Possible reality check coming on Saturday

DawgatAuburn

All-Conference
Apr 25, 2006
11,192
2,326
113
Never too early to start talking about our next game, right? Let's recap Auburn's path to a 3-2 record.

Auburn started the year losing to Clemson. In a game many were predicting a blowout, Auburn had a couple of heaves at what would have been game winning hail marys. The two narratives from that game were Auburn’s offense sucks (and they didn’t help it by playing three QBs), and Clemson looked bad. I think we’ve seen in the weeks since that perhaps Auburn’s defense had something to do with Clemson looking bad. I also think Clemson’s defense is pretty good, and that had something to do with Auburn’s struggles.

Auburn followed that up by blowing out Arkansas State. Arkansas State has been respectable the last few years, but this year so far they are horrible. Today they lost to Central Arkansas, a team who had never beaten an FCS team before. But Auburn did what you are supposed to do bad teams. They throttled them.

Following that was the Texas A&M game. What we now know is that A&M appears to be the somewhere between the second and fourth best team in the conference (with UT and Ole Miss). It’s probably not a surprise that they came into Auburn and won. Auburn’s offense again was the target of criticism, and maybe rightly so. But A&M has to get some credit too. They’ve been good defensively.

Then LSU rolled into town fresh off their dominating (for 57 minutes) win over the Dogs. Auburn had trouble getting in the end zone again. Six field goals is never the goal, but it does say something that Auburn was at least getting into scoring position consistently throughout the game, something we failed to do. And inside the 35, Carlson is basically automatic.

Finally, today it was ULM. Jump up about three paragraphs and you’ll see the same reasoning. ULM is not good, and Auburn ran all over them.

So a couple of questions come to mind. Is our defense closer to that of Clemson, A&M and LSU, or to that of Arkansas State and ULM? The answer may be that it’s a far sight from either set off those. But those first three held Auburn to 13, 16 and 18. I don’t think we are salty enough to do that.

The other question is where are our points going to come from? Clemson and A&M are good offenses. Auburn held Clemson to their lowest output of the year. Held A&M to their second lowest. We haven’t shown the ability to do anything consistently well, but we’re going to have to figure it in a hurry on Saturday morning.

I hope to be eating some crow on Saturday afternoon, but I think we get it handed to us on Saturday morning. Something like 30-17.
 

msstate7

Redshirt
Nov 27, 2008
10,388
10
38
May mean something... may mean nothing, but this will be auburn's first road trip of the year.

Also Clemson barely beat Troy at home the following week before finally kicking it in gear vs South Carolina state the next week.
 

Dawg4ever49

Redshirt
Aug 27, 2012
189
0
0
South Carolina played well against Texas A&M, South Alabama beat SDSU who was ranked. LSU will make some noise from here on out. LSU with one more second would have beaten Auburn. Gus might have been fired instead of Les.
Crazy season so far.
Very impressed with Clemson and Louisville either could be in play offs. Either one of these teams would have beaten anyone including Alabama tonight.
 
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Dawg1976

All-Conference
Aug 22, 2012
8,487
3,055
113
I see a sound beating coming up. Hope we're all fired up and breaks go our way. But this has the potential of a 17+ point loss.
 

was21

Senior
May 29, 2007
10,013
637
113
Vegas line should be around -7 but that's just for shats and giggles
 

msstate7

Redshirt
Nov 27, 2008
10,388
10
38
It's been 2011 since auburn won an opening sec road game...

'12 -- Lost at state 28-10
'13 -- Lost at lsu 35-21 (played for a natty this year)
'14 -- Lost at state 38-23
'15 -- Lost at lsu 45-21

Avg loss by 17.8 points... hopefully this trend continues
 

ronpolk

All-American
May 6, 2009
9,455
5,481
113
I don't expect us to win. But I have not seen anything out of Auburn's offense that suggest they can blow anyone decent out. I think we lose a one possession game.
 

Curby

All-Conference
Aug 23, 2012
1,652
1,564
113
PACK DWS. BE LOUD. PROVIDE HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE

And if Dan and the team stink up the field with uninspired play and bonehead calls....

Deer hunt the rest of the year.

But I think we owe it to them for at least 1 more game before we pack it in.
 
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mount lefroy

Redshirt
Feb 10, 2013
2,501
0
36
We'll beat Auburn.

Which begs a ? IF we beat auburn and play like the team that we all thought they should be at the beginning of the season, how will we all account for that?

Fact is, teams gel at weird times and fall apart that way too.

I'd account for it this way: Dan got out of his staff's way and let them choose personnel. One of the players took on the role of leader in such a way as to inspire other players to step up.
 
Feb 4, 2015
1,060
66
48
We can ill afford to have crappy play calling if we have any shot of winning such as Holloway up the middle or lack of effort from the team. I for one believe Mullen is going to leave after this season is done. The effort is just gone and it is sad.
 

ronpolk

All-American
May 6, 2009
9,455
5,481
113
Which begs a ? IF we beat auburn and play like the team that we all thought they should be at the beginning of the season, how will we all account for that?

Fact is, teams gel at weird times and fall apart that way too.

I'd account for it this way: Dan got out of his staff's way and let them choose personnel. One of the players took on the role of leader in such a way as to inspire other players to step up.

So if we end up having a good season then Mullen just got out of the way and that's the reason. But if we continue the bad season, it's all Mullen's fault. Is that right?
 

HD6

Sophomore
Apr 8, 2003
10,019
108
63
Auburn has 3 touchdowns in 3 games against power 5 teams, and you think they are going to put 30 on the board here?

Auburn reminds me of MSU 2013, blew out Troy and Alcorn in the first 5 games, 0-3 against Power 5 teams in that same span. Only LSU's incompetence prevented the same fate for Auburn.

We may or may not win, but you are giving Auburn way too much credit here.
 

Hoover Dawg

Redshirt
May 16, 2016
1,584
0
0
I think they are going to beat us down too. But I have no scientific reasoning behind it. Just file it under the 'we should win but we won't' folder.

MSU fans are very familiar with this folder.
 

DawgatAuburn

All-Conference
Apr 25, 2006
11,192
2,326
113
If that's the line of reasoning you want to take, UMass had two touchdowns in two power five games and put five TDs on the board against us. So yeah, I think it's totally possible that an SEC offense could put 30 on the board.
 

HD6

Sophomore
Apr 8, 2003
10,019
108
63
I have 3 bad Auburn offensive games to 1 bad MSU defensive game. Statisically, it's more likely that UMass is the outlier than the 3 games Auburn has played.
 

DawgatAuburn

All-Conference
Apr 25, 2006
11,192
2,326
113
One bad game? Giving up 379 yards and three second half TDs to South Alabama wasn't a bad defensive game? Giving up nearly 400 yards to an LSU team you just called incompetent wasn't a bad game?

You may turn out to be right, who knows, but at this point the eye test tells me that Auburn, in spite of their struggles, is a better team than we are. But better teams don't always win, unless Dan Mullen is coaching.**
 

HD6

Sophomore
Apr 8, 2003
10,019
108
63
Are we not talking about scoring defense? Because that's what I thought we were talking about.
 

Bulldogg31

Redshirt
Dec 9, 2013
8,263
0
0
Which begs a ? IF we beat auburn and play like the team that we all thought they should be at the beginning of the season, how will we all account for that?

Fact is, teams gel at weird times and fall apart that way too.

I'd account for it this way: Dan got out of his staff's way and let them choose personnel. One of the players took on the role of leader in such a way as to inspire other players to step up.

Inexperienced team getting better as the season goes on. Isn't that part of good coaching? We should hope to see improvement each game.
 
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