Anyone that's a 4* in all of the first 3 services that rank him is probably a 4*. A lot of times someone will be a 4* in the first service that ranks them early in the process and it will be a misnomer. Jonnas Spivey comes to mind on that from back when I was really following closely.
That said, the MS rankings while having improved are still a crapshoot. I like the 247 individual ranking more than the composite for that reason, because they actually invest time and eyeballs here. Although it seems to have gotten worse from a distance in the recent years.
Several of the services work like this:
- Get a power 5 offer, you are a 3*.
- Get multiple power 5 offers, you are a high 3*.
- Get invited to an All-American game, you are a 4*.
- Light up the MS/AL game and subsequent all-star games, you are a 4*. Although they won't admit it, this is when many of these players actually get evaluated by the national guys for the first time unless they get invited to/go to one of the huge camps as a JR. Their ratings up until that point based on above criteria. And often guys will light up the MS/AL game and still be 3*s because they effectively "came out of nowhere" since they committed early and kept a low recruiting profile.
- Actually have elite programs competing for you down to the wire, you are a high 4*. Meet that plus the all-star criteria, you might be a 5*.
None of that requires one minute of actual player evaluation. Just looking at compiled data. Which is why Paul/Robbie/Steve have a better handle on what these players are than anyone else does, because they are actually going to the games and getting to know more about them.