49
    [*=center]88.36
  
  817.35
  
• 13
  ​
  
  Texas
  
  • 
    [*=center]Total: 77
    [*=center]5: 1
    [*=center]4: 35
    [*=center]3: 39
    [*=center]88.88
  
  811.03
  
• 14
  ​
  
  Stanford
  
  • 
    [*=center]Total: 85
    [*=center]5: 3
    [*=center]4: 29
    [*=center]3: 49
    [*=center]88.15
  
  810.31
  
• 15
  ​
  
  Texas A&M
  
  • 
    [*=center]Total: 84
    [*=center]5: 3
    [*=center]4: 29
    [*=center]3: 46
    [*=center]87.89
  
  807.14
  
• 16
  ​
  
  Oklahoma
  
  • 
    [*=center]Total: 84
    [*=center]5: 2
    [*=center]4: 35
    [*=center]3: 42
    [*=center]88.01
  
  801.39
  
• 17
  ​
  
  Florida
  
  • 
    [*=center]Total: 83
    [*=center]5: 2
    [*=center]4: 26
    [*=center]3: 51
    [*=center]87.73
  
  795.72
  
• 18
  ​
  
  Ole Miss
  
  • 
    [*=center]Total: 85
    [*=center]5: 3
    [*=center]4: 24
    [*=center]3: 50
    [*=center]87.46
  
  794.86
  
• 19
  ​
  
  Penn State
  
  • 
    [*=center]Total: 85
    [*=center]5: 1
    [*=center]4: 33
    [*=center]3: 48
    [*=center]87.89
  
  779.49
  
• 20
  ​
  
  Miami
  
  • 
    [*=center]Total: 73
    [*=center]5: 1
    [*=center]4: 24
    [*=center]3: 45
    [*=center]87.74
  
  751.65
  
• 21
  ​
  
  Arizona State
  
  • 
    [*=center]Total: 79
    [*=center]5: 1
    [*=center]4: 21
    [*=center]3: 50
    [*=center]86.60
  
  720.44
  
• 22
  ​
  
  Arkansas
  
  • 
    [*=center]Total: 85
    [*=center]5: 1
    [*=center]4: 21
    [*=center]3: 62
    [*=center]86.42
  
  718.34
  
• 23
  ​
  
  Oregon
  
  • 
    [*=center]Total: 75
    [*=center]5: 0
    [*=center]4: 19
    [*=center]3: 51
    [*=center]86.77
  
  717.47
  
• 24
  ​
  
  Washington
  
  • 
    [*=center]Total: 85
    [*=center]5: 0
    [*=center]4: 23
    [*=center]3: 55
    [*=center]85.98
  
  706.52
  
• 25
  ​
  
  Mississippi State
  
  • 
    [*=center]Total: 83
    [*=center]5: 1
    [*=center]4: 15
    [*=center]3: 57
    [*=center]85.47
  
  698.00
  
• 
  

 

[8dog]

There is actual evidence that a one loss conf champ actually makes it. So to say thats as big a stretch as a two loss non champ making it is silly.

however, if tenn losing to bama twice making the cfp is just as likely as a one loss conf champ (which actually happens) it furthers the point its not the hardest job to win a natty because of playing bama twice—running counter to your OP

 

[engie]

There is actual evidence that a one loss conf champ actually makes it. So to say thats as big a stretch as a two loss non champ making it is silly.

however, if tenn losing to bama twice making the cfp is just as likely as a one loss conf champ (which actually happens) it furthers the point its not the hardest job to win a natty because of playing bama twice—running counter to your OP

You missed what I was saying. Multiple times actually. Ohio St got in last year as a one loss team that didn't even get to play for their conference title game. They lost to Pittsburgh. Their resume was not better than Georgia's resume would be had they lost twice to Saban this year.

Also, I was not speaking in generalities on the situation with one/two losses making the playoff. I meant it specific -- and I stated it specifically. Beating Saban in a conference championship game after he has already seen you that year is what makes the majority of the implausibility of the situation -- and then having to beat other elite teams after Bama has destroyed you physically. It was not some random theoretical situation in another conference against another coach who isn't as good and team that isn't as good or physical.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

BUY in terms of P5 and natty is the goal and mediocrity is failure and guarantees to be fired at multiple 7-5 or 8-4s.

I think if Butch Jones was likable and didn't sound like an idiot in press conferences talking about "winning the day" and **** he would have another year.

 

[8dog]

So you admit your original statement that you would have to beat them twice is wrong correct? Because they wouldnt have to.

 

[8dog]

So you think its easier to win a natty at wake forest, vandy, kansas, or rutgers than tennessee?

 

[engie]

So you admit your original statement that you would have to beat them twice is wrong correct? Because they wouldnt have to.

You are really trying hard to be disagreeable today aren't you? Yeah -- if you are willing to go far enough down the theoretical rabbit hole -- my initial statement was incorrect. And if we are going down that hole, they technically don't have to beat them at all. So, it was double ridiculous. It is certainly possible they get in with the path you describe -- but FAR from a lock. Especially when an undefeated Bama team would already be locked in regardless of that game in more years than not due to a MUCH better resume off a MUCH better schedule.

A one-loss team from the SECe whose only marquee win on the season would be in the SECchampionship game would NOT be a lock for the playoffs. They would be ~ the final likely outcome of Wisconsin this year.

 

[engie]

So you think its easier to win a natty at wake forest, vandy, kansas, or rutgers than tennessee?

Who said this? None of those teams are competing for national titles nor in the conversation. But you would be correct in stating that they do all have infinitely easier roads than Tennessee.

Maybe that is the simplest way to make the intended initial statement. "Tennessee actually has the toughest road to the national championship of any team in the country for as long as Saban stays at Alabama and the current SEC Scheduling Model is intact".

 

[8dog]

SIXPACK REMEMBERS:

“- if you are willing to go far enough down the theoretical rabbit hole -- my initial statement was incorrect.”

had to use that nonsensical qualifier though. Couldnt resist

 

[8dog]

Lol. You said all this. And the poster i responded too bought. LOLRutgers has an easier path than tenn.

You do realize that the evidence actually says ms state is he hardest job. The greatest coach we have ever had is 0-9 against saban. Tenn has just had terrible coaches. Yall are way underestimating them. Is it the 90s.? No. But still tons of potential. They recruit just like om did when it built a team that beat saban two years in a row.

 

[TrueMaroonGrind]

Sell. You only have to beat him once. In the seccg

Only gotta beat them once, but gotta play them twice. Also have to play Georgia who has gotten it going and if Florida ever gets going, my goodness. This all makes it a really tough job. Maybe not the toughest in the country, but it's up there.

I'll sell, but would buy if you said they have the toughest path to the national championship. There are many schools that would have a harder time winning a natty. i.e. UMASS, UAB, Kansas... etc

 

[TheStateUofMS]

What's the recruiting disadvantage? Georgia is right there. Florida isn't that far. South Carolina has some good football as does NC. TN does put out some good players especially in Memphis. They can also reach into VA and recruit nationally some like they always have.

They haven't recruited worse than 25 and were mostly mid teens with 3 top 7 finishes in the past 7 years.

They have some talent, just haven't had a good coach. Go watch Butch Jones on SEC Inside. He's bad.

 

[engie]

The greatest coach we have ever had is 0-9 against saban. Tenn has just had terrible coaches. Yall are way underestimating them. Is it the 90s.? No. But still tons of potential. They recruit just like om did when it built a team that beat saban two years in a row.

Has any coach in Tennessee history beaten Saban? Maybe Fulmer once?

Neither of those OM teams that allegedly beat Alabama had to do it twice in the same season. There has been one west team that tried, which was arguably a top 10 team of the past decade. How did that game turn out again?

 

[engie]

SIXPACK REMEMBERS:

“- if you are willing to go far enough down the theoretical rabbit hole -- my initial statement was incorrect.”

had to use that nonsensical qualifier though. Couldnt resist

Remind me how many regular season SEC losses have been avenged in the SEC title game. Remind me how many cross-division rivals have ever met in the SEC Championship game. But you think you are presenting a realistic or likely scenario? Any idea on those numbers? 1 in 50 I believe it is. Of course, the one avenging was Saban on Fulmer. Just not at Alabama.

I'll give you one that is infinitely more likely -- you build one of the best teams in the country and go undefeated until you see Saban. He rapes your soul(regular season). Your team is beat up and disheartened and then drops another one or two. And you miss the SEC title game altogether. How many guys have even beaten him twice in a row period? 2? And you think a team is going to come back and get him in that game after he's already seen them?

Butch Jones won back to back Big East conference titles and finished ranked twice in 3 years at Cincinnati. He won 2 conference titles in 3 years prior to that at Central Michigan. And finished ranked there. 4 conference championships in 6 years with 3 final regular season rankings. And Bob Shoop was considered on the same level as all of the elite DCs in the SECw when they hired him. Tennessee's problems run FAR deeper than "simply not hiring a good coach".

 

[8dog]

At this point i have no idea what you are arguing

lets get back to the original
point—if tennessee loses to bama in the reg season and beats them in the title game to go 12-1 they go to the playoff. Dont have to beat them twice. Now speculating whether that happens is what we call a theoretical rabbithole

 

[engie]

If Tennessee goes 12-1 right now, this season, they could very well be left at home based on SOS right alongside Wisconsin. Two good wins. Three good games total. Your hypothetical situation spouted as an absolute truth doesn't even necessarily work for THIS SEASON.

Sure, it COULD happen how you describe and they get in. Just like they could lose to Bama twice and still get in. The only way they are a lock for as long as the east still sucks is to win them all and/or go win elite non-con games every season. Georgia being back relevant certainly helps their case.

 

[thekimmer]

Sell...

As of right now, today, Tennessee is the toughest job in the country to actually win a national title? Thoughts? Only place in the country you have to beat Saban twice on any given year before you even get to play for all the marbles.

There are scores of programs across the country that have a much tougher job winning a natty than UT. The thing that makes UT a bit unique though is that their athletic department has elite wealth.

Now if you modified the parameters a bit, I might buy. That is, I would buy that they have the toughest job winning a NC among teams in the top 10 richest athletic programs.

 

[sandwolf.sixpack]

There is a whole bunch of places that it is for all practical purposes impossible to win a national title at and whose fanbases harbor no such expectations. Those were not a part of the teams I intended to include in the question. Guess I should have spent more time on the qualifiers.

True or false: As of right now, today, it is easier on paper win a title at MSU than it is at Tennessee? It's still a tremendous gauntlet, but I am buying.

Your qualifier below automatically makes the answer 'False'.....

It only needs one, which was actually meant in the initial statement. Just not spelled out/thought out in distraction.

"Among teams that have a theoretical chance to win a national title based on recruiting level". Which means a top 10-18 recruiter depending on which metric you are following and how far back they consider relevant.

 

[engie]

Us winning a national title would be the biggest Cinderella story in the history of college football. We do not have a realistic chance to win it all by any historic metric. Us winning a SEC title would be the biggest Cinderella story in the history of SEC football. Something that no one other than LSU, Bama, Auburn, Tenn, Georgia, and Florida has done in the last 50ish years. That's the harsh reality of the climb.

We will however be knocking on the door to that range of overall talent next season by the rankings. We lose 2 4*s and 8 cumulative mid-level 3*s. And gain ~ 5-6 4*s and 20 cumulative mostly high level 3*s. Plus this will be the best offer sheet class we've had even though it might not be the highest ranked.