Well, both TTech and NC State are decently ranked in KenPom. TTech is 24th with a 23rd ranked offense and 45th ranked defense. Their SOS is 31, but their non-con SOS sucked at 263rd.
NC State is 58th with the 47th offense and 89th defense. SOS was 58th and non-con SOS a paltry 315th.
If we were to look on paper, it'd be safe to say NC State's little run ends with Texas Tech. And given Tech knows how to put up some numbers and play defense, the odds are probably 50/50 that they end UK's run.
So I'll say this - if we are to lose in the first weekend, it will be to Texas Tech (50/50 chance depending on matchups and if we show up). If we make it through TTech, I think we'll face Florida and win that one for a chance at Houston (no guarantee they get through A&M, Duke or possibly a huge cinderella in James Madison).
The first risk is Texas Tech.
The next one is a rematch with UF or face-off with #2 Marquette (my pick is a Florida rematch).
Then one of Houston, Puke, A&M or JMU for a chance at the FF.