Super Regional Odds Using Massey Power Ratings

[John Lorry]

Full disclosure, I lifted this from /r/collegebaseball, thought it was interesting:

Summary

Gainesville	Advance to CWS	Sweep	Win in 3
Florida Gators	68%	38%	29%
Florida St	32%	15%	18%

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Louisville	Advance to CWS	Sweep	Win in 3
Louisville	87%	61%	27%
Santa Barbara	13%	5%	8%

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Baton Rouge	Advance to CWS	Sweep	Win in 3
LSU	61%	33%	28%
Coastal Carolina	39%	18%	21%

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Columbia	Advance to CWS	Sweep	Win in 3
South Carolina	52%	26%	26%
Oklahoma St	48%	24%	24%

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Lubbock	Advance to CWS	Sweep	Win in 3
Texas Tech	69%	40%	29%
East Carolina	31%	14%	17%

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Starkville	Advance to CWS	Sweep	Win in 3
Mississippi State	69%	40%	29%
Arizona	31%	14%	17%

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College Station	Advance to CWS	Sweep	Win in 3
Texas A&M	60%	32%	28%
TCU	40%	19%	21%

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Coral Gables	Advance to CWS	Sweep	Win in 3
Miami	78%	48%	29%
Boston College	22%	9%	13%

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Notes: As I tried to do with the first round[4] , I used Massey ratings because they rank offense and defense separately, adjust for schedule strength and other factors, and are overall better than something like RPI.
Expected runs calculations factor in the host's home field advantage. Runs standard deviation was estimated using results from 150 most recent regular season D1 games.
Feedback very welcome.

Link

 

[GloryDawg]

So we have 60% chance of playing Sunday.

 

[johnson86-1]

So we have 60% chance of playing Sunday.

??? I count a 46% chance.

 

[maroonmania]

Apparently not much of a point in UCSB making the trip to Louisville.***

 

[TheStateUofMS]

That is ridiculous. I will be rooting for SC to win bc I know we are better, but I'd prefer not to see LSU, A&M or UF in Omaha should we advance.

There's a good shot at 5 of 8 CWS teams being from the SEC. Wow.

 

[GloryDawg]

??? I count a 46% chance.

I'm not saying your wrong because I am no mathagician but it said we had a 40% chance of sweeping. In order to sweep that means we would not play on Sunday. So I took that to mean there is a 60% chance of playing Sunday.

 

[dickiedawg]

You also have to subtract the odds of Arizona sweeping, which according to the chart is 14%.

 

[notoriousD_O_G]

Arizona has a 14% chance to sweep so you have to subtract that

 

[UpTheMiddlex3Punt]

I'm not saying your wrong because I am no mathagician but it said we had a 40% chance of sweeping. In order to sweep that means we would not play on Sunday. So I took that to mean there is a 60% chance of playing Sunday.

Well, I suppose we could scrimmage if Arizona sweeps us.

 

[rem101]

You're all wrong. I got 19.83%.

 

[GloryDawg]

You're all wrong. I got 19.83%.

See this why I don'g gamble. To much science involved.

 

[thekimmer]

Trying to crunch these numbers is really a waste of time since we actually have to play the games. All that can really be said about them is we are predicted to be the most likely team to advance and if we do its slightly more likely to be in two games vs three. AZ is much less likely to advance but if they do it is more likely to be in three games vs two.