Reasons for SEC downturn?

[thekimmer]

Regardless of whether you think the SEC is down or not there is definitely a huge lack of parity between top 4 and rest of league. The #4 team is probably 20 points better than #5.

So what are the reasons for this?

More simplistic, is the bigger issue players or coaches?

 

[GloryDawg]

Regardless of whether you think the SEC is down or not there is definitely a huge lack of parity between top 4 and rest of league. The #4 team is probably 20 points better than #5.

So what are the reasons for this?

More simplistic, is the bigger issue players or coaches?

Coaches. As long as Saban is at Bama coaching will be down in the SEC.

 

[8dog]

The 4 is 20 points better than the 5? Who is the 4?

The issue is with the big schools like tamu lsu tenn and fla lacking good coaching and qb play.

 

[patdog]

Nick Saban. Good coaches would rather coach in the ACC or Big 10 than have to beat Saban, so that's where they've all been going the last 5-8 years. SEC coaching hires have been very mediocre for several years.

 

[8dog]

Like who? Im not disagreeing thats it easier to win elsewhere but its not like these big schools are always striking out looking for their guy

 

[drt7891]

I'm not sure if there is a specific reasons, but think of all the former and recycled SEC coordinators that have been hired in recent years. SEC schools won't hardly look at mid major coaches for coaching hires and outside Brett belima at arky, no one from power 5 leagues has taken a job that I can recall. Saban was the most recent and he came from the NFL, Technicaly.

 

[aTotal360]

Having Meyer, Petrino, Franklin and Spurrier gone has left a void. And elite programs like UF and Tenn relentlessly shitting the bed makes the problem even more visible. While still a true American treasure, Bert is slipping (while wearing beats). Add the fact that Bama beating everyone all the time, makes you think conference is extremely top heavy. I personally still think it's as deep as ever.

 

[PBRME]

The top schools are sucking up all the elite talent in the SEC recruiting areas.

 

[BulldogBlitz]

Too much pot and spice usage.**

 

[patdog]

Meyer. Franklin. Harbaugh. Richt. Mendenhall. Petrino. All hired in the last 5 years in the Big 10 or ACC.

 

[Msubulldogfan1]

Regardless of whether you think the SEC is down or not there is definitely a huge lack of parity between top 4 and rest of league. The #4 team is probably 20 points better than #5.

So what are the reasons for this?

More simplistic, is the bigger issue players or coaches?

IIRC, bama has 80 or so 4-5* players. Some of those are players that could have went to State, OM, UK, USCe, etc.

 

[BogeyGolfer.sixpack]

It's not just about coaching...

1. Qb play is the most important and biggest factor for recent slump in the SEC downturn.
2. Recruiting around the country has improved especially on offense. The south still tends to have elite talent along the D-Line but not at every position any longer.
3. Scheduling: take a look at an ACC schedule or Pac 12 schedule, these teams do have to play in an enviroment like UGA and then AU back to back weeks.
4. Lack of dynamic offenses, I think that a lot of schools outside of the sec have better offensive schemes.
5. Saban: The fact that they recruit at such a high level and have 5 star guys two and three deep is bad for college football and especially the SEC.
6. Coaching: who would want to deal with the pressure at a school like LSU who are already talking about firing a coach 3-4 games in to the season?

 

[TheStateUofMS]

It's 100% coaching. SEC still putting more players in the NFL, more underclassmen and signing more and more top recruits. We would be the #3 recruiter this year in any other conference. Instead we're number 5 or 6 right now, but the difference in the top few spots and the mid of the pack SEC is huge. #20 recruiting type classes is near the top in the ACC, but SEC you're in the middle and classes 5-8 in the rankings are ELITE classes and have a few real difference makers rather than have an elite player or two and bunch of B to B+ players.

To beat Bama, UGA, Auburn and UF talent when it's fully developed, takes players like they have. Very few times will you see a fully developed Bama, UGA, Aub or UF team lose to an inferior opponent. Right now those school have maximized their development for this year and the players fully bought into their coaches.

 

[thekimmer]

Good point....

The 4 is 20 points better than the 5? Who is the 4?

The issue is with the big schools like tamu lsu tenn and fla lacking good coaching and qb play.

The drop off is between #3 and #4.

 

[thekimmer]

I agree it is more coaching than players. Numerous programs have whiffed on hires and some multiple times. I also think that bama fatigue has been a factor too.

 

[HumpDawgy]

It's also talent acquisition. Saban told the AD before he was hired if the AD thought Saban was a great coach. He told the AD he wasn't, but he was a great recruiter who will bring in top talent and win. All Saban has done is stockpiled talent since he has been there. He loses a lot of players early to the draft and doesn't miss a beat. He loses players to injury and doesn't miss a beat. He loses coaches to promotions and doesn't miss a beat. He recruits players like Lashley who might be starting for us, but is buried on their roster. He will not only bring in a roster of 85 schollys with blue chip talent, but also bring in preferred walk-ons who refused schollys at other good schools. It's a big difference between their talent level than everyone else.

The poster above mentioned good coaches not wanting to coach here because they know their roster will be nothing like Saban's roster. No other conference has this situation. ACC has taken advantage of this and so has Big 10.

 

[thekimmer]

I agree with the talent stockpiling but....


Coaching, or perhaps more apt, team management is vital as well. Case in point are the disasters that were/are mississippi and now LSU under the the ogre. Both of those programs had/have waaaay more talent than their performance would indicate.

 

[Bulldogg31]

Impatient and unrealistic fans and boosters have led to terrible coaches at big time schools. Saban effect.

 

[Wizard.sixpack]

Alabama
Georgia
Auburn




Mississippi State
Texas A&M







Everyone else.

 

[thekimmer]

Or more like this....

Bama


Georgia
Auburn







State
TAM


Everybody else









UM
Mizzou

 

[TheStateUofMS]

Actually, he develops the talent as well as any one, which is why 5 star players transfer, Lashely sits the bench and players leave early and he reloads...it's because he recruits the best and develops them into the best.

 

[Crazy Cotton]

Way underestimating impact of overall player quality. Hugh 17ing Freeze beat Saban 2 of his last 3 years, and probably should have beat him last year. Ole miss also had their best recruiting years ever in that time period. Saban is great because he gets better players than anybody. Does he run a tight ship? Yep. Is he the best recruiter in football? absolutely. Does he have an old spiral notebook with magic plays that are impossible to defend? nope.

 

[8dog]

Yeah that list really doesnt support the argument. For starters harbaugh was only leaving pro for one job. And richt and petrino were pushed out if the sec

 

[olblue.sixpack]

Yeah that list really doesnt support the argument. For starters harbaugh was only leaving pro for one job. And richt and petrino were pushed out if the sec

And while Urban was technically out of coaching, I think Ohio State is a better job than Florida anyway so IMHO that was a move up the food chain. And who wouldn't leave Vandy for Penn State? To your point, I don't remember any SEC schools offering Harbaugh before he took a top 10 job at his alma mater.

You are right about Richt and Petrino - their exits from the SEC had everything to do with wanting/needing jobs. There were four jobs that were filled the year Petrino came out of exile - UK, Auburn, Arkansas and UT. Does anybody really believe Petrino would have picked Western Kentucky over any of those programs if given an opportunity?

 

[GloryDawg]

Way underestimating impact of overall player quality. Hugh 17ing Freeze beat Saban 2 of his last 3 years, and probably should have beat him last year. Ole miss also had their best recruiting years ever in that time period. Saban is great because he gets better players than anybody. Does he run a tight ship? Yep. Is he the best recruiter in football? absolutely. Does he have an old spiral notebook with magic plays that are impossible to defend? nope.

Saban does things with his four and five stars that no one else does. He developed them into super stars.

 

[patdog]

All are better coaches than the majority of SEC hires the last few years. The reasons why don't matter.

 

[ColoradoDawg]

I think Saban has slowly crushed everyone's spirits. LSU fired Les Mile because he couldn't beat Saban and he was the only other coach in the SEC West that fielded perennial top-10 teams.

Also, the SEC was on top for so long that it was only a matter of time before other conferences caught up. 7 national championships in a row is a lot.

 

[8dog]

But thats hindsight. Most of the coaches that were hired like jones or mcelwain or sumlin or bielema were regarded as highly or better than a franklin or a mendenhall. So hiring bc of saban isnt really an issue

As for franklin, i dont think anyone in the sec was hiring when he took that job.

 

[patdog]

I'll give you Bielema and Sumlin. Disagree on Jones and McElwain. Thought those were terrible hires from day one.

 

[Boosh]

Saban effect. Too many coaching changes at other schools and an unwillingness for good coaches to enter the league. While everyone scrambles to find some magic coach, he builds a staff unlike any other with technical assistants that would be coaches anywhere else to assist the Assistant coaches in game planning and recruiting. Is there really any doubt where the top recruits are going to go inside the conference? I know that I underestimate just how far above everyone they are as a program right now. I think it has made College Football very boring, at least in the SEC. Thank goodness for Clemson beating them last year or the numbers would be stratospheric.

 

[HumpDawgy]

I agree with the talent stockpiling but....


Coaching, or perhaps more apt, team management is vital as well. Case in point are the disasters that were/are mississippi and now LSU under the the ogre. Both of those programs had/have waaaay more talent than their performance would indicate.

Saban was the one who said he didn't consider himself a great coach, but a great recruiter. That was out of his mouth to a reporter. Yes, he knows how to coach and yes....he has good coaches.....and yes..he knows how to manage a big time D1 program (see Michigan State, LSU for reference). The amount of talent Saban has acquired is WAY more than most all programs in the NCAA. Yes, Clemson and Ole Miss snuck up and beat them which can always happen, but Dabo nor Freeze had anywhere near the talent Saban had. They just were better on those particular days.

Just look at Saban's coaches who have moved on to head coaching jobs. Other than Kirby kicking butt at his alma mater this year, who has done anything? Anyone.......Bueller?

 

[MSUDAWGFAN]

Does he run a tight ship? Yep.

Saban had a Cam Robinson get arrested in Louisiana for illegal gun possession. The DA dropped the case because "I'm not going to ruin the future of a young man who spent his childhood outside when other kids spent theirs inside in air conditioning." If Saban really ran a tight ship, he would have been kicked off the team. Tim Williams admitted in the NFL combine he failed 3 drug tests, but never missed one second of playing time. If Saban really ran a tight ship, he would have been kicked off the team. But he wasn't. If it had been some 3rd or 4th stringer, I'm sure Saban would kick him off and say he runs a tight ship, but if he can play to the level of a first or second rounder, Saban isn't kicking him off the team. Let's let the myth that Saban runs a tight ship go, because he doesn't.

 

[MSU601Dawg]

Meyer. Franklin. Harbaugh. Richt. Mendenhall. Petrino. All hired in the last 5 years in the Big 10 or ACC.

Agreed, it's incredibly simple.

When the SEC was at its apex it had Meyer, Saban, Petrino, Franklin, Miles, Richt, Mullen, Freeze, Pinkel, and Spurrier.

UF huge downturn after Meyer
Ark huge downturn after Petrino
Vandy big step back after Franklin
Mizzou HUGE step back after Pinkel
OM no matter what you think about Freeze, he had 2-3 really, really good teams. Terrible now
South Carolina had a 4-5 year run best in school history under Spurrier. Will they ever get there again?
LSU... yeah maybe Miles wasn't great, but he won 10 or 11 ALOT... and they replaced him with ORGERON

Only school that's upgraded is UGA, and that may be a tad presumptious as Richt won 10 nearly every year he was there.


League is still getting the best talent, still sending the most players to the NFL, but most other Power 5 leagues are just as good, and 4-10 I'd say more than one league is better than the SEC (ACC, maybe Big 12, maybe B1G, and maybe even Pac 10 as the SEC's 4th best team lost to UCLA who went 4-8 last year)

 

[UpTheMiddlex3Punt]

Coaches. Good coaches stay away because they know with Saban in the league they have little chance. Also, many schools have put in incredibly stoopid buyout clauses for their coaches. Bert and Sumlin might hang around after this season because it's too expensive to get rid of them and there's no guarantee they'll get a good coach. Not saying those schools won't fire them, and even if they do they will still have to come up with the money for a new coach.

The best opportunity for any SEC school is to go after Chip Kelly in the offseason.

 

[kired]

The issue is with the big schools like tamu lsu tenn and fla lacking good coaching and qb play.

This is the biggest "problem" with the SEC. Teams that are supposed to be in the upper half of the league are no better than the traditional bottom half of the league. And it's all because of subpar coaching, or poor play at the most important position on the field. Of course I think the bottom half has taken a step up as well.

I'd also say the revolving door of SEC assistant coaches doesn't help either. Every school in the nation is looking for sec assistant coaches they can hire away. We wonder why our defense sucks - we've had more defensive coaches than I can name in the last 4 years. That is terrible for development.

 

[Palos verdes]

It's a combination of things.

The game has changed with the various spread systems out now, and it's easy for just about anyone to have success with them.

Some schools have coaches that were hired at a bad time, or run schemes that are outdated, and should not have been hired. Very few programs can pull that off.

Current strength and conditioning programs have evened the playing field a lot. You have FCS programs doing the same stuff as Bama for years now.

Saban and his dynasty have probably turned a few really good coaching prospects to look elsewhere for a job. Forcing some schools to hire down.

SEC has historically been dominant defensively. With offenses scoring record numbers of points all across the land, defenses are still way behind the curve. Thus, the SEC's bread and butter has turned stale.

 

[Dogariffic]

We wonder why our defense sucks - we've had more defensive coaches than I can name in the last 4 years. That is terrible for development.

Pretty sure the D Coaches were "run off" as much as hired away! Some of them were ok for a bit but no real long term game changers.

 

[BoilerUp.sixpack]

This is a good point but specifically, which coaches have turned down SEC jobs for other schools (not including fires or upgrades)?

 

[BiscuitEater]

He will not only bring in a roster of 85 schollys with blue chip talent, but also bring in preferred walk-ons who refused schollys at other good schools. It's a big difference between their talent level than everyone else.

He ALSO 'processes' ~6-10 players EVERY year and NOBODY says a thing. Winning does that.

 

[engie]

By the NFL draft, there is yet to be a noted downturn that I'm aware of, indicative of lower overall talent in the league.

Florida - Meyer to Mc - Huge Downgrade
SCe - Spurrier to Muschamp - Downgrade
Georgia - Richt to Smart - Push at this point with potential to upgrade
Vandy - Franklin to Mason - Downgrade
Mizzou - Pinkel to Odom - Huge Downgrade. Pinkel was one of the most underrated coaches in the country for years.
Kentucky - Brooks to Stoops - Push due to Stoops' recruiting -- initial downgrade

Bama - same
State - same with a young head coach that seems to be improving his major flaws a little bit every year
OM - Nutt to Freeze to ? - faux upgrade, with downgrade coming
Aub - Tubs to Chiz - a downgrade but Malzahn is an upgrade. I'll call it a wash between Tubs and Malzahn as of right now
LSU - Miles to O - Lol Downgrade
aTm - Sherman to Sumlin - wash with JFF lightning in a bottle. Better recruiting on paper but fewer first rounders on the field.
Ark - Petrino to Bielema - Downgrade

The coaching in the league has regressed big time. And we aren't overspending compared to everyone else like we were there for awhile.