SEMO "Ace"

[John Lorry]

I thought it might be a welcome distraction from Beavergate to inject a little baseball discussion. I keep hearing about how SEMO's Joey Lucchesi is the love child of Nolan Ryan/Gregor Clegane/Bill Brasky, with his 10-4 record and ERA of 1.87. I acknowledge those are good numbers and the chatter that he's a potential first rounder, but when I took a look at the teams he pitched against, well, I was underwhelmed:

Date		Opponent		ip	h	r	er	bb	so	2b	3b	hr	wp	bk	hbp	ibb	np	score	w	l	sv	g-era	s-era
2/19/2016	at	Lamar University	L	6.0	4	2	2	3	9	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	101	1-2	0	1	0	3.00	3.00
2/26/2016	at	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	W	7.0	0	0	0	0	11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	85	10-0	1	0	0	0.00	1.38
3/4/2016		Central Arkansas	W	7.0	5	0	0	5	9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	119	6-0	1	0	0	0.00	0.90
3/11/2016	at	Eastern Kentucky	W	9.0	8	1	1	2	13	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	136	2-1	1	0	0	1.00	0.93
3/18/2016		Morehead State	W	8.0	3	1	1	3	10	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	132	5-1	1	0	0	1.13	0.97
3/24/2016	at	UT Martin	W	5.2	7	3	3	4	8	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	116	19-6	1	0	0	4.76	1.48
4/1/2016		SIUE	W	6.0	5	0	0	2	5	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	99	9-5	1	0	0	0.00	1.29
4/8/2016	at	Austin Peay	L	6.0	8	6	2	0	6	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	92	1-6	0	1	0	3.00	1.48
4/15/2016		Eastern Illinois	W	7.0	5	1	0	1	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	111	15-1	1	0	0	0.00	1.31
4/22/2016	at	Jacksonville State	L	5.0	5	4	4	5	9	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	89	2-6	0	1	0	7.20	1.75
4/28/2016		Murray State	W	8.0	6	1	1	2	17	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	126	10-3	1	0	0	1.13	1.69
5/6/2016	at	Tennessee Tech	L	6.0	9	6	4	3	10	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	118	2-7	0	1	0	6.00	2.01
5/13/2016		Stephen F Austin	L	7.0	7	2	2	2	8	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	108	2-3	0	0	0	2.57	2.05
5/19/2016		Belmont	W	6.0	6	2	2	2	13	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	118	9-2	1	0	0	3.00	2.11
5/27/2016	vs	Morehead State	W	9.0	7	0	0	3	6	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	119	3-0	1	0	0	0.00	1.93
5/29/2016	vs	Jacksonville State	W	3.0	1	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	35	14-8	0	0	1	0.00	1.87
		Total		105.2	86	29	22	37	145	10	3	3	5	2	2	0	1704	110-51	10	4	1		1.87

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Again, not taking anything away from the guy--I'm sure he'll be a legitimate challenge. But at the same time, it's not like this guy was lighting up marquee programs. We've faced worst and won convincingly. Am I missing something?

 

[MaroonNation]

How does he compare to the Mizzou pitcher we faced. He was good too. Their best player hands down. We swept Mizzou.

 

[rugbdawg]

They are a 4 seed with a legit ace. We have looked BAD at the plate our last 6 games going back to Arkansas. Hump and Lowe are in a slump. Of course there is cause for concern.

 

[121Josey]

You see those last two dates? If he can come back on 5-days in June and shutdown State's line-up, a tip of the cap to him. No way I would throw him on Friday.

 

[karlchilders.sixpack]

12 + Strike outs

for each 9 innings pitched.

Have I got that right?

 

[Junction John]

****, this has RAT written all over it.

Rugb needs to get to work.

 

[11thEagleFan]

The committee certainly didn't do State any favors with their regional draw, but I wouldn't be overly worried. I've watched A LOT of college baseball this year and I honestly think Mississippi State is one of the best 2-3 teams in the country. If State gets past SEMO's ace (they should), it'll be a cakewalk. If they somehow drop that game, I'd be scared. La Tech is more of a 2 seed than a 3. They won 40 games in C-USA this year, and beat up on Rice. I think they beat them 3 out of 5 overall, and they took a game from USM in Hattiesburg. Cal State Fullerton is always scary, but I honestly thought they should've been a 3 seed. State is obviously the superior team here though, and they'll have a hell of a home field advantage.

 

[bigiron.sixpack]

Look up. He's on it.

 

[engie]

Scouts aren't looking at the competition on pitchers like him. It's all measureables. Especially now that they are into spin rate metrics and all of that stuff to go along with velocity. He's graded out extremely high for a couple of clubs.

 

[CochiseCowbell]

They are a 4 seed with a legit ace. We have looked BAD at the plate our last 6 games going back to Arkansas. Hump and Lowe are in a slump. Of course there is cause for concern.

You beautiful bastard. Don't stop believing, now!

 

[coach66]

Lefty with a good breaking ball, we are

Screwed.

 

[mstateglfr]

****, this has RAT written all over it.

'RAT'

 

[KurtRambis4]

Well he was just

named Louisville Slugger First-Team AA, and leads the nation in strikeouts, so I'd say he's pretty good...

 

[UpTheMiddlex3Punt]

Thank you. RAT is the SS with the .200 average hitting for the cycle. Or the middle reliever with 6.0 IP and a 7.0 ERA for the year shutting you out.

 

[maroonmania]

named Louisville Slugger First-Team AA, and leads the nation in strikeouts, so I'd say he's pretty good...

No doubt he is quite good. Doesn't really look like he's pitched any against high level competition but if he is that high with Major League scouts I'm sure he is really good. Surprised that apparently he didn't pitch any in the 2 games they played against OM.

 

[John Lorry]

I agree Kurt.

named Louisville Slugger First-Team AA, and leads the nation in strikeouts, so I'd say he's pretty good...

Again, not saying he's not talented-he's had a great season.

I guess my point is, perhaps theres something to the fact that essentially all of the teams he's faced are abysmal (at least as far as RPI goes):

Lamar University - 75
Arkansas Pine Bluff - 271
Central Arkansas - 110
Eastern Kentucky - 214
Morehead State - 117
UT Martin - 266
SIUE - 281
Austin Peay - 101
Eastern Illinois - 272
Jacksonville State - 89
Murray State - 195
Tennessee Tech - 193
Stephen F Austin - 104
Belmont - 191

Average RPI - 177

That's all I'm saying. Unlike football or even basketball, there can be legit players at lesser known schools. But shirley the caliber of competition has to count for something.

 

[keffer21]

"Ace"

His record in true road games is 3-4 with a 3.22 ERA. He obviously pitched really well in their neutral site conference tournament. Let's hope the fans and atmosphere get to him. He certainly hasn't pitched in this sort of environment this year.

 

[Mjoelner]

Again, not saying he's not talented-he's had a great season.

I guess my point is, perhaps theres something to the fact that essentially all of the teams he's faced are abysmal (at least as far as RPI goes):

Lamar University - 75
Arkansas Pine Bluff - 271
Central Arkansas - 110
Eastern Kentucky - 214
Morehead State - 117
UT Martin - 266
SIUE - 281
Austin Peay - 101
Eastern Illinois - 272
Jacksonville State - 89
Murray State - 195
Tennessee Tech - 193
Stephen F Austin - 104
Belmont - 191

Average RPI - 177

That's all I'm saying. Unlike football or even basketball, there can be legit players at lesser known schools. But shirley the caliber of competition has to count for something.

Breaking down your numbers further, his 10 W's came against teams with an average RPI of 202 and his 4 L's against teams with an average RPI of 115 but that is skewed due to losing to Tennessee Tech with an RPI of 193.

 

[KurtRambis4]

I'm not

saying he's the second coming of Cy Young, but at the same time, a pitcher's W-L record is not very important. Not to go all Will James on you.

 

[keffer21]

saying he's the second coming of Cy Young, but at the same time, a pitcher's W-L record is not very important. Not to go all Will James on you.

I hear ya, and I agree on the W-L. But his road ERA being nearly double does mean something to me. That is including his no hitter @ RPI 271 AR Pine Bluff.