Post Mid-week games RPI update

[EminenceBunt]

We moved up 18 spots since last Wednesday and sit at #28 right now. If we can take 2 of 3 from Florida, a national seed should become an expectation for us. HUGE series this weekend.

-Florida (#1): 22-0 @ home
-Ole Miss (#4): +5 from last midweek
-South Alabama (#9): +2 from last midweek
-Vandy (#10): +11
-A&M (#12): +2
-FAU (#15): +39
-USM (#16): -1
-LSU (#25): -6
-UGA (#59): -9
-Troy (#60):
-USC (#65): +16, (13-14) on the year
-Bama (#71): -7
-UCLA (#73): -46, (12-14) on the year
-Mizzou (#91): +44
-Oral Roberts (#96): +38
-Oregon (#111): -1, (11-11) on the year
-ULM (#129): +22
-Arkansas (#131):
-Auburn (#134): -3
-Oklahoma (#127): +20, (15-14-1) on the year
-Eastern Kentucky (#181): +21
-Memphis (#219):
-Nichols State (#228): +60
-UTM (#276): -6
-Alcorn (#289):
-Valley (#299):

The Dodger Classic is still killing us. Oregon is a disapointment at 11-11, lost to both Notre Dame and Michigan State this weekend. Lots of room for us to grow going into the weekend.

 

[57stratdawg]

Thanks for putting this together. Our RPI will begin to settle in some over the course of the next few weeks. Going 3-3 over the next two weekends should put us on the top 10.

 

[engie]

Top 20? Not bad for a bunch of freshmenz without a coach**

It is pretty crazy that prettymuch our entire noncon is worse than they were supposed to be. Usually settles into the middle with some being better, some being worse, others being the same...

 

[OleMissLogo]

It is pretty crazy that prettymuch our entire noncon is worse than they were supposed to be. Usually settles into the middle with some being better, some being worse, others being the same...

As always, it depends on how you look at it.

Using a 3-year RPI average, then these teams are currently overperforming:
Alcorn State
Eastern Kentucky
Florida Atlantic (2x)
Massachusetts-Lowell (2x)
South Alabama
Southern Miss
Tennessee-Martin
Troy
ULM
USC

And these teams are underperforming:
Memphis
Mississippi Valley State
Nicholls State (2x)
Oklahoma
Oral Roberts
Oregon (3x)
South Dakota State (2x)
UCLA



In fact, using just last year's RPI (which you are so fond of using), only USC drops down from Overperforming to Underperforming. And of those that are Underperforming, it includes MVSU who is currently 299 in RPI and has a 3-Year Avg of 298.

Simply put, no, your entire noncon is not worse than they were supposed to be. It's about 50/50.

And I know you will come back saying that you said "pretty much our entire noncon" but in no possible definition does that fit. Teams that you play 11 games against are overperforming their 3-Year Avg and teams you play 13 games against are underperforming.

 

[rugbdawg]

That Oregon series continues to be a huge kick in the groin.

Vandy series win is probably going to end up being THE best road series win of the year for ANY team in the country...unless we can somehow miraculously get two from Florida.

 

[Arthur2478]

-Arkansas (#131):
-Auburn (#134): -3

Our final 6 regular season games are versus these two. Hopefully a season's worth of SEC games will help increase their numbers.

 

[OleMissLogo]

Vandy series win is probably going to end up being THE best road series win of the year for ANY team in the country...unless we can somehow miraculously get two from Florida.

At least those are 3 Ws. Oregon is underperforming (though not as bad when you just compare vs 2015), but if it were a 2-1 weekend it would be dragging you even worse.

The biggest underperformers are Memphis (128 below 3-Year Avg), and Nicholls State (106 below). Biggest overperformers are South Alabama (75 above) and ULM (65 above).

 

[99jc]

Your dreaming if you think we take 2 outta 3 from florida we will be lucky to

At least those are 3 Ws. Oregon is underperforming (though not as bad when you just compare vs 2015), but if it were a 2-1 weekend it would be dragging you even worse.

The biggest underperformers are Memphis (128 below 3-Year Avg), and Nicholls State (106 below). Biggest overperformers are South Alabama (75 above) and ULM (65 above).

win one game!

 

[OleMissLogo]

Our final 6 regular season games are versus these two. Hopefully a season's worth of SEC games will help increase their numbers.

Yea those 2 (right now) are perfect examples of two separate things that can doom an RPI:

FAuburn has played 10 Top 50 games (good) and only 5 sub-200 games (good, though they lost 1), but they are 12-9 at home. Those 9 home losses are killing them. Their adjusted record is 10.7-16.8 due to those home losses. (So their already bad 14-15 record is actually inflated.)

Arkansas on the other hand has 14 sub-200 games vs only 7 Top 50 games (2-5 record). It also doesn't help Arkansas that they have 0 away games before SEC play (3 neutral)

 

[OleMissLogo]

Your dreaming if you think we take 2 outta 3 from florida we will be lucky to win one game!

The starting pitching matchups will be good that weekend. I think the only result that would surprise me would be an MSU sweep (due to Sunday starter being a ?).

I could see a Florida sweep in some like 2-1 or 3-2 games on Friday and Saturday, but I could also see MSU winning both of those, also 3-2 or 2-1.

Or it could turn into a slugfest because narratives be damned.

 

[8dog]

To be fair, alcorn and tn martin are underperforming vs last yr. their rank may be better but the raw win perc used make them worse.

Point being its hard tonjudge this based solely on rank especially since our opp rpi is based only 25% on their record and 50% on their opponents. Meanwhile their record impacts us 50% and their opp record 25%.

 

[OleMissLogo]

True it's not the best way of looking at it, I just like point out to engie that he's wrong.

 

[8dog]

Thats funny.

 

[engie]

It's funny how badly my posts bother you -- yet you do the exact same thing in yours. How much effort did you put in to deciding that 3 years was the way to go on determining how well we scheduled? My guess is you put in enough to determine that it was the maximum data point to skew into your favor. Yet you still didn't go into any detail. Because details would go against your skew.

Fact: Oregon, USC, UCLA, Ok, fau, USM, OM, South Ala -- all ranked of receiving votes in preseason. But this is where you tell me that scheduling is done midsession -- and who a team was 3 years ago determines who they were supposed to be this year. Wait -- can't use that one -- because you've already argued your *** off that last year is a poor indicator of intended SOS. But you don't know what intended means either -- so I already know I wasted my time on all of this

 

[OleMissLogo]

Actually I had the data for 3-year and 5-year, but they were the same (swapping a team in each category), so I didn't see the need to post both. But if you would like, all the info is here: https://www.dropbox.com/s/rok22rkr85f0a1l/State 2016 schedule.xlsx?dl=0

My argument is that, while previous RPI isn't a great indicator of future team strength, using multiple years is a hell of a lot better than a single year, ESPECIALLY when you are INTENDING to schedule tough. Do you really think Cohen and Stricklin took ONLY 2015 RPI into account when planning the 2016 schedule? If so, then they are morons.

If they just said "Hey USC was 27 in RPI last year, so let's do that LA tourney for sure" then they are dumb, because USC is more likely to be 60 or higher than below that.

Also, as I said, even using your own argument (last year's RPI), then no, "Pretty much your noncon entire schedule" is NOT worse than they were supposed to be.