OT - Question for the weather geeks

[FQDawg]

How far out can you reasonably predict the weather for a location? I'm curious about New Orleans over Mardi Gras weekend (Feb. 24-26) but it's still three weeks out. When would be a better time to check?

 

[ShrubDog]

This time of year the weather is all over the place. A week before should give you an idea what to expect but its never set in stone.

 

[bulldognation]

I'd say the 15-day forecast is right on the cusp. At least that's my rule.

Unless it's a trip to Disney World...
Bulldognation + Disney World = rain

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

7 days out would be the best time to start looking.

 

[Xenomorph]

36 hrs ago the weather forecast for N. MS was rain basically all day into the evening. It hasn't rained a drop since 4am.

 

[KurtRambis4]

Wow, 15 days...

you've got a lot more confidence in the forecasts than I do. I usually never pay attention until a few days out.

 

[msudawg12]

This time of year the weather is all over the place. A week before should give you an idea what to expect but its never set in stone.

You can find websites that have 10 year or more averages for a city on a given date with highs, lows, precipitation % etc

That’s at least something I’ve looked at when planning an event but its still a crapshoot

 

[TheStateUofMS]

No more than 36-48 hours, unless there's a weather feature you're certain will be dominant, like a high pressure system (clear skies usually).

Precipitation amounts are even harder to predict.

I look at it like this, if there's a 30% of rain, that's still a pretty decent chance, so prepare to be in it.

I was a meteorology major at State for a semester, so I know my ****.**

 

[TheStateUofMS]

Good God man.

 

[ShrubDog]

You can find websites that have 10 year or more averages for a city on a given date with highs, lows, precipitation % etc

That’s at least something I’ve looked at when planning an event but its still a crapshoot

FaRmers AlmaNac

 

[Dogariffic]

Weather people have it made. Wrong a high % of the time but look at it this way:
If they perdict rain... even at a high %...and the sun shines everyone is happy and no one really complains. .... unless you are a farmer who needs some rain.
If they predict a possibility of rain... say 30%... and it does rain.....then they warned you and they are the good guys.
And finally if they predict rain and it does rain then they are experts....if it missed you well you were lucky..
Gotta get a job where I can be wrong 65% of the time and be a hero.

 

[aTotal360]

Nostradamos ***

 

[aTotal360]

They've learned this trick from sports analysts.

 

[FQDawg]

Gotta get a job where I can be wrong 65% of the time and be a hero.

Sounds like baseball. Be bad at your job 60% of the time and you’ll likely make the Hall of Fame.