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Latest College Baseball Projections

W

WrapItDog

Senior
Aug 23, 2012
4,338
793
113
That's from 5/3/17 prior to last weekends games. KY & AU would love to hang on to those projections.
 
T

Todd4State

Redshirt
Mar 3, 2008
17,411
1
0
We should get some new projections soon- I think D1Baseball.com and Baseball America usually do their projections on Tuesdays.
 
M

MSUDC11

Redshirt
Aug 23, 2012
7,316
0
0
I feel like we're somewhere between 10th and 12th in the national pecking order. Not deserving of a national seed yet but safely in as a host.

If we finish 6-1, I think we have a legit case for a national seed. We would win the West in that scenario and likely have at least a share of the overall conference title.

I personally think we'll split the next two series. We should host at 19-11 but we won't win the SEC (and possibly not the West) with that record.

Pairings are what they are, but D1 has had us matched up with Clemson for a Super the last few weeks. Shades of 2000 and 2007.

Auburn is really intriguing to me. They were on the verge of being a national seed last week but now they are all the way down to 37 in the RPI, which is 10th highest in the SEC (!). That's 3 seed territory.
 
T

thekimmer

All-Conference
Aug 30, 2012
8,937
3,144
113
Auburn picked a bad time and one of the worst opponents to have a bad weekend...

MSUDC11 said:
I feel like we're somewhere between 10th and 12th in the national pecking order. Not deserving of a national seed yet but safely in as a host.

If we finish 6-1, I think we have a legit case for a national seed. We would win the West in that scenario and likely have at least a share of the overall conference title.

I personally think we'll split the next two series. We should host at 19-11 but we won't win the SEC (and possibly not the West) with that record.

Pairings are what they are, but D1 has had us matched up with Clemson for a Super the last few weeks. Shades of 2000 and 2007.

Auburn is really intriguing to me. They were on the verge of being a national seed last week but now they are all the way down to 37 in the RPI, which is 10th highest in the SEC (!). That's 3 seed territory.
Click to expand...

I really think Aubie came into the bama series a little too full of themselves after knocking us off at DNF. They took bama for granted and it bit them right down to the bone. Let that be a warning to us this weekend in athens. Then again we never do anything the easy way which might help keep us a bit more grounded.
 
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8

8dog

All-American
Feb 23, 2008
15,298
7,724
113
Its is but i have never understood how you can run an rpi needs report with any accuracy.
 
T

tatedog

Redshirt
Mar 28, 2015
8,739
0
0
Auburn could be in some serious trouble. They will make the SEC tournament even with a disastrous last two weeks, and they are playing series against teams with good RPI's, so they can't fall too far. However, 2-4 or worse the last two weekends will put them squarely on the NCAA bubble, especially if they drop both series. Losing 2/3 at home to Ole Miss could be especially dangerous as it could put them behind Ole Miss in the RPI. Their OOC schedule ranked below 100 is something the committee could easily justify punishing.
 
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57stratdawg

57stratdawg

Heisman
Dec 1, 2004
148,782
24,668
113
MSUDC11 said:
I feel like we're somewhere between 10th and 12th in the national pecking order. Not deserving of a national seed yet but safely in as a host.
Click to expand...

Those are essentially my thoughts as well. But Aaron Fitt said yesterday if we won the conference we were a national seed. I'm not sure how it would play out if we split with UF.

I think UF is pretty much a lock. We probably need to finish 2 games ahead of UK to jump them in the national seed discussion, because we likely won't catch them in the RPI.
 
T

tatedog

Redshirt
Mar 28, 2015
8,739
0
0
57stratdawg said:
Those are essentially my thoughts as well. But Aaron Fitt said yesterday if we won the conference we were a national seed. I'm not sure how it would play out if we split with UF.

I think UF is pretty much a lock. We probably need to finish 2 games ahead of UK to jump them in the national seed discussion, because we likely won't catch them in the RPI.
Click to expand...

We need UK to have a bad weekend vs UT and a good weekend vs UF to muddy up those waters a bit. UF dropping a game or two to Alabama would be nice as well.
 
T

thekimmer

All-Conference
Aug 30, 2012
8,937
3,144
113
Not asking for too much are we....

tatedog said:
We need UK to have a bad weekend vs UT and a good weekend vs UF to muddy up those waters a bit. UF dropping a game or two to Alabama would be nice as well.
Click to expand...


The thing we gotta be hoping for is no sweeps by anybody in contention (other than us of course). Sweeps are what would push anybody over the top. That was our pathway to the title last year despite TAM not losing a series and actually sweeping us on SBW.

I would be happy with, in this order, bama taking at least one from UF, UT taking at least one from UK, and UK winning two of three from UF but not all three. But from our side, looking at scenarios I don't see any that would give us much of a chance to win the conference without winning both of the remaining two series.

I think its pretty likely that there will be co-champs in the SEC this year and maybe even in one or both divisions. Of course we said that last year and it worked out nicely for us at the end to win the conference outright.
 
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P

patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
61,321
33,035
113
It's an approximation based on current RPI of your current and remaining opponents. If, for example, Oregon was to go on the road and sweep Oregon St., we'd get an unexpected bump and it might be possible to finish in the top 8, or we may only need 4 wins instead of 5 to finish in the top 16. It does give you some idea of what you need to do to hit certain milestones, though, so I think it's pretty useful.
 
M

MSUDC11

Redshirt
Aug 23, 2012
7,316
0
0
Dream scenario for this weekend:

We sweep
Bama wins at least one
UT wins at least one
Vandy wins two against Arkansas
Auburn wins two against LSU but doesn't sweep

We'll still be in really good shape if we only win two at UGA if those other scenarios play out.
 
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