Short version: I don't think they are very good. You can stop reading now unless you want to be depressed at Christmas time.
In 2005 the NCAA bought the rights to the NIT and starting in 2006 changed the selection process. Whereas prior to then, major conference teams who were more likely to sell tickets and have TV ratings were given preference, now regular season conference champions who don't make it into the NCAA tournament are guaranteed a spot. This is mostly the one bid league type teams. The remainder is at large as selected by a committee.
Over the past five years, there have been an average of 12 auto bid teams, leaving an average of 20 at-large teams. The range on the at-large teams in that time has been as few as 17 and as many as 22. Basically you need to be one of the "next 20 out" of the NCAA tournament to be an NIT team.
The 20ish at large teams can be split into two categories - those from major conference teams, and those who are not. Over the last five years, the major conferences have averaged 11 of those bids, the non major conferences have averaged 9. In total, major conference teams have claimed 55 of the 99 available at-large spots in the NIT. So if the math holds, we need to be one of the next 10-12 most highly regarded major conference teams to be in the NIT mix. However, the last two years, it's been a little lower, with major conference teams only taking 17 of 27 spots, meaning we would need to be in the top 8-10 most regarded teams.
Two factors to consider are wins and RPI. Over the last five years, the average number of wins for an at-large team is 20.3. If you are in a power conference, you get a little bit of a break. The power conference average is 19.4, but only 16 of the 53 power conference bids had fewer than 19 wins. The low mark for that was 16 (St. John's, 2013). The overall average RPI for the at-large teams has been 70.3. Again, the power conference teams get a small measure of relief. Their average has been 74.8. Iowa in 2012 was the worst RPI to receive a bid in that time (131st).
Some notable outliers in that time are that 2012 Iowa team, the 2015 Arizona State and Vandy teams (102 and 113 respectively), and the trio of Minnesota (2011), Providence (2012) and West Virginia (2013), each of whom made it in with identical slates of 17 wins and a 90 RPI. FYI the best profile teams to make it in during that span were Missouri (44 RPI and 22 wins) and Minnesota (48th and 20) in 2014,
So that brings us to the Bulldogs. We currently sit at 7-3 with an RPI of 186 but our SOS is horrific. We've played the teams ranked 332, 343 and 344 in the RPI. Norfolk State at 291 is our third best win, behind Boise St and Georgia State. UCF and ETSU aren't killer losses, yet. Of course we will see the RPI rise during conference play but it's doubtful we will get much help from Southern, Oregon State, and UTEP. Remember that 50% of the RPI is your opponent's winning percentage, with 25% each devoted to your own winning percentage, and your opponents' opponents' winning percentage. Also remember that home games count as 0.6 if you win, and 1.4 if you lose, with the opposite being true on the road. Obviously step 1 is to win, which is enough of a challenge in and of itself.
There are 75 power conference teams from the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, SEC and Pac 12. Lunardi currently has 38 of them getting in the NCAAs. If you figure that we need to be within the next 10-12 to be in the mix for an NIT bid, then that puts us roughly needing to be in the top 50 of the major conference teams. Of those 75 teams, we are currently 68th in RPI. The 50th ranked RPI team in the power leagues is Ohio State. Their RPI is 79 right in line with an NIT profile. That's a huge gap to try and make up. They are also 8-3 against a schedule eons better than ours and in a league tougher than ours.
If you also figure we need 19 wins at minimum (average is a shade over 19), then we don't have any room for error. Two more non conference wins and a 9-9 SEC record would only get us to 18. That probably puts us in the 8/9 game in the SECT, maybe 7/10. I suspect we'd be better off heading to Nashville with 19 wins, meaning we need to go 10-8 in the conference. Can we get to 10?
2 each with Ole Miss, Bama, LSU and Tennessee Need 6-2 Are we good enough to sweep at least two teams?
1 each with Missouri, @ Vandy, @ Auburn, @ UGA, & TAMU Need 3-2 Are we good enough to win a road game against a decent team and/or in a hostile arena like Vandy?
Unlikely @ Arkansas or @ South Carolina or against Florida or South Carolina at home; No shot at all against Kentucky Need 1-4 Who can we beat? If none, then add one to the groups above.
Bottom line is I just don't see this team as being good enough to win 9 or 10 games in even a weak version of the SEC. We're more likely to win 6-8 games in my opinion and finish right at .500 overall.
Go prove me wrong Ben Howland, please.
In 2005 the NCAA bought the rights to the NIT and starting in 2006 changed the selection process. Whereas prior to then, major conference teams who were more likely to sell tickets and have TV ratings were given preference, now regular season conference champions who don't make it into the NCAA tournament are guaranteed a spot. This is mostly the one bid league type teams. The remainder is at large as selected by a committee.
Over the past five years, there have been an average of 12 auto bid teams, leaving an average of 20 at-large teams. The range on the at-large teams in that time has been as few as 17 and as many as 22. Basically you need to be one of the "next 20 out" of the NCAA tournament to be an NIT team.
The 20ish at large teams can be split into two categories - those from major conference teams, and those who are not. Over the last five years, the major conferences have averaged 11 of those bids, the non major conferences have averaged 9. In total, major conference teams have claimed 55 of the 99 available at-large spots in the NIT. So if the math holds, we need to be one of the next 10-12 most highly regarded major conference teams to be in the NIT mix. However, the last two years, it's been a little lower, with major conference teams only taking 17 of 27 spots, meaning we would need to be in the top 8-10 most regarded teams.
Two factors to consider are wins and RPI. Over the last five years, the average number of wins for an at-large team is 20.3. If you are in a power conference, you get a little bit of a break. The power conference average is 19.4, but only 16 of the 53 power conference bids had fewer than 19 wins. The low mark for that was 16 (St. John's, 2013). The overall average RPI for the at-large teams has been 70.3. Again, the power conference teams get a small measure of relief. Their average has been 74.8. Iowa in 2012 was the worst RPI to receive a bid in that time (131st).
Some notable outliers in that time are that 2012 Iowa team, the 2015 Arizona State and Vandy teams (102 and 113 respectively), and the trio of Minnesota (2011), Providence (2012) and West Virginia (2013), each of whom made it in with identical slates of 17 wins and a 90 RPI. FYI the best profile teams to make it in during that span were Missouri (44 RPI and 22 wins) and Minnesota (48th and 20) in 2014,
So that brings us to the Bulldogs. We currently sit at 7-3 with an RPI of 186 but our SOS is horrific. We've played the teams ranked 332, 343 and 344 in the RPI. Norfolk State at 291 is our third best win, behind Boise St and Georgia State. UCF and ETSU aren't killer losses, yet. Of course we will see the RPI rise during conference play but it's doubtful we will get much help from Southern, Oregon State, and UTEP. Remember that 50% of the RPI is your opponent's winning percentage, with 25% each devoted to your own winning percentage, and your opponents' opponents' winning percentage. Also remember that home games count as 0.6 if you win, and 1.4 if you lose, with the opposite being true on the road. Obviously step 1 is to win, which is enough of a challenge in and of itself.
There are 75 power conference teams from the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, SEC and Pac 12. Lunardi currently has 38 of them getting in the NCAAs. If you figure that we need to be within the next 10-12 to be in the mix for an NIT bid, then that puts us roughly needing to be in the top 50 of the major conference teams. Of those 75 teams, we are currently 68th in RPI. The 50th ranked RPI team in the power leagues is Ohio State. Their RPI is 79 right in line with an NIT profile. That's a huge gap to try and make up. They are also 8-3 against a schedule eons better than ours and in a league tougher than ours.
If you also figure we need 19 wins at minimum (average is a shade over 19), then we don't have any room for error. Two more non conference wins and a 9-9 SEC record would only get us to 18. That probably puts us in the 8/9 game in the SECT, maybe 7/10. I suspect we'd be better off heading to Nashville with 19 wins, meaning we need to go 10-8 in the conference. Can we get to 10?
2 each with Ole Miss, Bama, LSU and Tennessee Need 6-2 Are we good enough to sweep at least two teams?
1 each with Missouri, @ Vandy, @ Auburn, @ UGA, & TAMU Need 3-2 Are we good enough to win a road game against a decent team and/or in a hostile arena like Vandy?
Unlikely @ Arkansas or @ South Carolina or against Florida or South Carolina at home; No shot at all against Kentucky Need 1-4 Who can we beat? If none, then add one to the groups above.
Bottom line is I just don't see this team as being good enough to win 9 or 10 games in even a weak version of the SEC. We're more likely to win 6-8 games in my opinion and finish right at .500 overall.
Go prove me wrong Ben Howland, please.
