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My current top 16…

A

Aike

Heisman
Mar 17, 2002
75,460
46,455
90
Cats rise a couple spots to number 9…

1. Zona
2. Iowa St
3. UCONN
4. Houston
5. BYU
6. FAU
7. Colorado St
8. Purdue
9. Kentucky Wildcats Basketball
10. Alabama
11. Virginia
12. Colorado
13. Marquette
14. Kansas
15. Tennessee
16. Auburn
 
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storm1507

storm1507

All-American
Sep 24, 2022
1,738
7,646
103
Aike said:
Cats rise a couple spots to number 9…

1. Zona
2. Iowa St
3. UCONN
4. Houston
5. BYU
6. FAU
7. Colorado St
8. Purdue
9. Kentucky Wildcats Basketball
10. Alabama
11. Virginia
12. Colorado
13. Marquette
14. Kansas
15. Tennessee
16. Auburn
Click to expand...
What variable(s) causes Iowa St. to rank so high in your system?
 
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U

ukcatz12

Heisman
Mar 27, 2009
5,199
12,325
0
Ranking formulas like this always get more accurate as the season progresses and the dataset it's built on gets bigger. Same thing goes for Kenpom, which relies a lot on the previous season's data at the start and phases it out until it's not considered at all, which happens around the new year I believe.

So for people questioning this ranking that's one reason why.
 
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A

Aike

Heisman
Mar 17, 2002
75,460
46,455
90
ukcatz12 said:
Ranking formulas like this always get more accurate as the season progresses and the dataset it's built on gets bigger. Same thing goes for Kenpom, which relies a lot on the previous season's data at the start and phases it out until it's not considered at all, which happens around the new year I believe.

So for people questioning this ranking that's one reason why.
Click to expand...
People lose their minds over this stuff. We beat Miami by 22 but lost to UNCW. Which team are we?

I finally stopped posting last year because the trolls were over the top.

Guess what they were maddest about? They didn’t think I had Purdue and Bama high enough, and they thought I had UCONN too high. Huh.
 
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M

Montana81

Heisman
Aug 12, 2004
82,727
29,410
113
Fancatstik said:
Iowa St number two, I think this formula needs adjustment.
Click to expand...

It’s not necessarily ranking who the best teams are. It’s an attempt to rank who has the best chance to win the most games in the tourney.

There’s decades of evidence that suggest teams that do specific things exceptionally fare better in March than teams that do a lot of things well. Then you have teams like this years Arizona that’s just doing seemingly everything exceptionally.

It makes sense that in a one and done tourney with shorter prep time for every other game there could be a greater emphasis on specific aspects of the game.
 
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A

Aike

Heisman
Mar 17, 2002
75,460
46,455
90
Montana81 said:
It’s not necessarily ranking who the best teams are. It’s an attempt to rank who has the best chance to win the most games in the tourney.

There’s decades of evidence that suggest teams that do specific things exceptionally fare better in March than teams that do a lot of things well. Then you have teams like this years Arizona that’s just doing seemingly everything exceptionally.

It makes sense that in a one and done tourney with shorter prep time for every other game there could be a greater emphasis on specific aspects of the game.
Click to expand...
Exactly. We also have 3 months left. All these teams have plenty of time to validate their positions, or fall off.
 
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Son_Of_Saul

Son_Of_Saul

Hall of Famer
Dec 7, 2007
45,984
102,284
113
Aike said:
People lose their minds over this stuff. We beat Miami by 22 but lost to UNCW. Which team are we?

I finally stopped posting last year because the trolls were over the top.

Guess what they were maddest about? They didn’t think I had Purdue and Bama high enough, and they thought I had UCONN too high. Huh.
Click to expand...
@Aike , don't let the moronic haters get to you. We have a ton of fly-by posters here who don't understand that your ranking system is based on statistics.
 
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U

UK90

Heisman
Dec 30, 2007
31,460
27,816
0
Aike said:
Cats rise a couple spots to number 9…

1. Zona
2. Iowa St
3. UCONN
4. Houston
5. BYU
6. FAU
7. Colorado St
8. Purdue
9. Kentucky Wildcats Basketball
10. Alabama
11. Virginia
12. Colorado
13. Marquette
14. Kansas
15. Tennessee
16. Auburn
Click to expand...
Like others, not sure how you rank Purdue so low with wins over Arizona, Marquette, Tennessee, Gonzaga, Alabama, Xavier and Iowa.

Nobody else has nearly as impressive a collection of wins so far.
 
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B

Bowfreak.

All-Conference
Mar 26, 2009
1,830
3,121
66
Aike has posted this information for how long and people still have no clue what it means.

When I read how do you have so and so ranked so high or low lets me know that for the most part people do not pay attention.
 
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K

king of cali

All-Conference
Nov 24, 2005
6,955
3,877
0
bowfreak said:
Aike has posted this information for how long and people still have no clue what it means.

When I read how do you have so and so ranked so high or low lets me know that for the most part people do not pay attention.
Click to expand...
Even though it was explained multiple times just a few posts above lol.
 
F

Fancatstik

All-Conference
Dec 8, 2007
2,831
3,229
0
I get it that it's based on statistics but it's the statistics you decide to include. It doesn't appear that the SOS has much merit. Iowa St has only played one ranked team and they lost to them and that was #12 aTm.
 
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*Fox2Monk*

*Fox2Monk*

Heisman
Jun 10, 2009
48,229
88,611
113
Aike said:
People lose their minds over this stuff. We beat Miami by 22 but lost to UNCW. Which team are we?

I finally stopped posting last year because the trolls were over the top.

Guess what they were maddest about? They didn’t think I had Purdue and Bama high enough, and they thought I had UCONN too high. Huh.
Click to expand...
Keep posting, I find it interesting. Comparing the actual results to you model is cool.
 
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*Fox2Monk*

*Fox2Monk*

Heisman
Jun 10, 2009
48,229
88,611
113
UK90 said:
Like others, not sure how you rank Purdue so low with wins over Arizona, Marquette, Tennessee, Gonzaga, Alabama, Xavier and Iowa.

Nobody else has nearly as impressive a collection of wins so far.
Click to expand...
It’s not his personal rank, just how the model he makes presents teams so far.
 
*Fox2Monk*

*Fox2Monk*

Heisman
Jun 10, 2009
48,229
88,611
113
Aike said:
I wouldn’t call 8 low, but they tend to model worse with me than they do some other places due to defensive style.

Playing drop coverage they tend to be less disruptive than other top teams, and open themselves up to be upset by any hot shooting team.
Click to expand...
They beat Alabama but gave up 19 3’s. I can see how that would shake out in the model.
 
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RexBowie

RexBowie

Heisman
Apr 25, 2023
14,460
25,935
113
Your model is intended to predict the National Champion based on the entire work of play, correct? In other words, with more game played, the algorithm would be more accurate using historical data as training data?

If this is true, do you have the ability to compare with historical data on the same date? On Dec 17, 2022, I'd assume the projections would look different than the projections on March 1, 2023?
 
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U

UK90

Heisman
Dec 30, 2007
31,460
27,816
0
Fox2monk said:
It’s not his personal rank, just how the model he makes presents teams so far.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I get that. And it’s not something I care about personally. I’m just curious how an objective methodological model would put the team that seems to have accomplished more than anyone else so far (ie. Purdue) so low.

What objective factors are weighing against them in this model?
 
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DaDirtyLeb69

DaDirtyLeb69

Heisman
Jan 4, 2022
46,399
74,319
113
Aike said:
Cats rise a couple spots to number 9…

1. Zona
2. Iowa St
3. UCONN
4. Houston
5. BYU
6. FAU
7. Colorado St
8. Purdue
9. Kentucky Wildcats Basketball
10. Alabama
11. Virginia
12. Colorado
13. Marquette
14. Kansas
15. Tennessee
16. Auburn
Click to expand...
I think UConn should be number one by a good margin. They are clearly the best team right now, but I always like your posts about the models, they provide a good viewpoint.
 
*Fox2Monk*

*Fox2Monk*

Heisman
Jun 10, 2009
48,229
88,611
113
UK90 said:
Yeah, I get that. And it’s not something I care about personally. I’m just curious how an objective methodological model would put the team that seems to have accomplished more than anyone else so far (ie. Purdue) so low.

What objective factors are weighing against them in this model?
Click to expand...
I would think Purdue would be higher as well, I don’t know all the variables though.
 
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