Are we now assured we have a SECT bye or

[TBone.sixpack]

Is that still in play?

 

[tatedog]

Is that still in play?

If Ole Miss wins out and we lose out, Ole Miss and A&M would get the first round byes.

eta: Technically LSU could still pass us and Ole Miss too.

 

[TBone.sixpack]

All kinds of stuff to play for.

 

[tatedog]

Winning just one more game vs Arkansas would eliminate most all possibilities that would cause a signing day level meltdown.

 

[maroonmania]

If Ole Miss wins out and we lose out, Ole Miss and A&M would get the first round byes.

eta: Technically LSU could still pass us and Ole Miss too.

We are not going to lose out but even if we did the Bears are not going to win out. But I guess it is still a theoretical possibility.

 

[thekimmer]

I think so. Its complicated but we are very close.

Is that still in play?

Top six teams. Here is the closest scenario I can think of that would jeopardize top 4

UF 18-8 3 left Loses next 3 18-11 Out of top 4
MSU 19-9 2 left Loses next 2 19-11 Tied for 3-5
TAM 19-9 2 left Loses next 2 19-11 Tied for 3-5
USC 18-9 2 left Wins next 2 20-9 SEC CHamps
LSU 17-10 2 left Wins next 3 20-11 Second seed-West champs
UM 17-11 2 left Wins next 2 19-11 Tied for 3-5

Under this scenario we would be tied for 3-5 spots with TAM and UM. Record vs common opponents MSU 2-4 UM 3-3 TAM 4-2. TAM gets #3 and UM gets #4. There is at least one more scenario where they'd be a four way tie. Bottom line is it would take an LSU sweep of UF, UM winning two at TAM and us losing two at home vs ark to even make it a discussion and based on those odds I'm pretty comfortable we have a day 1 bye in the bag.

 

[tatedog]

Yes those possibilities are strictly from a mathematical standpoint. A&M isn't losing to Ole Miss, much less at home. I would be less shocked at an LSU sweep of Florida than Ole Miss getting one win.

 

[TBone.sixpack]

We clinched the bye tonight.

 

[nsvltndog]

We clinched the bye tonight.

I'm not sure that is true. If LSU sweeps FL, we lose to ARK, and the Bears beat A&M, you would have LSU, MSU, and A&M all at 20-10. I believe the SEC tie-breaker first examines the combined head to head record of the 3 teams in the case of a 3 way tie. In that scenario, A&M would be 5-1; LSU 3-3; MSU 2-4.

If that is correct, we are literally in a position with 1 game left where we can finish anywhere from SEC Champions and the #1 seed with a win tomorrow and an A&M loss as a best case scenario, but we have a worst case scenario of the #5 seed if all 4 games go in the wrong direction.

 

[thekimmer]

The only prob with that scenario is.

I'm not sure that is true. If LSU sweeps FL, we lose to ARK, and the Bears beat A&M, you would have LSU, MSU, and A&M all at 20-10. I believe the SEC tie-breaker first examines the combined head to head record of the 3 teams in the case of a 3 way tie. In that scenario, A&M would be 5-1; LSU 3-3; MSU 2-4.

If that is correct, we are literally in a position with 1 game left where we can finish anywhere from SEC Champions and the #1 seed with a win tomorrow and an A&M loss as a best case scenario, but we have a worst case scenario of the #5 seed if all 4 games go in the wrong direction.

Lsu would not be 3-3. They would be 2-4 and we hold the tie breaker against them.

 

[o_1984Dawg]

We'd still be the 4 seed. 18-11 UF would be the 5.