Lunardi Bracketology ..

[BiscuitEater]

Has SEC with 4 teams .. UK, UF, USCe & Ark

MSU is currently alone in the 6th spot behind UK, UF, USCe, Bama & GA .. and ahead of Ark, OM and UT.

What are our chances of passing Georgia (.5 games ahead of MSU) and Bama (1.0 game ahead) and getting into 4th place in SEC?

 

[Uncle Ruckus]

I'd say the chances are favorable if we keep playing like we have. I just don't think our RPI will have us in, even if we finish as high as 3rd. We are going to have to only lose 2-3 more games to get considered.

 

[engie]

I think we have a pretty good chance to finish 4th in the SEC. But I don't think it will be enough to get in the tournament. We are further along more quickly than Howland expected us to be -- otherwise he never schedules in the noncon how he did.

Let's just beat Tennessee on Saturday and go from there.

 

[missouridawg]

I think we have a pretty good chance to finish 4th in the SEC. But I don't think it will be enough to get in the tournament. We are further along more quickly than Howland expected us to be -- otherwise he never schedules in the noncon how he did.

Let's just beat Tennessee on Saturday and go from there.

Its a really, really tall task, but going 4-1 against UT/USCe/UF (with the loss being on the road) and winning out might get us there, RPI wise. Obviously, Boise State, UCF, ETSU, and Lehigh need to keep winning also.

 

[engie]

If we do all that, we likely finish 2nd or 3rd in the SEC -- and it's a pretty good chance we get in regardless of where RPI finishes.

I think our most likely path is in winning the tournament, which I think we can do. Especially if we get a top 4-seed double bye and only need 3 wins to bring it home.

 

[missouridawg]

If we do all that, we likely finish 2nd or 3rd in the SEC -- and it's a pretty good chance we get in regardless of where RPI finishes.

I think our most likely path is in winning the tournament, which I think we can do. Especially if we get a top 4-seed double bye and only need 3 wins to bring it home.

Agree that our most likely path is the auto-bid. It's incredibly hard not to be downright giddy about what we've seen these last two weeks.

 

[msugolf]

If we can get our RPI into the 60s then we'll have a good shot at one of the play in games. If we can get to 13-5, 12-6 in conference play then maybe win a game in SEC tourney that'll probably get us there, assuming we take care of florida and/or USCe at home. Vandy made it in last year with a 64 rpi and 11-8 conference record (lost 1st game in SEC tourney) and OM made it in 2015 with 61 rpi and 11-8 SEC record (also lost 1st game in conf tourney).

 

[57stratdawg]

Agree. Top 4 regular season finish is the goal IMO.

We'll get our chances in February. We play USC (twice), UF and UGA.

 

[615dawg]

I think its going to the 12-6 in the SEC to get us int he 50s RPI. That's a 9-4 finish.

Must Wins - 5 Home Games
vs. Missouri (277 RPI)
vs. Tennessee (68 RPI)
vs. Ole Miss (44 RPI)
vs. LSU (131 RPI)
Either vs. South Carolina (29 RPI) or vs. Florida (4 RPI)

Delta= +15

Need to go 4-2 on the road
at Tennessee (68 RPI)
at Alabama (73 RPI)
at Ole Miss (44 RPI)
at Auburn (79 RPI)
at Vanderbilt (78 RPI)
at Georgia (43 RPI)

Delta = +29 (if 4 wins vs. bottom 4 teams) - +34 (if 4 wins vs. top 4 teams)

Probably Wont Win, but losses won't hurt a bit.
at South Carolina (29 RPI)
vs. South Carolina (29 RPI) or vs. Florida (4 RPI)

Delta = -2

This would put us at 21-9, 12-6 SEC, and in the 48-53 range of the RPI.

Current RPI = 95
Delta = +42 - +47

Our biggest non-conference variance is going to be Oregon State. They are projected to go 0-18 in the Pac 12. Every Pac 12 win they get could boost us 0.3 - 0.5 spots. If they sneak up and go 4-14, it could be worth 2 spots. Boise, Lehigh, ETSU and UCF just don't have the opportunity left on their schedule to boost us. For example, ETSU could win out and the Delta is less than one Pac 12 win for Oregon State.

 

[olblue.sixpack]

Has SEC with 4 teams .. UK, UF, USCe & Ark

MSU is currently alone in the 6th spot behind UK, UF, USCe, Bama & GA .. and ahead of Ark, OM and UT.

What are our chances of passing Georgia (.5 games ahead of MSU) and Bama (1.0 game ahead) and getting into 4th place in SEC?

I think the SEC is a two team league. It's gone from bad to worse.

 

[msugolf]

I think the SEC is a two team league. It's gone from bad to worse.

Nope. Try again....or don't actually.

 

[DAWG61]

I think its going to the 12-6 in the SEC to get us int he 50s RPI. That's a 9-4 finish.

Must Wins - 5 Home Games
vs. Missouri (277 RPI)
vs. Tennessee (68 RPI)
vs. Ole Miss (44 RPI)
vs. LSU (131 RPI)
Either vs. South Carolina (29 RPI) or vs. Florida (4 RPI)

Delta= +15

Need to go 4-2 on the road
at Tennessee (68 RPI)
at Alabama (73 RPI)
at Ole Miss (44 RPI)
at Auburn (79 RPI)
at Vanderbilt (78 RPI)
at Georgia (43 RPI)

Delta = +29 (if 4 wins vs. bottom 4 teams) - +34 (if 4 wins vs. top 4 teams)

Probably Wont Win, but losses won't hurt a bit.
at South Carolina (29 RPI)
vs. South Carolina (29 RPI) or vs. Florida (4 RPI)

Delta = -2

This would put us at 21-9, 12-6 SEC, and in the 48-53 range of the RPI.

Current RPI = 95
Delta = +42 - +47

Our biggest non-conference variance is going to be Oregon State. They are projected to go 0-18 in the Pac 12. Every Pac 12 win they get could boost us 0.3 - 0.5 spots. If they sneak up and go 4-14, it could be worth 2 spots. Boise, Lehigh, ETSU and UCF just don't have the opportunity left on their schedule to boost us. For example, ETSU could win out and the Delta is less than one Pac 12 win for Oregon State.

Go Beavers!! I appreciate all this work you did but I don't think an RPI of 48-53 still gets us in with our atrocious OOC SOS.

 

[missouridawg]

I think its going to the 12-6 in the SEC to get us int he 50s RPI. That's a 9-4 finish.

Must Wins - 5 Home Games
vs. Missouri (277 RPI)
vs. Tennessee (68 RPI)
vs. Ole Miss (44 RPI)
vs. LSU (131 RPI)
Either vs. South Carolina (29 RPI) or vs. Florida (4 RPI)

Delta= +15

Need to go 4-2 on the road
at Tennessee (68 RPI)
at Alabama (73 RPI)
at Ole Miss (44 RPI)
at Auburn (79 RPI)
at Vanderbilt (78 RPI)
at Georgia (43 RPI)

Delta = +29 (if 4 wins vs. bottom 4 teams) - +34 (if 4 wins vs. top 4 teams)

Probably Wont Win, but losses won't hurt a bit.
at South Carolina (29 RPI)
vs. South Carolina (29 RPI) or vs. Florida (4 RPI)

Delta = -2

This would put us at 21-9, 12-6 SEC, and in the 48-53 range of the RPI.

Current RPI = 95
Delta = +42 - +47

Our biggest non-conference variance is going to be Oregon State. They are projected to go 0-18 in the Pac 12. Every Pac 12 win they get could boost us 0.3 - 0.5 spots. If they sneak up and go 4-14, it could be worth 2 spots. Boise, Lehigh, ETSU and UCF just don't have the opportunity left on their schedule to boost us. For example, ETSU could win out and the Delta is less than one Pac 12 win for Oregon State.

Thanks for the breakdown. I was thinking that 14-4 was going to be our minimum to get above 60 RPI, it I was wrong. Gladly.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

Let's just beat Tennessee on Saturday and go from there.

Yeah I'm kinda worried about how we react after the Kentucky game.

 

[615dawg]

Go Beavers!! I appreciate all this work you did but I don't think an RPI of 48-53 still gets us in with our atrocious OOC SOS.

Neither do I, but I'm realistic. This is our best realistic shot to be in the conversation. There are some other variables - it would help if Arkansas and Georgia stayed in the top 50, but it would also hurt because if we're up against them they have a much better non-conference resume.

Think about this. If we won out, our RPI would only be in the mid 30's at the end of the regular season. 26-4 would only be mid 30s. Way too many 300+ teams on our non-conference schedule, and its possible that we end the season with only 3 games against the top 50. Extremely probable that its no more than five.

 

[BulldogBlitz]

I think the SEC is a two team league. It's gone from bad to worse.

I'll play along...is OM one of those two?**

 

[FlotownDawg]

SEC is actually improved this year

Looks like there are three locks to the NCAA Tournament (UK, Fla, USCe) and Arkansas is looking pretty good unless they collapse. Georgia is also right there and will be a bubble team. Then you've got at least two or three more teams that look like they could make the NIT (MSU, Bama, Ole Miss) Seeing how the SEC only got two teams into the real NCAA Tournament last year (Vandy got blown out in the play-in round) five would be great for the league.

 

[BiscuitEater]

Looks like there are three locks to the NCAA Tournament (UK, Fla, USCe) and Arkansas is looking pretty good unless they collapse.

The point of the OP was that MSU is AHEAD of Arkansas in SEC standing, beat them AT Arkansas and has a good chance of finishing 4th in the SEC, ahead of Arkansas. Ark lost to KY by 26.

There are a lot of SEC games left; teams will get hot and cold; injuries happen. It just feels really good to be talking about post season & basketball in the same post!

 

[DAWG61]

Neither do I, but I'm realistic. This is our best realistic shot to be in the conversation. There are some other variables - it would help if Arkansas and Georgia stayed in the top 50, but it would also hurt because if we're up against them they have a much better non-conference resume.

Think about this. If we won out, our RPI would only be in the mid 30's at the end of the regular season. 26-4 would only be mid 30s. Way too many 300+ teams on our non-conference schedule, and its possible that we end the season with only 3 games against the top 50. Extremely probable that its no more than five.

If we go 25-5 reg season we get in no doubt. We ain't winning out though and I know you didn't say we will. That would be sweet as hell to win out though. We would be giddy as **** all offseason with Ado, TeaSpoon, Feazell and Brooks getting added to this team.

 

[stateu1]

Those 4 road wins are gonna be tough.

Thanks for the breakdown. I was thinking that 14-4 was going to be our minimum to get above 60 RPI, it I was wrong. Gladly.

 

[Drebin]

The league is more than two teams, but it's not as good as it should be.

Kentucky, South Carolina, and Florida are locks. I guess you forgot about one of them. I think one or two more probably get in too.